Fantasy Football: Be Patient When Drafting A QB

The top quarterbacks will likely go off fantasy draft boards early, but you can often find value in later rounds.

Jul 06, 2021

If all NFL players became available in a draft and you were building a team, you are most likely going to take a quarterback with your first pick -- especially if you draft early.

In fantasy football, things are a bit different. Quarterbacks are often better drafted in later rounds, not the first round.

While getting one of the top quarterbacks can be a boon to a fantasy football player, you can often find a productive player at the position in the fourth, fifth or even sixth round.

Consider the case of Patrick Mahomes: Going into his first season as the Chiefs starter, plenty of people were bullish on him, though not to the point they saw him as a top-three fantasy option. Of course, that changed after his MVP season, but many players picked him up as late as the sixth round of their fantasy drafts.

Mahomes will likely go off the board early, along with Justin Herbert and Josh Allen, but fantasy players could find a productive player in later rounds. Kyler Murray has potential to pass for 30-plus touchdowns, Lamar Jackson could bounce back, Trevor Lawrence could make an immediate impact and, while Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa are best considered fantasy backups at this time, their sleeper potential is great.

Your best bet is to wait until the third round before considering a QB, unless your league emphasizes passing stats above all others. You should also make sure a lower-end starter who carries more risk is paired with a good backup or a passer with sleeper potential. If you take a top option, you don't need to take a backup as early, because a top fantasy option should be starting almost every week.

This ranking of fantasy QBs is one man's opinion, though. Always do your own research, put your own rankings together, and adjust them accordingly as training camp and the preseason progress.

My quick picks in certain categories:

Boom: Justin Herbert

Buyer Beware: Ryan Tannehill

Value Pick: Matthew Stafford

Sleeper: Joe Burrow

Deep sleeper: Jalen Hurts

Top rookie: Trevor Lawrence

My fantasy football quarterback rankings:

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City

The best of the young quarterbacks in the NFL, and arguably the best overall QB, nearly hit the 40-TD mark in 2020, while throwing just six interceptions. He has a talented receiving corps and, while Sammy Watkins moved on, his primary top targets, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, are still around. Regardless of your league's format, Mahomes should be the first QB off the board.

2. Justin Herbert, LA Chargers

The 2020 first-round pick claimed the starting job in Week 2 and never looked back, throwing 31 touchdowns to 10 interceptions and winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. The Chargers receiving corps remains mostly the same, save for Hunter Henry moving on and Jared Cook replacing him. Herbert shouldn't miss a beat, though, and the best is likely yet to come for the young QB.

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo

Allen broke out in 2020, tossing 37 touchdowns to 10 interceptions and entering the MVP conversation. The acquisition of Stefon Diggs last year certainly helped, and the only change the Bills made to the receiving corps was replacing John Brown with Emmanuel Sanders. A bonus with Allen is what he brings to the rushing department -- he's rushed for at least eight TDs in each of his three seasons.

4. Russell Wilson, Seattle

Wilson threw for 40 touchdowns for the first time in his NFL career. What likely helped was the emergence of DK Metcalf, who could become the best receiver Wilson has ever had. One concern is that Wilson has been sacked 40 or more times each season since 2013, but the Seahawks worked to upgrade the offensive line during the offseason. Among the longtime veterans, Wilson is your best bet in fantasy leagues.

5. Dak Prescott, Dallas

Prescott's 2020 season was cut short because of a ankle injury in Week Five, but he was off to a solid start with nine touchdown passes in five games, putting him on pace for a 30-TD season. CeeDee Lamb should grow as a receiver alongside Amari Cooper, giving Prescott one of the better receiving duos in the NFL. With Prescott having received a long-term deal, he's established himself as the starter, and fantasy players shouldn't let his 2020 injury concern them.

6. Kyler Murray, Arizona

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft saw a modest increase in his passing touchdowns, but where he really stood out was in the rushing department, in which he had 11 rushing TDs. The Cardinals traded for DeAndre Hopkins last year, and this year, they added AJ Green, who missed all of 2020. Will it be enough for Murray to take the next step? His upside remains, but while he is a fantasy starting QB, be careful not to reach for him.

7. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore

After an MVP season in 2019, Jackson's production declined considerably. His passing touchdowns went down from 36 to 26, his interceptions up from six to nine, and while his rushing TDs remained the same at seven, Jackson wasn't as consistent overall. Perhaps the drafting of Rashod Bateman and the signing of Sammy Watkins will help. As with Murray, Jackson still has plenty of upside, but don't reach for him.

8. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay

At 43 years old, Brady threw 40 touchdowns, something he hasn't done since 2007 when he threw 50, an NFL record at the time. It certainly helped that he signed with the Buccaneers as a free agent last year and got to throw to the likes of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. There's always the question about how much longer Brady can keep this up, but the Bucs did keep their Super Bowl winning team together, so keep considering Brady a fantasy starter.

9. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay

You would think the reigning MVP would be ranked higher -- and there's no question Rodgers had a strong 2020 season with 48 touchdowns, the most he's thrown in a single season. However, Rodgers is unhappy with his current situation and it remains to be seen if he'll show up for training camp. Consider Rodgers a fantasy starter for now, but monitor his status. If it looks like he's really prepared to sit out the season unless he's traded, drop him down your board.

10. Matthew Stafford, Detroit

The longtime Lions starting QB was traded to the Rams, meaning he'll go from an offense that didn't have much in the way of receiving talent to one that has a good receiving duo in Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. Stafford hasn't surpassed 30 touchdowns since 2015, though, so you don't want to take him too early in drafts. But in the middle rounds, when other QBs are off the board, Stafford is worth a shot.

11. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota

Cousins threw a season-best 35 touchdowns, remaining a productive fantasy player, even after the Vikings traded Stefon Diggs. The Vikings drafted Justin Jefferson, who proved a good complementary player alongside Adam Thielen. True, the Vikings did release Kyle Rudolph, but that shouldn't cut into Cousins' production that much. As with Stafford, you don't want to reach for Cousins, but he's worth a look in the middle rounds.

12. Baker Mayfield, Cleveland

Mayfield appears to have a coaching staff that is doing the most to maximize his talents and production. He has yet to break 30 passing touchdowns in a season, but perhaps a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. will help. A good thing was that Mayfield, after throwing 21 interceptions in 2019, reduced that tally to eight in 2020. You'll want to see more out of him before you think of him as a clear fantasy starter, but he could be a good value pick in the middle rounds.

13. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee

Tannehill posted a career-best 33 touchdown passes in 2020 with just seven interceptions. Corey Davis left in free agency, but the Titans acquired Julio Jones in an offseason trade. However, the departure of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is a concern -- will Tannehill continue to thrive under a new offensive coordinator? You might have to look to Tannehill as a starter in leagues with 14 or more teams, but otherwise, think of him as a top fantasy backup.

14. Derek Carr, Las Vegas

Carr is one of the better quarterbacks when it comes to avoiding interceptions -- he's thrown 10 or less in four of the past five seasons. However, he hasn't surpassed 30 touchdowns since 2015. Carr is another quarterback you might have to start in leagues with 14 or more teams, but should otherwise consider a backup -- though he's one of the best fantasy backup options out there.

15. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh

Roethlisberger threw for 33 touchdowns in 2020 and the Steelers won the AFC North. They kept their receiving corps together, after JuJu Smith-Schuster returned on a one-year deal, and Chase Claypool had a good rookie season. But can you trust Roethlisberger given his age and injury history? While the numbers last year suggest a possible fantasy starter, better to consider him as a fantasy backup at this point.

16. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati

Burrow threw 13 touchdowns to five interceptions in 10 games before a knee injury ended his rookie season. The Bengals added Ja'Marr Chase in the first round of the 2021 NFL draft, and 2020 second-round pick Tee Higgins should improve. However, pump the brakes on making Burrow a fantasy starter, because the Bengals offense is still a work in progress. You can think of Burrow as a top sleeper, but sleepers among QBs are still fantasy backups.

17. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville

You usually don't want to draft a rookie quarterback too high unless you're in a keeper league, but Lawrence may be the exception. It's true the Jaguars struggled last year, but the offensive playmakers tallied 25 receiving touchdowns despite issues at quarterback. DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault Jr. have potential to be a top receiving duo, so Lawrence could be in a good position. Consider him a fantasy backup, but it may be worth pairing him with a low-end starter, on the hopes that Lawrence is one of those rookies who produces immediately.

18. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami

Tagovailoa showed some promise in his nine starts, in which he threw 11 touchdowns to five interceptions. There were some eyebrows raised when Tagovailoa was pulled in a game for Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the veteran is gone, and even with the signing of Jacoby Brissett, this will be Tua's team. The Dolphins added Jaylen Waddle in the 2021 NFL draft and signed Will Fuller, and those two, with DeVante Parker, give Tagovailoa a quality receiving trio. Tagovailoa is another sleeper among fantasy QBs.

19. Matt Ryan, Atlanta

Ryan was still a productive quarterback in 2020, even if it wasn't at the levels he reached in the past. The Falcons drafted Kyle Pitts, but then traded away Julio Jones. They still have a good receiver in Calvin Ridley, but did the trade of Jones counter the selection of Pitts? Ryan can still be considered a top fantasy backup, but it remains to be seen if he'll ever be a true fantasy starter again.

20. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia

Hurts took over late in the 2020 season and threw six touchdowns to four interceptions in four starts. The Eagles will rely on younger receivers such as Jalen Reagor and DeVonta Smith, so the potential is there for those two to grow alongside Hurts and make for a strong playmaking trio. Hurts is another fantasy sleeper among quarterbacks, and if he slides into the later rounds of your drafts, he's worth the pick.

21. Jameis Winston, New Orleans

Drew Brees' retirement means the Saints need a new starting QB. Winston stayed with the team on a short-term deal and has the chance to claim that job. He did throw 33 touchdowns in 2019, but unfortunately, he also tossed 30 interceptions. Perhaps getting a year as a backup gave him time to focus, and if it did, he enters an offense with plenty of talent and the potential for big numbers. True, Taysom Hill will compete for the job, but Winston is the better overall QB, making him another fantasy sleeper.

22. Cam Newton, New England

Newton was quite valuable in the running game last year -- he had 12 rushing touchdowns in his first season with the Patriots. However, the passing game was another story -- he threw eight touchdowns to 10 interceptions. The Patriots added Nelson Agholor, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith in free agency, but they also drafted Mac Jones, plus Newton is dealing with health issues. If Newton wins the starting job, he's a solid fantasy backup, but that's probably the most you can expect from him.

23. Carson Wentz, Indianapolis

Wentz's production declined considerably in 2020, with 16 touchdowns to 15 interceptions in 12 games before he was benched for Jalen Hurts. He was traded to the Colts in the offseason and will be reunited with Frank Reich, the Eagles offensive coordinator when Wentz broke out in 2017 and put up numbers worthy of the MVP award. Will it be enough to turn things around for him? It remains to be seen, but don't think of Wentz as anything but a fantasy backup until he proves otherwise.

24. Zach Wilson, New York Jets

The Jets thought enough of Wilson to not only make him the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL draft, but they don't even have a veteran who is going to push him -- the other QBs are James Morgan and Mike White, neither of whom has ever thrown an NFL regular-season pass. The Jets signed Corey Davis as a free agent and Denzel Mims, a 2020 second-round pick, could improve, but Wilson isn't surrounded with a lot of proven talent. He has plenty of upside, but not enough to make him anything more than a fantasy backup at this time.

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25. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Washington

Fitzpatrick may be the best backup quarterback in the NFL, and he's been fairly productive as a starter. It appears he'll have the starting job with Washington in 2021, and he did throw 21 touchdowns in 20 starts with Miami the past two seasons. While he'll have some young, quality players in the Washington receiving corps, he hasn't proven he can be the long-term guy and he's not getting any younger. Put him down as a decent fantasy backup, but no more than that.

26. Daniel Jones, New York Giants

Jones threw 24 touchdowns in his rookie season in 2019, but threw just 11 in 2020. The Giants still seem to think he can be the starter -- his primary competition for the job is Mike Glennon. They also added Kenny Golladay and John Ross III in free agency. But it's hard to see that being enough to make Jones anything more than a fantasy backup.

27. Drew Lock, Denver

Lock threw 16 touchdown passes in 13 starts in 2020, but his 15 interceptions led the NFL. He would likely be ahead of Jones in the rankings, except for the fact that the Broncos traded for Teddy Bridgewater. If Lock claims the starting job, he will certainly be surrounded by offensive playmakers. But the fact he's not guaranteed the starting job makes him a risky fantasy pick -- though if he does win the job, you can consider him a fantasy backup.

28. Sam Darnold, Carolina

Darnold has never thrown more than 19 touchdowns in a single season, but the Panthers thought enough of him to send a couple of draft picks to the Jets to acquire him. Darnold will be reunited with Robby Anderson, plus DJ Moore is a rising star and Christian McCaffrey is returning from injury. It's hard to get excited about Darnold, though, given that he's never been a productive fantasy QB.

29. Andy Dalton, Chicago

Dalton threw 14 touchdowns and eight interceptions in nine starts for the Cowboys after Dak Prescott was lost for the season to an ankle injury. The Bears signed him in free agency, but then turned around and traded up to draft Justin Fields. If Dalton wins the starting job, he'd be throwing to Allen Robinson, one of the NFL's top receivers. However, it's not a question of if, but when, Fields takes over. Dalton is a risky pick in fantasy leagues, even as a backup.

30. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco

Garoppolo threw for 27 touchdowns in 2019 when the Niners reached the Super Bowl that season. However, he's never started a full 16-game season since the Niners acquired him in 2017 and, when he's taken the field, he hasn't been particularly good. The Niners traded up for the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 draft and selected Trey Lance, so it's clear Garoppolo is on borrowed time. Even as a fantasy backup, Garoppolo is a risky pick.

31. Jared Goff, Detroit

While Goff has been a steady player with the Rams, they opted to trade for Matthew Stafford, sending Goff to the Lions in the process. Now Goff goes from being surrounded by good playmakers to being surrounded by far less inspiring talent. Perhaps Dan Campbell and his coaching staff can surprise us, but with all the questions surrounding the offense, you shouldn't be investing a fantasy draft pick in Goff in most leagues.

32. Justin Fields, Chicago

Fields generated plenty of excitement in his final two years in college football, and the Bears were excited enough to trade up for him in the 2021 NFL draft. Fields is expected to enter a competition for the starting job, so he's not a player to chase after in most fantasy drafts -- at least not yet. Keep an eye on how the competition goes and, if he wins the starting job, move him up your rankings and consider him a good fantasy backup with potential to break out as a rookie.

33. Trey Lance, San Francisco

The Niners traded up for the No. 3 overall pick and Lance was the player they set their sights on. Lance will get to learn from Kyle Shanahan, who is known for getting the most out of quarterbacks. But Lance will first have to beat out Jimmy Garappolo for the starting job. If he does win the job, he is a solid fantasy backup with break-out potential. Keep an eye on how the competition plays out and move him up if things look promising.

34. Teddy Bridgewater, Denver

Bridgewater has been in the NFL for seven seasons, but hasn't taken the field much, mostly thanks to a gruesome leg injury that cost him the 2016 season and most of 2017. He started 15 games in 2020 and threw 15 touchdown passes, and the Broncos traded for him to compete with Drew Lock for the starting job. If Bridgewater beats Lock for the job, he'd have a strong cast of offensive playmakers around him. If Bridgewater wins the job, he's a solid fantasy backup.

35. Mac Jones, New England

The Patriots selected Jones in the first round of the 2021 NFL draft and he'll get a chance to compete for the starting job. It remains to be seen if he'll get the nod, though. Cam Newton may be dealing with health issues this offseason, but if he's healthy, he'll have the inside track on the starting job. If Jones wins the job, it remains to be seen how things come together with the other additions to the offense. Of the first-round rookie QBs from the 2021 NFL draft, Jones is the least appealing fantasy option.

36. Tyrod Taylor, Houston

While Taylor has proven he can be a steady presence in the NFL, he enters a bad situation with the Texans. It's hard to get excited about the bulk of players on the Texans offense, save for Brandin Cooks. Even so, Taylor has never thrown more than 20 touchdowns in a season. It's best to avoid Taylor, even as a fantasy backup, if you can help it.

Bob's Tidbits

Fantasy Football: Be Patient When Drafting A QB

The top quarterbacks will likely go off fantasy draft boards early, but you can often find value in later rounds.

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