10 Predictions for the 2021 NFL Draft
The 2021 NFL Draft is just a few days away. Here's my thoughts on what I think will happen in the first round.
The 2021 NFL Draft happens later this week, and while I don't have any inside sources, I have spent time observing what other people are reporting, while examining the moves teams have made and the likely ramifications.
Those moves and reports have led me to make 10 predictions for what I think will happen in this week's draft.
We can get two obvious moves out of the way: Trevor Lawrence is going No. 1 overall to the Jaguars and all evidence points to the Jets taking Zach Wilson at No. 2 overall. But what might be less obvious, but what I think is going to happen?
1. Trey Lance goes to the Niners at No. 3 overall.
The Niners have been linked to Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones ever since they traded up to the third overall pick. I suspect, though, that Lance will be the pick.
Simply put, Lance looks like the better fit for Kyle Shanahan's offense, plus he wouldn't be under pressure to start right away. I suspect the Niners will keep Jimmy Garappolo for 2021, then start him to open the season.
At some point, though, whoever the Niners draft will take over as the starter. Lance is said to be the one prospect out of the top four (that means, excluding Jones) who needs more time before he starts, so he would enter the best situation to do that.
2. Justin Fields could slip as far as No. 9 overall.
I do think Fields is the best QB prospect after Lawrence. I think a lot of the concerns raised about Fields are silly. But there are teams who probably aren't going to focus on a QB this year, meaning after the top three picks, Fields is likely to slide a few spots.
I think the Falcons would take Lance but, if he's gone, they'll look elsewhere. The Bengals and Dolphins don't need a QB, and that brings us to the Lions, Panthers and Broncos.
The Panthers traded for Sam Darnold, giving up a 2022 second-round pick, which signals they will give him the next two seasons. The Lions are likely thinking about the 2022 QB class, and that leaves the Broncos, who could be thinking about Fields if he's there at No. 9.
But what if somebody else trades up? Let's get to my next predictions.
3. The Falcons don't trade down and take Kyle Pitts.
Though the Falcons could be a candidate to trade down, I don't think they want to trade out of the top 10. And looking at the rest of the teams in the top 10, I'm not sold on any of them buying into the idea that they have to trade up to get their guy.
And while No. 4 is a high spot to take a tight end, Pitts is arguably the best tight end prospect in years. The Falcons may have traded for Hayden Hurst last year, but that was the previous regime -- the new regime has no loyalty to Hurst.
Besides, why not take Pitts and run two-tight end sets until the defense finds a way to stop it? And because Matt Ryan is still playing well, the Falcons don't have to go the QB route this year.
4. The Dolphins stay put at No. 6, not wanting to trade out of the top 10.
There are reports that the Dolphins spoke to the Broncos about moving down to No. 9. Reportedly, they want to gain additional draft capital for a possible move up the board from No. 18.
However, I wouldn't bet on the Dolphins trading out of the top 10. Why would they do that after they traded up to No. 6 with the Eagles, after their trade with the Niners to move down to No. 12? It doesn't make sense.
I do think the Dolphins will work the phones in hopes of getting somebody to move up, but I don't believe a trade will happen.
5. The Lions trade down, out of the top 10.
The Lions are a rebuilding team and have just six picks this year. They need more draft capital and, therefore, they are a favorite to trade down.
I understand that some people will say the Lions need a QB who can compete with Jared Goff. But rebuilding teams need more than the QB. That's why I think the Lions will pass on this year's class, get as many picks as they can in a move down the board, and focus on the 2022 QB class.
6. The Chargers trade into the top 10, but not for a QB.
Of course, the Chargers have Justin Herbert under center, but they have a major need for offensive linemen. That's why it wouldn't surprise me if they make a move up the board to get one.
I could see the Chargers making a deal with the Lions to get to No. 7 overall, which allows them to get a top offensive lineman. That could be particularly true if the Bengals don't take an offensive lineman at No. 5 overall.
7. The Patriots will trade up for Mac Jones, who slides out of the top 10.
The Patriots approached free agency much differently than they have in the past. When it comes to the draft, they have traded up before, but not in the "blockbuster" sense in which they give up multiple future picks.
In this year's draft, the Patriots have 10 total picks. I could see them moving up the board a few spots, but I don't think they move into the top 10, because that likely would require future picks.
Instead, I think they'll prefer to package their current-year picks together to get a QB, which means the most likely trade will happen to either 11 or 12, after Mac Jones slides out of the top 10 and the Patriots decide they need to ensure they get their guy.
8. The Giants trade down, an unusual practice for Dave Gettleman.
Warren Sharp pointed out that Gettleman has never traded down in the first round as general manager for either the Panthers or the Giants. However, this is a year in which I could see him doing that.
The Giants have just six picks and need more young talent to build the team. That's why I can see the Giants and Patriots making a draft-day trade, allowing the Giants to add more capital in the hopes of finding those final pieces to get back to the playoffs.
9. The Ravens will move up the board, but not into the top 10.
I can see the Ravens using the first-round pick they got from the Chiefs in the Orlando Brown trade to make a move up the board, but I don't see them making a bold move up the board.
If Eric DeCosta follows Ozzie Newsome's philosophy, he'll bide his time and watch how the picks fall, then make his move somewhere in the middle of the first round. He could get a pass rusher at that point, or he could get a wide receiver who, while not one of the top three, could still be a pretty good player.
10. The Colts will trade down from No. 21 overall.
Colts general manager Chris Ballard likes to build through the draft and he has just six picks this year. That tells me he'll be thinking about a trade down from No. 21 overall.
At that point, there could be several pass rushers and offensive tackles available. While the Colts need both, I suspect Ballard will want to look for better value in those positions and get additional capital.