Are the Niners Really Just A QB Away From the Playoffs Again?

The Niners made a bold move up the 2021 NFL draft board with the QB class in tehir sights. But do they have a team built well, that just needs the right QB?

The San Francisco 49ers made headlines when they traded up to the No. 3 overall pick a few weeks ago. With a lot of enthusiasm for the 2021 NFL quarterback draft class, some might think the Niners are destined to get back to the playoffs if they just find the right guy.

So why am I not convinced that's going to be the case?

I certainly credit Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan for his ability to run an offense and coach up players. And there's no doubt that Shanahan and general manager John Lynch got the best of the Chicago Bears in that 2017 NFL Draft trade, in which they got three mid-round picks just to slide down from No. 2 overall to No. 3.

However, in examining the Niners' team-building process over the past few years, plus the amount of draft capital they gave up to get to No. 3 overall in the 2021 draft, I am not convinced that they clearly have a team that just needs a quarterback to get back to the Super Bowl.

It's true that the Niners had a lot of hard luck with injuries last year, but if you do a deeper examination, you'll find that this is a team that hasn't gotten as many long-term contributors as it first appears, and is going to need the 2020 draft class to hit it big.

Let's look at the evidence.

The Niners’ Past Draft Classes

In 2017, the Niners made four selections in the first three rounds. After the trade with the Bears, they took Solomon Thomas No. 3 overall. He failed to become the impact player you expect to get from a top 10 pick.

The Niners also traded back into the first round to take Reuben Foster, who slid down the board because of off-field concerns. More such concerns arose in 2018 and the Niners were quick to release him.

The Niners did get contributions from third-round pick Ahkello Witherspoon, but he left in free agency. The other third-round pick, C.J. Beathard, is a backup QB who has also left in free agency.

To the Niners' credit, they did find tight end George Kittle in the fifth round. They also got a decent contributor in sixth-rounder D.J. Jones, who was re-signed to a one-year deal earlier this year. However, while one can argue that Kittle makes up for Thomas, it's hard to argue that Jones makes up for Foster.

In 2018, the Niners used their four picks in the first three rounds to select Mike McGlinchey in the first, Dante Pettis in the second, and Fred Warner and Tarvarius Moore in the third. Warner is a quality off-ball linebacker, so he makes up for the miss on Pettis, who was waived late last season.

However, McGlinchey's status isn't clear -- he hasn't been bad, but he hasn't played at the level expected of a top-10 pick. And Moore isn't playing at a level to make up for that, nor is anyone else taken on day three in 2018.

The 2019 draft did land a true impact player for the Niners in Nick Bosa with the No. 2 overall pick. In the second and third rounds, the Niners added Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd.

Samuel has played well, but he's missed time with injuries, though 2021 should tell the tale as to whether or not he'll be part of the long-term picture. Hurd, however, was never active in 2019 before going on IR in October of that year, and he missed the entire 2020 season, too.

The jury is still out on the 2020 draft class, though both Javon Kinlaw and Brandon Aiyuk have shown promise. However, with Kittle, Warner, Bosa and arguably Samuel the only draft picks thus far to show they are part of the long-term picture, the Niners really need both Kinlaw and Aiyuk to pan out, and for McGlinchey to take a step forward.

The Niners’ Free Agency Foray

In the first year Shanahan and Lynch were with the Niners, they were active in free agency -- which isn't surprising, because bad teams that have a new regime are trying to fill a lot of holes, so free agency becomes a route some will utilize.

The Niners added street free agent Earl Mitchell for four years at $16M and he played 30 games, which is respectable. They also got a good return on fullback Kyle Juszcyzk on a four-year, $21M deal with $7M guaranteed.

However, other signings didn't work out as expected. Pierre Garcon got $17M guaranteed on a five-year, $47.5M deal and played 16 games in two seasons. Malcolm Smith got $11.5M guaranteed on a five-year, $26.5M deal and played 12 games before being released.

They didn't go too high on a deal for quarterback Brian Hoyer, who was never going to be a long-term player, but he started just six games and was later released after getting $9.5M in full guarantees.

In 2018, they did have a great value signing in a three-year, $27.1M deal for cornerback Richard Sherman, but missed big time on a four-year, $30M deal with $11.7M fully guaranteed for Jerick McKinnon. They got a good return on Weston Richburg's five-year, $47.5M deal with $16.5M guaranteed, but an injury sidelined him late in 2019 and he never took a snap in 2020.

Then came 2019, in which they re-set the market for off-ball linebackers in giving Kwon Alexander a four-year, $54M deal with $14.25M fully guaranteed. He played just 13 games before he was traded to the Saints.

The Niners also sent a 2020 second-round pick to the Chiefs for edge rusher Dee Ford, then gave him a five-year, $87.5M contract with $20.5M guaranteed. He played 11 games in 2019, but just 22 percent of the snaps, and missed nearly all of 2020 with injuries. The Niners have renegotiated Ford's contract, and he'll make just $7M in 2021.

In 2020, the Niners focused on extending two of their own, defensive lineman Arik Armstead and defensive back Jimmie Ward, while trading DeForest Buckner to the Colts for a first-round pick. Ward arguably had his best season as a pro, starting 14 games with four pass break-ups and 73 total tackles.

The Niners did have to make a decision between keeping Armstead or Buckner, and because of Bosa's season-ending injury in 2021, it's arguable that Armstead would have done better than 3.5 sacks off 23 total pressures. However, Buckner tallied 9.5 sacks off 53 total pressures, so you have to wonder if the Niners made the best decision.

The Niners' biggest move of 2020, by far, was the trade for offensive tackle Trent Williams, who missed all of 2019, largely in a dispute with the Washington Football Team because of his treatment regarding a cancerous growth on his head that private doctors determined was life threatening. The Niners sent a 2020 fifth and a 2021 third to acquire Williams.

Williams started 14 games and played well in 2020, so the Niners gave him a six-year, $138M contract with $40.1M fully guaranteed. That's a lot to pay for a 33-year-old offensive tackle, even one as talented as Williams. The Chiefs reportedly had interest in signing Williams, so the Niners might have gotten into a bidding war. Still, we won't know until 2021 if this signing pays off.

In summary, though, free agency and trades haven’t gone particularly well for the Niners overall. Juszczyk, Sherman, and arguably Richburg have been their best major acquisitions from other teams, and Williams a case of "so far, so good." Otherwise, there's not a lot to like here.

And when it comes to taking care of their own, they did fine with Ward, but if Armstead doesn't improve when Bosa returns to the lineup, that one won't look good, especially if Buckner continues to play at a high level.

What the Niners Gave Up to Move Up

When you look at the what the Niners gave up to get to the No. 3 overall pick, it looks similar in terms of draft points to other trades that happened before the day of the draft.

I utilized the Fitzgerald-Spielberger draft value chart at Over the Cap to determine the difference in draft points teams gave up to move up the board to select a quarterback.

Before I go on, it's understandable that teams will have to pay more in compensation than the actual difference in draft points. Therefore, I looked more at how much the difference was to determine how much was risked.

Also, when looking at draft picks in future years, I considered the pick to be worth the last pick of the equivalent round for scoring purposes. In other words, a future first is worth the No. 32 overall pick. This applies even to past trades, because the intent is to score based on what teams knew at the time -- which is to say, they had no idea where the pick would fall when they traded a future pick.

In scoring the moves up the board, the Niners had to pay a difference of 2,473 draft points to move from No. 12 to No. 3 overall. That's the fifth-most points given up, behind Washington moving up in 2012 (3,074 to move from 6 to 2), the Jets moving up in 2018 (2,739 to move from 6 to 3), the Rams moving up in 2016 (2,545 to move from 15 to 1) and the Eagles moving up in 2016 (2,545 to move from 8 to 2).

It's worth noting all of those moves up the board came before the day of the draft. It shows you that moving up in the draft, particularly into the top 10, is a pricey move.

What about draft-day trades? The Bears' deal with the Niners to move from 3 to 2 cost the Bears a difference 1,963 points, which approaches 2,000. And it's worth noting that every trade up the board for a QB that cost more than 2,000, or was close to that, resulted in a QB who is no longer with that team.

Compare this to other moves up the board for a QB that happened on draft day. There are three which exceeded 1,000 points, in which the Bills moved from 12 to 7 in 2018 at a difference of 1,607, the Chiefs moved from 27 to 10 in 2017 at a difference of 1,455, and the Cardinals moved up from 15 to 10 at a difference of 1,035.

The rest of the draft-day moves up the board for a QB all came at a point difference of less than 1,000, with just one going into the top 10, that being the Jaguars in 2011, who gave up a difference of 790 points to move from 16 to 10.

For teams who gave up a difference of 1,000 points or more, but didn't approach 2,000, two such trades have worked out thus far: the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes and the Bills with Josh Allen. For teams who gave up a difference of less than 1,000, the ones that worked out thus far are the Texans in 2017 for DeShaun Watson (though his future with the team is in question) and the Ravens in 2018 for Lamar Jackson.

In other words, the teams that didn't have a massive difference in draft points given up are the teams that, thus far, have gotten the better returns. Again, the jury is still out on a couple of players, but they've arguably gotten better results than the ones who approached or exceeded a difference of 2,000 points.

With the Rams and Eagles, they both saw themselves as teams that had the talent in place but needed a QB, while Washington, the Jets and Bears didn't have that. The Niners, I imagine, think they are closer to the Rams and Eagles.

However, when you look at the return thus far the Niners are getting on their draft picks and free agency, I am not yet convinced that’s the case. I do think Bosa will come back and be an impact player again, and certainly Kittle, Warner and Juszczyk are pieces the Niners can build around, with Williams likely to be the same despite his age.

Otherwise, the Niners are banking on the hope that other draft picks will develop into top contributors either in 2021 or 2022. The good news is they still have a second- and third-round pick remaining, with six picks on day three, of the 2021 draft. However, they'll need at least one of those day two picks to be a worthy contributor, along with finding the right QB, to ensure that they remain a clear playoff contender.

Conclusion

I can understand why the Niners made the move they did. I also give credit to Shanahan for how he coaches up players, and do recognize that the Niners have made a few good moves under him and Lynch.

However, I'm not yet convinced the Niners clearly have that many pieces in place to say they are just a quarterback away from being a perennial playoff contender. Perhaps I'm wrong and all the Niners need is to get everyone healthy and wait for more recent picks to develop.

I don't believe that Shanahan and Lynch are in any danger of losing their jobs in 2021. Given the Niners are in what is likely to be a tough division, an 8-8 or better season with no playoff trip means they will get more time to get back to the playoffs. (It goes without saying if the Niners make the playoffs in 2021, they'll be fine.)

However, finishing 6-10 or worse -- meaning their 2022 draft pick would likely fall into the top 10 -- could mean Shanahan and Lynch get less time to turn it around. And that's the risk that comes with giving up so much to move up nine spots for a quarterback.

We won't know the full story until 2021 and 2022 are in the books. However, if things don't work out for Shanahan and Lynch, while it would be easy to blame their failure to find a QB, I'd argue it will be more about how they built the team overall, regardless of who they have at QB.