Derek Carr: QB for Trade
Another veteran quarterback is likely going on the trading block. Who are the potential suitors for the Raiders signal caller?
It seems there are a lot of teams in the NFL who will make a change at quarterback next season, with the Raiders recently joining that list after their decision to bench Derek Carr with two games left.
The Raiders gave Carr a three-year extension during the 2022 offseason. The extension was mostly about reducing his cap number while fully guaranteeing his money for the season. Now the Raiders have decided to move on, perhaps showing interest in the 2023 QB draft class.
The Raiders are reportedly going to try to trade Carr during the offseason before his guarantees for next season kick in. He has a $32.9M base salary due in 2023, which becomes fully guaranteed if he's on the roster by the third day of the 2023 league year.
Additionally, Carr has $7.5M of his 2024 base salary that becomes fully guaranteed on that day as well. With more than $40M that would become fully guaranteed over the next two seasons, it's fair to ask if teams will want to trade for him.
However, given that teams are always in the market for quarterbacks, you can't rule out a trade. Even though Carr has a no-trade clause, meaning he must approve any trade, it wouldn't surprise me if a trade is eventually worked out before the Raiders have to make a decision about cutting him.
The likely trade compensation for Carr wouldn't be as high as that for Russell Wilson, but you could compare Carr to two other trades in the past decade.
For instance, the Chiefs acquired Alex Smith from the Niners in 2013 for a second-round pick that year and a conditional pick the following year, which became a first-round pick.
Then there's the 2021 trade for Matthew Stafford, in which the Rams sent a third-round pick that year, plus a first the following year, to the Lions. The Rams also included a 2023 first-round pick, doing so because they needed the Lions to take Jared Goff and his massive contract.
Thus, it's likely that a team acquiring Carr will need to send a 2023 second-round pick plus a 2024 pick in a trade. That 2024 pick would likely be conditional -- perhaps a second that becomes a first if the acquiring team makes the playoffs.
What teams would be interested in trading for Carr? Let's examine them and determine which team makes the most sense, particularly in terms of Carr's interest in going there.
New York Jets
The Jets have missed the playoffs after a promising start to the 2022 season. They appear to be done with Zach Wilson and Mike White doesn't look like the long-term answer. Also, general manager Joe Douglas and head coach Robert Saleh could be on notice that it's "playoffs or bust" for 2023.
The Jets could talk themselves into thinking that Carr will get them over the playoff hump. However, would Carr be interested in going to a team whose coach and GM may be on notice? This one would most likely hinge upon whether or not Carr would approve the trade.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have made a habit of pursuing veteran quarterbacks the past few seasons. In 2020, they signed Philip Rivers to a one-year deal. They then traded for Carson Wentz in 2021, then acquired Matt Ryan in a trade in 2022.
While acquiring Carr would fit the Colts' approach in recent seasons, they do have the fifth overall pick in the 2023 draft. In past seasons, they could argue that they weren't in position to draft a QB early. Now they don't have that argument, so they may be better off going that route.
New York Giants
The Giants had more success than expected this year under Brian Daboll and have made the playoffs. Daniel Jones is set to become an unrestricted free agent and really isn't the guy to be the long-term QB. And because the Giants will draft late in the first round, they might not be in position to get a QB early.
However, trading for Carr would make a lot of sense. The Giants do have 11 total picks and may be more inclined to send a pick this year in hopes of getting a QB they can build around. Though the Giants may have been hoping to take the Bills approach by finding a QB to draft and develop, they might feel differently now.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders gave up a third-round pick for Carson Wentz and that has not worked out for them at all. It's likely the Commanders could have a new coaching staff in place, which could mean they take an interest in Carr.
Though the Commanders do have plenty of talent on the roster and a quarterback could put them back into the playoffs, this one may depend on who takes over as head coach, or even what happens if the team is sold. On the other hand, after the Wentz trade failed, it's possible the Commanders are hesitant to make another trade.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints are the team that keeps approaching things as if they are just a few players away from getting back to the playoffs. I've talked many times about their cap situation, but that hasn't seemed to stopped the Saints from pursuing whoever they think will solve their problems.
Thus, you can't rule out the Saints as a possible suitor for Carr. They'd have to do a lot of work with the cap and they don't have much in the way of draft capital in 2023. But given Carr's no-trade clause, the question to ask is whether Carr would be willing to approve a trade to a team that may be better off rebuilding than reloading.
Seattle Seahawks
Here's where things could get interesting. The Seahawks have two firsts and two seconds in this year's draft thanks to the Russell Wilson trade. Therefore, they would be in position to send a second this year and still have plenty of high picks left. The Seahawks also have plenty of talent in place and have shown they can win without Wilson.
But the question is whether or not the Seahawks would be ready to make such a trade after knowing what happened to Wilson when he went to the Broncos. Who knows if they'd be leery about trading for a QB themselves. Still, Carr wouldn't command the draft capital that Wilson did, so I wouldn't be quick to rule out the Seahawks.