Elements to Understand When Building an NFL Team
Knowing which positions take priority and the talent level at each position might give you a better idea about who you can afford to keep.
The Kansas City Chiefs' recent trade of wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins may raise the question about whether or not teams can afford to have a highly paid quarterback and keep a good team built around him.
But better questions to ask are about what's the best way to build around a quarterback, how you prioritize certain positions and when it's possible to keep talent considered "elite" and when you might need to go with talent that is not elite, but still offers quality play.
When it comes to quarterbacks, we've often seen the biggest contract go to whoever happens to be the next "big name" with an expiring deal. When Andrew Luck became the highest-paid QB in the NFL, Derek Carr's contract surpassed Luck's. Then we saw multiple QBs get large contracts, most of them surpassing Carr.
This trend has continued at other positions to an extent, though there have been years in which the market wasn't as strong. A couple of years ago, the market for safeties and off-ball linebackers rose sharply, but the latter came back down a year later, while the former has dipped a bit this year.
On the other hand, the market for wide receivers softened quite a bit, but then the likes of Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill were traded and each received generous money over the first three years of the new contracts they signed.
There are those who have applied the thinking that the highest-paid player at a position is whoever happens to be the "next notable player up for a new deal." However, that thinking may need to be adjusted, particularly when it comes to certain positions and the talent level at a position.
Let's go over a few things about how teams should think more about particular positions, talent level at a position, and what that means for building a team.
The Importance Of Positions
We can start by categorizing the positions in terms of the priority they take when you are building a roster that gives you a good chance of making the playoffs. I'd group them like this:
Priority 1: Quarterback
Priority 2: Pass rusher (edge rusher or interior defender who excels at pass rushing)
Priority 3: Offensive tackle (left and right), wide receiver, cornerback
Priority 4: Interior offensive line (center and guard), tight end, off-ball linebacker, safety
Priority 5: Running back, run-stuffing interior defender
Priority 6: Punter, kicker, long snapper, special teams players
Without a quality quarterback, it's going to be difficult to get to the playoffs. Most of the teams that reach the playoffs on a regular basis have a higher-tier quarterback (I'll get to tiers later).
When it comes to the defense, most of the top units have a quality pass rusher. Generating pressures, hurries, hits and sacks is a great way to disrupt a quarterback's rhythm.
Offensive tackles are key to limiting edge rushers, who make up the bulk of top pass rushers. Also, a quarterback needs quality receivers to keep the passing game going, which can be countered with quality cornerbacks.
The fourth priority group has positions that carry importance, but some tend to overrate. Having a quality tight end helps, but few can make up for the lack of a quality receiver. And while off-ball linebackers can do plenty to contain a top tight end, they may not be the best option to cover a receiver.
The fact that quarterbacks have the highest priority is likely a reason why teams are quick to pay them a lot of money -- and may explain why there was the tendency to pay the next quality quarterback up for an extension the most money of any QB.
Pass rushers, meanwhile, are most likely to get the biggest contracts among defensive players. Currently, the five highest paid defensive players are the edge rushers, all exceeding $23M APY salary. (The sixth highest paid in terms of APY is Aaron Donald, an interior defender who excels as a pass rusher.)
The next priority group tends not to exceed the first two, though the APY numbers for Adams, Hill and DeAndre Hopkins, all wide receivers, would be exceptions. They can be misleading, though, because Hopkins received about $50M over the first three years of his contract (or nearly $17M per year), Adams received a little more than $65M over the first three years (or nearly $22M per year) and Hill received $72.2M over the first three (or a little more than $24M per year). Still, those receivers are paid a generous amount over the first three years of their contracts.
There are also two offensive tackles, Trent Williams and David Bakhtiari, who receive $23M APY on their current contracts. However, most offensive tackles fall below $20M in APY salary. Finally, the only cornerback to hit $20M APY at this time is Jalen Ramsey.
It's possible we could see more players in the third priority group surpass $20M in APY salary in the coming years. But let's take a look at the next point.
Skill Level At A Position
We hear the term "franchise player" used a lot but haven't been able to define it. A better way would be to look at the skill level of a player. Here's the way I would categorize them:
Tier 1: Elite starter
Tier 2: Good but not elite starter
Tier 3: Average starter
Tier 4: Strictly a backup
Tier 5: Practice squad
I define elite starters to be players for whom there is a strong case that he is either top five at his position if just one player at that position starts a game, or top 10 for any position in which two players start.
The "good but not elite starter" would be those that rank among the better players at a position, but aren't considered top five or top 10. Average starters may sometimes be backups or rotational players, but nobody would put those players close to the top 10 at any position.
The thing to remember about elite starters is that, while you don't want them to carry too much of the load, they can pick up some of the slack if they are placed alongside plenty of good but not elite starters. An elite quarterback can excel with good receivers and offensive tackles, while an elite pass rusher can take pressure off good cornerbacks.
If you have a good but not elite quarterback, you can make the case that you need an elite offensive tackle, elite receiver or both to allow the quarterback a better chance to excel. Similarly, if your pass rushers are merely good, an elite cornerback can do plenty to limit the passing game.
At lower priority positions, having elite talent can help but such talent is limited in terms of how much it can impact the game. Elite interior offensive linemen can contain quality interior defenders who can rush the passer, but they may be limited against edge rushers who more often line up against offensive tackles. Elite safeties can help with coverage downfield, but aren't always able to make up for subpar play by cornerbacks.
That's not to say you should skip elite talent at lower priority positions. You just need to keep in mind the limitations the player may have and not expect them to make up ground for the higher priority positions.
What It All Means
When it comes to building the team, you have to figure out at what positions you have quality talent, how much they are really worth and pay them accordingly. However, your choices made at one position will eventually dictate your choices at other positions.
Patrick Mahomes, for example, is considered an elite quarterback, while Tyreek Hill is considered an elite receiver. But because the Kansas City Chiefs committed resources to offensive guard Joe Thuney and will need to commit future resources to offensive tackle Orlando Brown, they may be limited in terms of what they can commit to Hill.
While Mahomes may not have record-setting campaigns with Hill no longer on the roster, he should still be productive as long as he has good receivers on the roster. Time will tell what JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling bring to the Chiefs, but if they can at least perform at a level in which they would be called "good," Mahomes should still excel on the field.
Meanwhile, Hill will be going to a team that has a quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, who hasn't quite lived up to expectations. If Tagovailoa can perform at a level that would be called "good" in 2022, Hill should excel. If not, Hill's numbers are likely to drop off.
However, because Tagovailoa is still on a cheap rookie contract, it makes sense to pay Hill as a top receiver. The resources are there to pay Hill that way without having to move on from other needed players.
Should Tagovailoa prove worthy of extension, the Dolphins may have to revisit the situation with Hill. However, they will also need to consider how much Tagovailoa should get in an extension, if it comes out. I don't believe Tagovailoa will become an elite QB, so it wouldn't be a good idea to pay him that way.
Therefore, teams should pay closer attention to the talent level of the position and pay accordingly, rather than pay the highest contract simply because he's next in line. The Rams paid Matthew Stafford well, but didn't re-set the market at the QB position, because Stafford is a good but not elite QB, even if he and the Rams are the most recent Super Bowl winners.
Where the Rams might have to look at things in the future is what to do with the likes of Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd and Jalen Ramsey when it comes time for new contracts for them. A case could be made for keeping Kupp, but if recent acquisition Allen Robinson plays well with Stafford or another young receiver emerges, the Rams may be able to let Kupp depart when his deal expires.
As for Donald, Floyd and Ramsey, it depends both on their play in the seasons to come and which position the Rams prioritize. I can see the argument to keep Donald for a few more years, but not Floyd, who probably needs to be allowed to leave when his deal expires. Ramsey could go either way.
In short, the best way for teams to build their rosters going forward is to understand where to best prioritize their money, depending on how they have built the roster. Doing that won't guarantee a Super Bowl every year, but it will do a lot to ensure the team remains a playoff contender -- and thus have a chance at reaching the Super Bowl.