10 Things to Keep in Mind on NFL Draft Day
You won't hit every pick, every year, but there are ways to give you the best chance of hitting on a pick.
Every year, the NFL draft gets the analysts talking, the fans intrigued and the players waiting to find out who gets the call that an NFL teams wants them to join the roster.
Year after year, you'll hear people talk about who is a great pick, who is a bust, who is a steal or who is going to become one of these three labels in the future.
What many people don't talk about enough is what's the best way to approach a draft to maximize your chances for success.
There are plenty of draft pick value charts, ways to analyze trades and valulation tables for each position, but some of this can lead to overthinking if you aren't careful.
I'm here to help you all keep it simple. Here are 10 things I believe are important to remember if you want to have the best chance of a successful draft.
1. Don't expect to score a hit with every pick.
You will find that the later in a draft you go, the higher the chance that the player you select won't work out. Because this is the case, you can't expect to get a top starter with every pick.
Therefore, focus on finding potential starters in the earlier rounds, while concentrating on depth and special teams in later rounds. If you find a starter in a later round, that's great -- but remember that they are called steals for a reason.
2. Keep in mind what to expect from each round.
Following on the first point, it's the first round in which you want to find those long-term starters. You want to find a player that you expect will get a new contract after his rookie deal expires.
In the second round, you want short-term starters who might be worth that second contract. The third round is where you want significant contributors, preferably short-term starters, but you might not extend them when their rookie deals expire.
The fourth round is when you should think about quality depth players who might be kept in that capacity. In the fifth through seventh rounds, this is where you find depth at best and such players may not make the final roster.
Anybody expecting a starter from every round is expecting too much.
3. It's all right to take chances later in the draft.
Because the fourth through seventh rounds are those in which it's harder to hit, and thus you should think of them more as the time to find depth, it's fine to roll the dice on a player with serious questions.
Whether it's a player with an injury history, a player with off-field issues or a player with raw talent but plenty of upside, you can take a chance on Day 3 of the draft. If it works out, that's great, but if it doesn't, you at least weren't using a higher-round pick on the player.
4. Top 10 picks need to become impact players.
A team that is drafting in the top 10 is most likely a team that failed to make the playoffs. Therefore, these teams need to find a player who develops into an elite talent, giving them a building block toward becoming a playoff contender.
But the same applies to a team who acquired the pick in a trade. Whether it's a team trading up on or before draft day, or a team that acquired the pick a year earlier and it became a top 10 pick, this is the part of the draft in which you need to find those impact players.
5. Focus on the premium positions in the first round.
The premium positions are, in order of importance: quarterback, pass rusher, offensive tackle, wide receiver and cornerback. Because these players tend to receive the largest veteran contracts, the low-cost first-round pick contracts become more desirable for these positions.
Furthermore, because these positions have a greater impact on bringing a team to the next level, it makes more sense to emphasize these positions in the first round.
6. Other positions are best taken on day two.
Off-ball linebacker, tight end, interior offensive line (guard and center), safety and running back don't carry as much importance as other positions. Therefore, avoid them in the first round whenever possible and wait until the second and third rounds.
There may be an argument for taking all but the running back position late in the first round. However, that only comes if the quality of talent at premium positions isn't great, or if the team is already set at those positions.
With running backs, there's no point in taking them in the first round because you don't get much value in return. Better to wait until day two, when the value in return is higher.
7. Only quarterbacks justify a trade up the board.
We see teams pursue players all the time in a draft, to the point they believe they must trade up. However, most trades up don't work out as expected.
There is a good argument for trading up to select a quarterback, because it has the greatest potential to turn a team's fortunes. With other positions, there isn't enough impact to justify a move up the board.
If you're going to do it, though, make sure you have plenty of draft capital. If you are low on picks, better to trade down if at all possible.
8. If you can't trade down, stick to your board.
Sometimes teams will determine that the players available when their pick comes up aren't worth taking. Trading down is ideal in such cases, but it's not always possible (especially if teams follow the advice to avoid trading up).
This means that, if you have nobody who wants to trade, you should take the player who tops your board. This means forgetting about those who claim it's a reach, and it may mean forgetting bits of advice I already gave.
But you shouldn't second-guess your draft board on draft day. Once you've got it set, go with it and don't worry about what others think.
9. Quarterbacks may be worth taking in the first even when people say they aren't.
Consider that the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL draft is expected to get a four-year contract for a little more than $40M. That's a pretty good deal for most positions and is particularly good for a quarterback.
That doesn't mean you have to take the QB at No. 1 overall. Sometimes it won't be a good draft class, meaning it might be better to focus on another position.
However, teams in need of a QB should consider taking one, even if it's not the best draft class. Because you get better value in return, it may be worth taking a chance.
The teams that might have the best chance for success are those who made the playoffs but had their starting QB retire. Such teams may have a good roster in place that they can take a chance on a QB not considered worth a top 10 pick.
After all, when you drop down to, say, the 25th overall pick in this year's draft, he'll get a contract worth about $15M over four years. Would you rather spend that money on a veteran in which there's no question that he's a backup at best? Or would you rather chance that money on a young QB prospect who might surprise people and turn out to be pretty good?
10. Don't panic.
Sometimes a player you like gets taken by another team before it's your turn to pick. If that should happen, some teams might talk themselves into taking a similar player at that position when he's not the top guy on their draft board.
Other times, you may find yourself looking at players who are raw in terms of development but have potential to become a top player. You took such a player the year before and, now, you’re afraid to take a similar player at any point.
These are both instances in which you are making panic moves. Reacting to what other teams do, or reacting to what you've done in the past, can lead you to making mistakes.
If a player you like goes off the board, stick to your board and look at who is ranked next. If a player who needs a lot of development falls down the board, and you've had bad luck in the past with such players, it may still be worth taking the player, especially if it's on day three.
You should always learn from past mistakes but not dwell on them. Additionally, you shouldn't sweat too much if somebody takes a player you like, because chances are you'll find another, even if he plays a different position.
These things won't guarantee you success in the draft, but they will give you a better chance at success than overthinking the process. Overthinking seldom leads to draft success.