2024 NFL Draft: Four Who Should Move Up, Four Who Should Move Down
Some teams are better positioned to move up in the first round, while others should think about a move down.
I've previously talked about whether it makes more sense to move up or down the draft board and examined notable moves involving draft pick swaps.
With the 2024 NFL Draft just days away, I now ask this question: Which teams are in the best position to move up or down the draft board, given their current rosters?
I wouldn't be surprised to see the majority of draft analysts believe that the Minnesota Vikings are going to move up the draft board. They need a quarterback (and Sam Darnold is only signed to a one-year deal), their general manager and head coach are about to start their third seasons and they recently acquired an additional 2024 first-round pick from the Texans.
One thing to keep in mind about the Vikings' trade is that they gave up a 2025 second-round pick in the deal. They have nine total picks in the 2024 draft, but other than their two firsts, they have seven picks in the fourth round or later. Also, they are likely to get a third-round compensatory pick in 2025 after Kirk Cousins signed with the Atlanta Falcons.
Would it make sense for the Vikings to trade up? That depends on what it costs to make the move and how much they love a particular quarterback. If they were to move up to No. 3, for example, it will likely cost them at least both 2024 firsts. The question then moves to what additional picks they would have to give up.
I would say that a trade up for the Vikings would make sense if they are convinced that an available QB is the guy they can build around.
But what about other teams? While there are plenty of teams who are in need of quarterbacks, it may not make sense for all of them to trade up.
Teams that have a QB in place, though, could be well positioned to move up the board. Meanwhile, teams that need a QB, but have other needs as well, might be better positioned to move down.
I've identified four teams who have their QBs who may want to think about moving up the board and four teams who, regardless of their QB situations, may want to think about moving down.
We'll also determine if it's possible for these teams to pair up with one another to make moves up or down the board work out.
Let's start with the four teams who should think about moving up.
Green Bay Packers From Pick No. 25: The Packers enter the 2024 NFL Draft with 11 total picks, which include two second-round pick and two third-round picks. That gives them five picks in the first two days of the draft.
The Packers recently cut offensive tackle David Bahktiari and might want to draft his replacement. They also saw Jordan Love improve at quarterback throughout 2023 and they have plenty of young wide receivers.
If the Packers see an offensive tackle they like, they might want to consider utilizing one of their extra second- or third-round picks to move up a few spots.
Arizona Cardinals From Pick No. 27: First of all, take note that the Cardinals have two first-round picks. I'm not suggesting that they trade down from pick No. 4 (and they certainly don't need to trade up from that spot).
But pick No. 27 is one the Cardinals could work with in a move up the board. If, say, they choose to address wide receiver at No. 4 (perhaps Marvin Harrison Jr.), they could think about moving up from No. 27 to ensure they get a pass rusher.
The Cardinals have three picks in the third round and could utilize one in a move up the board. They could always trade down in the third if they want to get an additional pick to address depth.
Buffalo Bills From Pick No. 28: The Bills are revamping their roster, given their salary cap issues. Some might wonder if it makes sense for the Bills to trade up the draft board if that is the case.
But the Bills already have their quarterback in place and they could use a wide receiver. And while they don't have a third-round pick this year, they have eight day-three picks and could use one or more of them to move up a few spots.
What might help the Bills with a move up the board is they are expected to get two compensatory picks in 2025. That means they would be in a solid position with draft capital that year, which could make up for any draft picks they would give up in a move up the board.
San Francisco 49ers From Pick No. 31: The Niners are nearing the point in which they may have to make some decisions about their roster. One in particular is a possible extension for quarterback Brock Purdy?
However, trading up in the first wouldn't be a bad idea this year, given that the Niners have 10 total picks with three in the fourth round. That draft capital would allow them to jump a few spots to get a young player -- perhaps an offensive tackle or, if they plan to trade Brandon Aiyuk, a wide receiver.
Trading Aiyuk would be a way to gain more draft picks, but the Niners are also expected to have four compensatory picks in 2025. They would thus be in a good position next year to find young talent, to the point that they could afford to give up some draft picks this year to make a move up the first.
Now let's look at four teams who should think about moving down the draft board.
New York Giants From Pick No. 6: Obviously, the Giants need a quarterback. But they're short on draft capital as well. They have just five picks, though they do have three in the first three rounds.
The Giants have done a decent job of drafting players in recent years but may want to look at getting more picks to fill out the roster. They have signed Drew Lock to be a backup and Tommy DeVito wasn't terrible, so it's not a given they are focused on QB in this year's draft.
Now, if the Giants see a QB they love at No. 6 overall, they should take him. But if they aren't sold on the QBs available, trading down is the better bet if they can find a partner.
Chicago Bears From Pick No. 9 (NOT Pick No. 1): I put the note about the first overall pick in place to let Bears fan know that, yes, your team should be taking Caleb Williams with the No. 1 pick.
But what about No. 9 overall? The Bears have just four total picks and, while they have acquired some talented players in trades, they could use more.
Because the wide receiver and edge rusher prospects are plentiful, the Bears can afford to trade down from No. 9 and get more picks. Then they can add a pass rusher to pair with Montez Sweat, a wide receiver to eventually take over for Keenan Allen (and pair with DJ Moore) and even a cornerback to pair with Jaylon Johnson.
Denver Broncos From Pick No. 12: We have yet another team that needs a quarterback. However, the Broncos have a lot of roster needs, to the point that a QB isn't going to be enough to turn things around.
Now, if the Broncos truly love a particular QB and that QB is available, I'm fine with them being aggressive to get that QB. But if they aren't convinced that they can get their guy, better to trade down.
Doing so allows the Broncos to go the route of building the roster overall, while doing what they can at QB. They should draft a quarterback at some point, but by trading down, they could take a QB late in the first round or acquire a second in a move down, then use the second on a QB.
Miami Dolphins From Pick No. 21: The Dolphins have just six total picks in this year's draft. They are expected to get three compensatory picks in 2025, but could use more draft capital this year.
By moving down a few spots, the Dolphins could pick up extra picks to fill roster holes after certain players departed in free agency. It would also put them in a better position to build around a quarterback, whether that's Tua Tagovailoa or somebody else.
The other thing to consider is where the Dolphins need the most help. They do need to think about an offensive tackle but they need interior offensive linemen as well. Such players can easily be found in the later rounds, so the Dolphins can add more late-round picks in a move down to find interior offensive linemen.
Final Thoughts
Would it be possible to pair the four teams who I think should move up with the four teams I think should move down? I'm not sure if I can make such pairings work, but in a couple of cases, it may be possible.
With the Broncos, a trade with the Packers may be doable. The Packers could send a second and a third to get an offensive tackle they want, while the Broncos could think about a QB at No. 25 overall, then utilize the added picks to address other needs.
With the Dolphins, the Niners and Cardinals both make sense. The Dolphins might be able to convince the Cardinals to send No. 90 overall (the last of the third-round picks the Cardinals have) to move down a few spots.
The Bears may have to look for a team that likes to be aggressive. I look at the Saints as the prime example of a team that has been aggressive before. It's possible the Saints could feel pressure to win now and the Bears could take advantage.
The Giants may be likely to deal with a team who wants a QB. If the Vikings do move ahead of the Giants for a QB, and the Giants don't love the remaining QBs, I could them opting to move down and get more picks. They could always take a chance on a QB in later rounds, particularly if they acquire an additional second-round pick. Perhaps the Raiders show interest in moving up or another team surprises and makes a bold move up the board for a QB.
As for the Bills, they may be a team that moves up a few spots rather than making a bold move. While one can't rule out the Bills trading with a divisional rival like the Dolphins, they might be a team that swaps picks with the Eagles or Cowboys to get a player they want.
Now, with the draft just a couple of days away, I may try to put a mock draft together in the coming days. There's no guarantee that will happen, but I'll try.
But what you will see from me in the future is my thoughts about how the 2024 NFL Draft unfolds, to include who did the best job of working the draft board, whether in moving up or down.