An NFL Team Trio With Tough Cap Decisions Ahead
The Saints, Buccaneers and Packers all had playoff aspirations, but are underachieving and have cap trouble for 2023.
The Denver Broncos gave Russell Wilson a five-year, $245M extension prior to the season and, going into this morning’s game, they were 2-5 and Wilson has struggled.
The Broncos did get the win Sunday morning in London, but the contract Wilson signed remains a big question. It ties the Broncos to Wilson through 2023 no matter what, and continues to do so through 2025 unless he retires or is traded.
However, the Broncos can take some comfort in knowing that they are projected to have about $31.5M in cap space for 2023 and, though they have only 40 players under contract, they have ways to free up more space by moving on from a player or two.
For other teams who have committed a lot of money or cap space to making a playoff push and aren't living up to expectations, though, it's going to be a tougher hill to climb.
Let's look at three of the teams who were thinking about the playoffs in 2022, leveraged a lot this year and now have some difficult decisions to make in 2023, even if they manage to turn things around in the second half of the season.
New Orleans Saints
"The Saints have serious cap problems" has become an annual ritual. After falling short of a Super Bowl thanks to a missed defensive pass interference call, the Saints have been mortgaging the future in hopes of making that Super Bowl.
But Drew Brees retired, followed by Sean Payton, and yet the Saints continue to approach things as if another Super Bowl is just around the corner. They weren't helped because of the reduced cap during the COVID-19 pandemic, but they continued to push cap hits down the road rather than reassessing their situation.
And this past offseason, they were hopeful to get DeShaun Watson and did more contract restructures to clear space for him. But even if they did get Watson, if everything stayed equal, he would have missed 11 games because of a suspension and the Saints probably would be the same 2-5 they are now.
It's true the NFC isn't strong overall, but the Saints look nothing like a Super Bowl contender. Perhaps they get the No. 7 seed in the playoffs, but that's not something that justifies sacrificing your long-term cap picture to pursue.
The Saints are projected to be $56.3M over the cap and that's with just 38 players under contract. They also currently have no first-round pick in 2023.
I'll let you read Jason Fitzgerald's breakdown of their situation, but needless to say, the Saints are a team that may be thinking about moving on from general manager Mickey Loomis, who has done some good things but is responsible for digging the Saints into this hole. If the Saints keep him, Loomis needs to take time to reassess rather than keep chasing Super Bowl dreams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
At first, Tom Brady was prepared to call it quits, but decided to return for another season. Then Bruce Arians announced his retirement and Todd Bowles took over as head coach. The Buccaneers still believed that another Super Bowl run could be possible.
However, changes on the offensive line between retirements, trades and free agency departures have put the Bucs into a bad situation. They are 3-5 and, though they are still in the running for the NFC South title, they look nothing like a Super Bowl contender.
The Bucs recently lost Shaquil Barrett for the season because of a torn Achilles. They are expected to get center Ryan Jansen back soon, but will that be enough to get them back on track?
Regardless, the Bucs are faced with a tough situation for 2023 as they are projected to be $41.3M over the cap with just 37 players under contract. Brady is not under contract for 2023 and, if he decides to return, the Bucs have to ask themselves how much more restructuring they want to do with other contracts.
This is new territory for the Bucs, who have traditionally avoided using large signing bonuses and keep the bulk of guaranteed money in base salaries. When they did win the Super Bowl two seasons ago, they changed tactics and started using signing bonuses to allow them to fit more players under the cap.
Next season, though, they are going to have to ask if it's worth keeping the band together. If Brady decides to hang it up for good, they'll have to do cap tricks to spread out his dead money hit over two seasons. They'll also have to re-evaluate the roster as a whole, figure out who they need to cut or trade, and may have to ride it out with Kyle Trask for at least a season to determine if he might be the guy moving forward.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers gave Aaron Rodgers a three-year, $150M contract extension that ties him to the team through at least 2023, barring his retirement. They also traded Davante Adams after the receiver requested it.
This season, the Packers sit at 3-4 and, while they are not out of the running for the NFC North title, they have underachieved and the Vikings are doing better than some may have expected. While Rodgers hasn't been bad, it's clear he doesn't trust several of the young receivers he has.
Next season, the Packers are projected to be $3.6M under the cap with 47 players under contract. They aren't in as bad of a situation as the Saints and Bucs, but they do have to look at the roster and decide what comes next.
The Packers do have the option of extending Rashan Gary, which would lower the $10.8M cap number that his fifth-year option carries. However, they need to figure out what to do with several players on expiring deals because of void years, which means they'd carry a dead money charge if they weren't brought back.
And given some of the trust issues Rodgers has with his current receivers, what does that mean when it comes to retaining Allen Lazard or Randall Cobb (the latter who has a void year for 2023)? Will the Packers decide they have to keep at least one and find a way to fit him under the cap? Or do they go back to the draft and risk that the receiver they take is another one who frustrates their quarterback?
Again, the Packers aren't in as difficult a situation as it first appears, but they still have decisions to be made. And it's fair to ask if they can afford to keep kicking the cap can down the road when they can't be certain how much Rodgers has left in the tank.