An Early 2023 Free Agency Preview: The Offense
While we've just started NFL Week 5, it never hurts to look at potential free agents and ask who might be in position to cash in.
While just four weeks and a couple of Week 5 games have been played thus far in the NFL, it never hurts for teams to plan ahead when thinking about the 2023 offseason.
Front offices are always scouting college prospects, evaluating their own players and watching the film of other teams to identify players who, if they hit free agency in the future, might be worth a look.
After a 2022 offseason in which a lot of trades happened and plenty of big money contracts got rolled out, the question is whether we can expect the same thing in 2023.
This week, I'm looking at the most notable offensive players who, at this point, are eligible for free agency in 2023. We'll find out who might get the most headlines in free agency, if anybody will, and what that means for teams exploring the market.
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson is off to a strong start and, if that keeps up, it will be hard to argue he doesn't deserve to be one of the NFL's highest paid quarterbacks. However, if he is specifically seeking the DeShaun Watson five-year, fully guaranteed deal, does that mean he'll get that?
My opinion remains that Jackson should seek the Kirk Cousins deal, in which he signs for three years but gets a fully guaranteed deal, because that gives him the most leverage. He can either get the Ravens to tack on additional years when they need cap space or he has the chance to reset the market again as QB salaries continue to rise.
Elsewhere, Baker Mayfield isn't helping his case for a long-term deal, while Geno Smith might be the biggest surprise among NFL QBs. In Smith's case, he's not going to re-set the market, but teams have still shown a willingness to pay a fair sum for a QB who plays like a starter. Will there be such a team in 2023?
Tom Brady is the other notable name, but I imagine that, if he wants to play in 2023, he'll stay with the Buccaneers. There really isn't an incentive for him to switch teams.
Running back
Many analysts will warn you not to overpay for running backs, and right now, we have an example in which the "caveat emptor" philosophy could kick in: Saquon Barkley.
After missing the bulk of multiple seasons because of injuries, Barkley is having his best season as a pro. However, because he was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 draft, he's collecting a high salary for running backs under the fifth-year option.
The Giants could just put the franchise tag on him and have him play under it for a year. However, if he hits free agency, Barkley is likely to use his 2022 salary as a negotiating point. If just one team thinks he's worth the money, we will have yet another debate about whether or not it's wise to pay big money to running backs.
Wide receiver
The most notable wide receivers whose deals were to expire after 2022 have been extended. The majority of the players who are set to become free agents are either older players or those who don't play a lot of snaps.
DJ Chark took a one-year "prove it" deal from the Lions, but he hasn't yet reached the level of play that would warrant a deal near the top of the market. Mack Hollins has played well for the Raiders, but he's 30 years old. Do you want to pay a receiver like him a large sum?
Unless a younger receiver breaks out in the coming weeks, it's not likely you'll see one re-set the market in 2023. There could be those who get one-year deals in the $10M range, but multi-year deals appear less likely.
Tight end
Mike Gesicki and Dalton Schultz got the franchise tag but didn't come to terms with their respective teams on new contracts. Thus far, they have been solid but not the type of player who should be paid at the top of the market.
Could either the Dolphins or Cowboys could use the franchise tag for the second straight year? Doing so would be a little more than $13M. While you can't rule out the tag, it's not the best way to utilize resources for a non-premium position.
Other tight ends who will hit the open market in 2023 are likely to be the types who have to take short-term deals. Therefore, unless Gesicki or Schultz gets a big extension, don't expect a lot of significant movement.
Offensive tackle
For left tackles, all eyes will be on Orlando Brown, who didn't come to terms with the Chiefs on an extension and signed a one-year deal for the franchise tag amount. His play has been solid but not great.
If he remains solid but not great, the Chiefs will have to ask if it's worth paying him top dollar or if it's better to consider other options. While a second tag can't be ruled out, that would cost the Chiefs $19.9M and it's not likely Brown would be quick to sign it.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys are getting better play than expected from Terence Steele, who has entered the lineup after injuries to Tyron Smith and Jason Peters. Steele is a restricted free agent, but if he continues to play well, he could get the first-round RFA tender to dissuade other teams from signing him to an offer sheet.
Trey Pipkins of the Chargers has stepped in for the injured Rashawn Slater and, if he plays well, could turn that into a long-term deal from another team. Isaiah Wynn and Greg Little have been solid and, while they probably won't re-set the market, teams in need of a left tackle could be interested.
As for right tackles, Jawaan Taylor and Mike McGlinchey are two of the most notable players, but their current teams have a lot of money invested in left tackle. It's possible they hit free agency in 2023.
Kaleb McGary has played well for the Falcons and might be retained, given that the Falcons will have a lot of cap room next year and may draft a quarterback in 2023. The Chiefs' Andrew Wylie is a name to watch -- if the Chiefs do decide to bring back Brown, will they be able to do the same with Wylie?
Interior offensive line
Offensive guards frequently hit free agency and, though Quinton Nelson re-set the market, he was a former top 10 pick. The guards who are set to become free agents aren't in that category.
Ben Powers, Issac Seumalo, Dalton Risner, Jon Feliciano Nate Davis and Will Hernandez are the guards getting the most playing time right now. None of them are playing at a level that justifies a deal at the top of the market but could be a good fit in certain schemes and, thus, worth a lower-cost deal.
As for center, those who are set to hit free agency aren't likely to re-set the market. Connor McGovern may be the best of these players, but that doesn't guarantee he hits the top of the market. Jake Brendel, Ethan Pocic, Austin Blythe and Garrett Bradbury might excel in the right scheme, but that means a lower-cost deal is the best option.