Digging Deeper Into Big Money Deals for Wide Receivers

Several NFL WRs got paid well -- but the APY numbers are deceiving.

Three notable wide receivers got new contracts that paid them a considerable sum of money.

Davante Adams, traded from the Packers to the Raiders, got $140M over five years. Tyreek Hill, traded from the Chiefs to the Dolphins, got $120M in a four-year extension. Then the Bills extended Stefon Diggs, who received $96M in a four-year extension, with incentives that could raise the total sum to $104M.

Thus the wide receiver market, which has been lukewarm at best in recent years, has now seen big money return. It may make you wonder if more receivers are in line for big money as well.

However, before we stare at the average salary per year for these receivers, we should dig into the details of these contracts to see what's the market may really look like.

Both Adams and Hill are getting a good sum of money in the first three years of their contracts. Adams will receive nearly $66M over three years, while Hill will receive more than $72M.

However, Adams could be released after the 2024 season and, thus, miss out on $35.6M in base salaries in the final two years of his deal. If he is cut at that time, he will have collected less than 50 percent of the contract's total.

Hill is due $21.8M in base salary in 2025 and $43.9M in base salary in 2026. If he is cut after the 2024 season, he will have collected about 58 percent of the extension's total.

For Adams, it's not as good of a deal as it first appears. For Hill, it's a better deal than Adams, but chances are he may never see that big money he's due in 2026, and has no guarantee he'll collect his 2025 salary.

The details for Diggs’ extension have recently been revealed. Diggs will receive $68M over the next three years, so he’s in line to get nearly 71 percent of the total sum. That makes this a pretty good deal for Diggs, even when he took less in APY salary than Adams and Hill.

Also, the three players all received their third long-term deals of their careers. Each player started on a cheap rookie contract, before getting more money in their second contracts. For those second contracts, Adams received $58M over four years, Hill received $54M over three years and Diggs received $72M over five years.

While many have drawn comparisons to younger receivers who are still on their rookie deals, we may need to examine the receivers who could be in line for their third contract. Players such as Cooper Kupp and Mike Evans could push for a new contract with a large APY salary, structured so that he's paid well the first three years, but with large base salaries in the final year or two that he may not earn.

For a receiver who gets his third contract, such a deal makes sense because it's likely the last time he'll get a contract that pays him top money. Taking a deal that ensures they get paid well in the first three years is worth risking that he'll never see the money in the final two seasons.

But that's not a good contract for a receiver who is still on his rookie deal. If those receivers want to get the most money, they need to negotiate deals which not only pay them well in the first three years, but have salaries in the final years that they will be likely to earn.

Receivers such as Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin, D.K. Metcalf and A.J. Brown should focus less on APY salary and more on full guarantees, total guarantees and cash flow.

Their best bet may be to ask for four-year contracts with a structure that ensures they won't be cut in the first three years and will pay them three-fourths of the total sum.

For example, if any of these receivers got a four-year, $100M contract that ensured they would collect $75M over the first three years, they may have a contract that pays a lower APY salary than the likes of Adams and Hill. On the other hand, that contracts beats both Adams and Hill in the money collected in the first three years.

Or if any of these receivers agrees to a deal similar to Diggs’ extension, they are going to be in better shape, even if they don’t set a new mark for APY salary.

It's why I think Jason Fitzgerald raised a valid point that APY salary may not be the best metric to measure contracts. The deals that Hill and Adams received, while paying them well over three years, aren't as favorable to them as APY salary may suggest.

Of course, it's possible that teams won't view those receivers whose rookie deals expire after 2022 as worth top-five money. Much will depend on how these receivers perform in 2022, particularly depending on the team's QB situation.

At other positions, we've seen the market take a huge leap one year, only to come back to earth the next, until top players at that position got extensions from their current teams. The off-ball linebacker market comes to mind, but the safety market may be another example.

Only time will tell if this jump in the receiver market is here to stay. But it's important to remember that, with any contract, the details matter.