Election 2022 Thoughts
Get ready for another week in which results may likely go a way pundits don't expect.
Pennsylvania's election for its U.S. Senate seat has become the talk of the ruling class, albeit for all the wrong reasons.
It started with John Fetterman, who ran for the Democratic nomination and had several speeches in which he explained the importance of listening to working class voters and their concerns, but has since suffered a stroke and, in a recent debate, had trouble giving concise answers to questions.
This has led to more than one observer noting he had a bad performance, only for these observers to get accused of "ableism" or whatever code word is used to tell them not to question their tribe.
Then you go to the Republican side of things, in which Steve Bannon encouraged a black woman named Kathy Barnet to run. Barnet took the positions of the MAGA movement and might have been the best candidate to represent Trump voters.
Well, except for the fact that Trump endorsed Mehmet Oz, the celebrity surgeon who ran against Barnet and Dave McCormick, the latter who fits the mold of Mitch McConnell in that he's pro-business more than anything else.
Oz won the nomination and it's hard to figure out exactly what the guy stands for other than he got a Trump endorsement. But questions about Fetterman's health and his performance in that debate might lead to the guy whose campaign can be bolied down to "I'm a nice guy, vote for me" possibly winning the Senate seat.
Speaking of nice guys, there's Herschel Walker, who is the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate seat in Georgia. Matt Taibbi, in his recent "America This Week" podcast with Walter Kirn, described Walker, who dominated college football and headlined the USFL in the 1980s, but didn't quite have the same impact in the NFL, as a player who some told Taibbi was "too nice for the NFL."
If Walker was too nice for the NFL, he's definitely too nice for Washington and it's fair to ask how prepared he'll be to confront the ills that plague our policy-making process. However, there's no guarantee incumbent Raphael Warmock, a Democrat, will hold Walker off for re-election.
However, the races in Pennsylvania and Georgia may be getting the most attention, but that likely boils down to the "celebrity factor" that Oz and Walker bring. Truth be told, I'm not convinced either state is going to be the one that tips the scales to a Republican-controlled U.S. Senate.
Instead, I believe it's more likely to be Nevada, in which Republican Adam Laxalt has closed the gap to the point his race against Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, the incumbent, is considered a toss-up. All it would take is the Republicans to claim just one U.S. Senate victory to claim control of the Senate with a 51-49 majority.
But that's not all. Arizona has Mark Kelly, the Democrat, facing Republican Blake Masters. At one point, some may have believed Kelly was on his way to a win, but more recently, the polls suggest Masters has a real chance.
My belief is that Masters has a real chance, but it's always been there. Regardless of what I think about his positions, Masters knows how to communicate with voters. Also, given the way the governor's race is going, it could be enough to put Masters over the top.
Speaking of governor races, there are plenty of them in which candidates are using the economy as their means to persuade voters. While that certainly appeals to voters, it's not the only thing -- and in the case of federal versus state elections, there's likely to be differences.
For the federal elections for all Congressional seats, the economy overall, particularly inflation, is likely to drive votes. Another topic that will drive votes is immigration, which impacts the economy as well. There will also be those who are concerned about what exactly the United States is doing in Ukraine and worried about being dragged into another war overseas.
For state elections, voters are likely to think about crime and education. States that kept schools closed for too long, are eager to embrace identity lessons rather than ABCs, and back progressives regarding the police could very well see a changing of the guard -- for example, in Oregon, in which that state hasn't elected a Republican governor in four decades.
Local elections are going to be driven by crime as well -- and that's going to apply regardless of what data shows. Perhaps violent crime is down, but that doesn't mean nonviolent crime is as well. Voters, in fact, are going to be more concerned about open drug markets, shoplifting and vandalism, because that can see it right before their eyes.
Back to state elections: If voters believe there are too many problems with the schools and the approach to crime, there is a real chance a Republican will take the governor's seat. If voters do not see a lot of problems, and the Democrat is an incumbent, the Democrat might hold onto the governor's post.
My opinion about this Tuesday's election is that the GOP takes control of the House of Representatives without much trouble. Every indication is that will happen.
As for the Senate, I believe it's going to be 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats when all is said and done — and my belief is Arizona and Nevada are the more likely ones to flip. That, of course, will get absolutists upset, because they talked themselves into the idea that either "democracy is being destroyed" or "that red wave is gonna be huge."
Meanwhile, my bet with governor's races is that the ones that flip are the ones that the party bases have talked themselves into the idea that those races are locked up for a particular party.
Then we'll watch as the pundits try to figure out what it all means, then push whatever variant of "democracy dies in darkness" they want to push.
As for me, I already voted Friday and I just want people who will go in and figure out the best possible solution to the economy and inflation at the federal leve, and to ensure quality schools at the state level, while in both cases, working to simplify the tax code.
I can't say that for certain that every other voter in this country will the same route I did. But I will say, if they do put the economy, schools and crime ahead of abortion, gun control and other "fire up the base" issues, it won't surprise me.