Did the Patriots Really 'Win' Free Agency?

The Patriots surprised everyone with their activity in free agency. But there's no guarantee that it will lead to success in 2021.

The start of NFL free agency always generates buzz because fans are fascinated with what players land big contracts and which teams makes the biggest splash.

As history has shown, though, the teams that make the biggest splash in free agency are seldom the teams that win in the regular season.

It's something to keep in mind when you look at, say, the New England Patriots. The Patriots are usually quiet during free agency, though they have made a major signing or two a couple of times.

But this offseason, the Patriots were by far the most active team in free agency, handing out $137.5M in guaranteed money to nine players (not including players on their 2020 roster who were re-signed). The rationale, it appears, was because the Patriots wanted to take advantage of the fact that other teams didn't have a lot of cap space available while they did.

While that sounds good in theory, it doesn't always work in practice. It's easy to think the Patriots will get right back into playoff contention with all the moves they made this offseason.

But while they still have a good coaching staff, their high activity in free agency reminds me of when the Philadelphia Eagles were active in free agency back in 2011.

How well did that work out for the Eagles? Not so well -- the talk about a "dream team" never came to fruition. After a disappointing season, the Eagles hit the reset button, from coaching staff to the roster itself.

Maybe things will be different for the Patriots. However, if history is any indication, things aren't going to work out as well as some people may think.

Are there some teams who I think did well for themselves, though? There are a few.

New York Jets: Rather than chase down the biggest names in free agency and give them contracts that reach new highs, the Jets spent more time looking for value. Carl Lawson is one of those under-the-radar acquisitions that could pay off big.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs had to change up their approach to team building, utilizing more signing bonuses than they have in the past. However, their intent was to keep the core of their team together, rather than chase down players on other teams. Another good draft could ensure the Bucs remain a playoff contender, even when Tom Brady decides to call it a career.

Indianapolis Colts: Sometimes the team that is the least active in free agency does the best. They minimized the risk in the trade for Carson Wentz and they were patient with the market, which allowed them to keep Xavier Rhodes on a low-cost deal.

Cleveland Browns: While the Browns didn't find that edge rusher they were looking for to pair with Myles Garrett, they were smart otherwise. I think John Johnson III is going to be a good acquisition. If they can find an edge rusher in the draft, they'll be in good shape.

Buffalo Bills: Here's another example of how being the least active in free agency can be a good thing. That's particularly true when your emphasis is taking care of your own first, then follow it with a value signing like Emmanuel Sanders.

Are there other teams who didn't do so well? Again, there are a few.

Cincinnati Bengals: Giving a big contract to Trey Hendrickson wasn't a good idea. Hendrickson may have the sack totals, but he didn’t generate much pressure and many of his sacks came because his teammates created opportunities for them.

Las Vegas Raiders: While I liked the value deal they gave to Yannick Ngakoue, I'm not sure I understand the rationale being adding another running back in Kenyan Drake, while cutting or trading their interior offensive lineman. Dealing Trent Brown was one thing, because he hasn't lived up to his contract, but I'm not sure they got better by moving on from Rodney Hudson and Gabe Jackson.

Jacksonville Jaguars: There are a couple of free agent signings that I liked, such as getting Marvin Jones on a reasonable deal. However, I don't think they're getting a true No. 1 cornerback in Shaquil Griffin and they overpaid for Roy Robertson-Harris. The Jaguars have tried to win free agency in the past, and while they didn’t quite go to those lengths this offseason, I’m not sure most of their moves are the right ones.