After NFL Teams Extend A QB, What's Next?
Let's look at the NFL teams who recently or are nearing position to extend their QB and what roster decisions must be made.
Back in 2020, Patrick Mahomes signed a 10-year contract with the Kansas City Chiefs that made him the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL. Some people marveled about how Mahomes got such a great payday.
Meanwhile, there were others who pointed out that the Mahomes deal was actually a great deal for the Chiefs. And now, as you look at today's environment, the ones who pointed out it was a great deal for the Chiefs were right.
As we've seen in the quarterback market, it's not unusual to see the next player up for an extension to re-set the market. But it's not just that factor that makes the Mahomes deal look good. It's that the Chiefs have more control over Mahomes because he agreed to a 10-year deal.
We have seen the Chiefs' willingness to renegotiate with Mahomes, but that renegotiation was more about moving money from the back end of the contract to current years. But when you talk about who has been truly re-setting the market, it's been the QBs who signed the more recent extensions.
DeShaun Watson is a unique case, because he got the benefit of a desperate Browns team when that team offered him a five-year, fully guaranteed contract when the Texans allowed Watson to pick his team in trade talks. But others got the benefit simply because the teams that drafted the QB didn't want to risk losing that QB to free agency and trying to find another option.
Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson all fit the description of the QB a team drafted and didn't want to lose. That's why they all surpassed Mahomes.
The question, of course, is how teams are able to keep the roster together once they sign a quarterback to a massive extension. While it's easy to think that the Chiefs have it easy because they have Mahomes, they have to go through the same decision-making process as any other team.
The Chiefs had to make a decision when Tyreek Hill was up for an extension. Their decision was to trade him, after which they found some players who have shown they can fill out the roster. It did come with a price, in that the Chiefs haven't yet found their true No. 1 wide receiver, but they made up for it with quality players found at other positions.
This offseason, the Chiefs made their decision to keep Chris Jones, despite the fact that few players (other than QB and, to an extent, offensive tackle) live up to a third contract. That decision will impact other decisions the Chiefs have to make in the coming years.
However, what may have prompted the Chiefs to make that decision was that the defense played a major role in their latest Super Bowl victory. Furthermore, they've had to make choices elsewhere, such as going with younger players at left tackle — a decision that not only came because of the Jones contract, but because of the contract they gave Jawaan Taylor in the 2023 offseason.
Two decisions the Chiefs have to make are regarding Creed Humphrey and Nick Bolton. They may also have to ask themselves if they can keep Joe Thuney for the final year of his contract. They will be toward the lower end in terms of projected salary cap space for 2025, which will impact their decision making to a degree.
But the fact is, what makes the Chiefs successful is not just that they have Mahomes on a contract that gives them control over his future, but they are willing to make some tough choices. And that's really what teams who have given new contracts to quarterbacks they drafted, or are about to do so, will need to figure out.
The Bills have already started this process. They gave Allen a big extension but have failed to reach the Super Bowl. They made some tough decisions about which players to keep, which to cut, trade or allow to leave in free agency and how to replace them. They learned to accept that they can't keep going with the "just one player away from a Super Bowl" mindset.
Here are decisions other teams with a quarterback who signed a recent extension, or is eligible to do so, will have to make when it comes to the rest of the roster, based on their cap situations and potential free agents in 2025.
Browns: They are projected to be nearly $60M over the cap. They could find themselves in a tricky situation given their current roster.
Jedrick Wills' deal expires after the season, as does Amari Cooper, with significant dead money from void years. They could get cap relief by cutting Jack Conklin, though that may not be advisable. They could get additional relief by extending Greg Newsome II.
The Browns at least don't have a lot of free agents who they must retain. But they are paying the price for their desperation move with Watson. It's going to be tough to improve their situation without finding themselves in the same position the Saints have been in for the past couple of seasons.
Dolphins: The Dolphins are projected to be more than $44M above the cap in 2025. That's assuming a base cap of $260M and, while the actual cap figure could be higher, it won't be enough to keep the Dolphins out of a similar situation to the Bills.
The Dolphins already let multiple free agents depart this offseason. Jevon Holland and Liam Eichenberg would be their top free agents for 2025 but neither may be a priority to extend.
They can get some cap relief by extending Jaelen Phillips, but otherwise, their options are limited beyond doing several restructures. They could extend Tyreek Hill for cap relief, too, but they have to ask themselves if he can continue his current pace.
Niners: Set aside the question about whether or not Brock Purdy is a top quarterback. Regardless of what the Niners do with Purdy, they are projected to be nearly $39M above the cap in 2025.
Even before considering Purdy's future, the Niners have to sort out the Brandon Aiyuk situation, which appears likely to be him leaving in free agency — assuming the Niners don't trade him this season. They also have Trent Williams seeking a new deal and a couple of pending free agents they may want to keep.
The Niners may be the favorite to win the NFC but they are at the same crossroads that the Bills have been at. Some tough roster decisions will have to be made because it's not going to be possible to keep the band together, especially if Purdy's play in 2024 settles the question of whether or not he's the guy to build around.
Eagles: We've seen Howie Roseman find ways to make things work from a roster standpoint in the past. For example, we aren't far removed from the Eagles trading Carson Wentz, despite massive dead money charges.
At the time, they had Jalen Hurts on a cheap contract. Now, Hurts is on an expensive extension and it would be much harder to trade him, even after they acquired Kenny Pickett in a trade with the Steelers. Even a post-June 1 cut wouldn't help the Eagles.
This is likely a situation in which the Eagles may not have a choice but to move forward with Hurts. They do have some cap space available to carry over next year, but from a roster standpoint, it's likely going to be the Eagles sticking with Hurts, regardless of what he does this season.
Ravens: For the most part, the Ravens have been good about roster management. However, after falling short in the playoffs last year, they need to be careful about where they go with the roster in the coming seasons.
They are projected to be slightly above the cap in 2025, but they don't have free agents who are a priority to retain — though if Ronnie Stanley plays well in 2024, that could change.
For the Ravens, they simply need to avoid going "all in" on somebody in free agency if they fall short of the Super Bowl again. They can make a few tweaks to the roster, but as long as they leave it at that, they should be in good shape.
Bengals: While the Bengals will be in good shape from a cap standpoint, they still have to face the facts: Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase both want to be among the highest paid wide receivers in the NFL. For that reason, the Bengals can afford to keep one but not both.
It's fair to say the Bengals shouldn't have to re-set the market with either player (meaning they don't have to surpass Justin Jefferson). However, Chase is going to get paid more than at least Amon-Ra St. Brown and might surpass AJ Brown.
I had advocated for the Bengals to trade Higgins this past offseason. A trade didn't happen, meaning the Bengals may need to accept not using the tag again in 2025 and let Higgins seek his fortunes elsewhere.
Jaguars: The Jaguars should be in a solid position from a cap standpoint. Their main concern is what to do at offensive tackle because Cam Robinson will be a free agent in 2025.
Robinson isn't a top tackle so the Jaguars might be fine to let him walk and draft a replacement. Otherwise, they don't have a lot of pressing decisions to make with the roster.
The bigger question might be how content they are with Doug Pedersen as head coach. With the Texans having improved and the Colts hoping to contend with a healthy Anthony Richardson, the AFC South will be tougher this season and some might question whether Pedersen can keep the Jaguars in the divisional hunt.
Packers: After signing Jordan Love to an extension, the Packers are projected to be toward the lower end of available cap space for 2025.
The good news is the Packers don't have any "must retain" free agents for 2025. But they will have to make the decision to sit out free agency, other than looking for value, and focus on the draft.
The big question for the Packers is this: While Love did play well in 2023, can he keep it up? If he does, the Packers are in good shape, but if not, it's going to be a challenge for the Packers to navigate their situation in the future.
Chargers: The Chargers have already started the process of tearing down the roster around Justin Herbert. They will be in a better position next season, given that they are projected to be about $43M above the cap in 2025.
They will probably let Khalil Mack depart in free agency and will be in position to cut Joey Bosa if they wish. Asante Samuel Jr. is a free agent they could re-sign and they will likely be extending Rashawn Slater, but they don't have other free agents who are a priority to retain.
For the Chargers, it's about understanding that they need to keep rebuilding the roster around Herbert. They shouldn't assume all is well if they make the playoffs this year, because more work lies ahead.
Lions: The Lions are actually in good shape from a cap standpoint, because they are projected to be more than $44M above the cap in 2025. They don't have a lot of free agent decisions to make, either.
For the Lions, it's probably less about the roster itself and more about the coaching staff. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson interviewed for several head coaching jobs after the 2023 season and, if the Lions have another strong season, he may be a hotter candidate.
If Johnson leaves, will the Lions find the offensive coordinator that gets the most out of Jared Goff and company? That's the real question they have to answer.
Cowboys: While there's a lot of focus on their situations with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons, it's not a question of cap space. The Cowboys are projected to have about $65M in cap space in 2025.
The main concern for the Cowboys is this: How far do we want to go with extensions for these players? Also, how much are we willing to stick to our guns in terms of the length of the deals? (Keep in mind the Cowboys tend to prefer extensions of five years or longer.)
The Cowboys can argue that Lamb shouldn't re-set the receiver market, though they may need to be pay him AJ Brown money. They will have a harder time not re-setting the market with Parsons, who should surpass Bosa. As for Prescott, I don't think the Cowboys have to go $60M APY, but they will probably need to do a slight re-set and stick with a four-year deal again.
Cardinals: Of all the teams that have quarterbacks either on or about to become expensive extensions, the Cardinals have the least to worry about. This is a team that is still rebuilding and is behaving accordingly.
The Cardinals are expected to have about $87M in cap space — and that's before carryover comes into play. They may let the majority of their free agents depart and focus on players that fit what the current coaching staff wants.
The only question they have to ask is whether or not they think Kyler Murry is the QB to build around. They could use a post-June 1 cut to move on or they could trade him. But if they decide to stick with Murray, they are at least in a good position to build around him.