Can the Dolphins Rebuild Strategy Be Duplicated?
The Miami Dolphins have turned things around but they had fortune on their side when it came to stockpiling draft picks.
The Miami Dolphins are off to a strong start. They sure look the part of a team who could push for a deep playoff run. Tua Tagovailoa, who didn't start his NFL career as strong as fellow 2020 first rounders Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, now looks more comfortable.
Some might wonder if emulating the Dolphins' strategy to build a team is the way to go. After all, they got themselves a QB in the first round, hired a head coach who got the most out of the QB, then traded the farm to get Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb. This is how you build a contender, some will say.
However, the Dolphins path to where they are at now isn't quite that simple. The Dolphins, at the time they began the so-called "tank for Tua" strategy had a few things fall into place, but some of those things are not likely to be replicated.
Case in point: The Dolphins got a massive haul in a trade that sent offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil to the Texans. You will remember the lopsided trade that showed that, while Bill O'Brien could do good things as a head coach, he was not the guy you want to be general manager.
A trade that involves sending an offensive tackle on a draft pick contract for two first-round picks (2020 and 2021), a 2021 second-round pick and two players (the Dolphins also sent wide receiver Kenny Stills, a 2020 fourth and 2021 sixth to the Texans) isn't likely to happen again.
It's also less likely that, in the same season, a team will be able to acquire yet another first-round pick for a player on the roster, as the Dolphins did when they sent safety Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers.
The Dolphins' multiple first-round picks in 2020 allowed them to not only take Tagovailoa, but a couple other players as well. They added offensive lineman Austin Jackson, who played offensive tackle but was moved to guard and is in the final year of his contract (the Dolphins declined his fifth-year option). They also added cornerback Noah Igbinoghene, who has since been traded to the Dallas Cowboys.
The 2021 first the Dolphins acquired was sent to the Niners as that team moved up to No. 3 overall, eventually selecting Trey Lance. The Dolphins acquired first-round picks in 2022 and 2023 plus a 2022 third. Fortune continued to smile upon the Dolphins, with teams who either wanted to acquire their players or high draft picks, thus allowing the Dolphins to stock up on draft capital.
From the Niners draft haul, the Dolphins moved back up the board to select wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who looks like a keeper. That move up, though, included one of the Dolphins' first-round picks in 2022, though they still had one remaining.
The other first they still had was used on Jaelen Phillips, another player who has been worth the pick. The Dolphins also selected safety Jevon Holland with the second-round pick acquired from the Texans. Holland has one year left on his rookie deal and has been a steady performer.
Then came 2022, in which the Dolphins decided to trade away draft capital to acquire wide receiver Tyreek Hill from the Chiefs. Along with a 2022 first, they sent second and fourth-round picks in 2022 and two picks in 2023.
And then came the 2022 season itself, in which the Dolphins opted to send their 2023 first to the Broncos as part of a trade package to acquire Bradley Chubb.
With the Dolphins, plenty of factors that enabled them to stock the draft pick cupboard, then empty it to acquire other players, are not ones that can be simply repeated by other teams.
The chances of any team finding a trade partner willing to send three high picks for an offensive tackle, then a high pick for a defensive back in the same season, then followed by a team who wants to trade up to get a quarterback, are extremely low.
The Dolphins did demonstrate that stockpiling draft capital can be a useful exercise, but the amount of capital you acquire depends on how desperate teams are for players or having a regime who doesn't really understand how to barter.
You might argue that that the Dolphins have a front office that truly believed in Tagovailoa and went out of its way to ensure he could succeed. With that said, others might argue that former head coach Brian Flores got a raw deal (his racial discrimination lawsuit remains unsettled).
Regardless, trying to emulate the Dolphins strategy is not the best approach. A rebuilding team should seek to acquire draft capital but it can't lay its bets on multiple teams taking big swings.
Ultimately, teams that want to rebuild need to do what all teams should do: Move on from players who are not part of the future, keep those who are, do what you can to acquire more draft picks, identify your quarterback and, if he's a draft prospect, go get him, then go from there.
The Dolphins are a nice story but they are also a team that had luck smile upon them in unexpected ways. While having a little luck never hurts, you can't always count on luck to go your way, especially in big ways.