Four Key Decisions for the Chiefs in the 2024 Offseason
As the Chiefs pursue a dynasty, they'll have to figure out who is worth keeping for that pursuit.
This year's Super Bowl features a rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers. The two teams met three years ago, with the Chiefs prevailing for what was their second Vince Lombardi trophy in franchise history.
The Chiefs have since been to the Super Bowl the past two years and are coming off a win last year. The Niners, meanwhile, are back but with a new quarterback, though it turned out to be a guy taken with the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft (Brock Purdy) rather than the guy they traded multiple picks to select No. 3 overall in the 2021 draft (Trey Lance, who has since been traded to the Cowboys).
Another difference between the teams comes with their 2024 salary cap position. I previously discussed the Niners, who are projected to be $11.8M over the cap and will have to make some decisions. If the Niners win the Super Bowl, they may be more tempted to roll it back with their roster as it is, but if not, they'll have to figure out what moves make the most sense for 2024.
The Chiefs aren't projected to be over the cap in 2024, even after they get 51 players under contract. However, they aren't flush with cap space like some other teams. They are projected to be $15.7M above the cap once they sign players to futures contracts (a move that happens after a team's season is officially over).
One can look at the Chiefs and notice that they generally do a good job of building the roster, though it's not flawless. Many look at their 2021 and 2022 drafts and see plenty of players who were good additions, but their 2018 and 2019 drafts didn't bear much in the first three rounds, with the exception of interior defender Derrick Nnadi. (I don't count Mecole Hardman, who the Chiefs allowed to walk in free agency, then reacquired in a trade with the Jets, only for him to be a non-factor.)
Their free agency moves have been similar. On one hand, Joe Thuney will enter the fourth year of his five-year deal and is certain to be back. On the other hand, Jawaan Taylor was bad in his first season with the Chiefs, after being made one of the highest-paid right tackles in the NFL.
The Chiefs, of course, have the best quarterback in the NFL (Patrick Mahomes) and arguably the best head coach (Andy Reid). Those two factors do a lot to ensure the Chiefs remain a playoff contender.
But what the Chiefs do better than most NFL teams is this: They know when it's time to let a player depart. They don't trip over themselves to keep everyone together and understand that, sometimes, you need to let a player go because either (a) he's not likely worth the deal he wants or (b) you have other priorities to address.
They originally signed Mahomes to a 10-year deal, which allowed them to keep his cost under control for the duration of his career. They did renegotiate his contract to give him a little more money, but they weren't obligated to do so.
They have kept tight end Travis Kelce around longer than they have other players, but Kelce's deal doesn't put him in the top three in terms of APY salary. He's signed through 2025, when he'll be 36 years old, an age at which he may be contemplating retirement.
But then there's Tyreek Hill, who the Chiefs drafted in the fifth round in 2016, in which his stock was down because of a domestic violence conviction. He became one of the top receivers in the NFL and the Chiefs extended him in 2019. But when he was up for another extension in 2022, the Chiefs opted to trade Hill to the Dolphins. Since that trade, Hill has made the Dolphins a better team but it's the Chiefs who have twice advanced to the AFC title game, then the Super Bowl.
One shouldn't expect things to be much different in 2024, regardless of whether the Chiefs win this year's Super Bowl or not. They might be tempted to keep more players together if they win, but that doesn't mean they keep everybody.
Let's look at four players whose future with the Chiefs must be weighed.
Chris Jones: The 2016 second-round pick has proven himself as one of the best interior defensive linemen in the NFL. The Chiefs gave him a four-year, $80M contract in 2019, then revised his contract in 2023 to give him $6.75M in incentives as an option bonus.
Jones held out of training camp because he was seeking a new long-term deal. That the Chiefs didn't give him one (though they gave him the incentives for 2023) would indicate they aren't interested in keeping him for the long term.
As good as Jones is, the Chiefs aren't wrong to avoid extending him. While top pass rushers are worth a second contract, they are almost never worth a third. Jones will be 30 years old and there's no telling when decline will set in.
It won't surprise me if the Chiefs decide to let Jones walk, particularly when they have some other players that they may prefer to keep. And that brings me to the next player...
L'Jarius Sneed: A fourth-round pick in 2020, Sneed is playing his best ball at the right time. He is likely to be one of the more coveted cornerbacks in free agency, particularly because it's not a deep group in terms of talent.
The question is how much the Chiefs think Sneed is worth. if Sneed is willing to sign a deal averaging $13M per year, I don't think there's any question the Chiefs would bring him back. If Sneed insists on $20M per year, though, the Chiefs will certainly let him walk.
But if Sneed is seeking a deal averaging $16M per year, would the Chiefs do it? On one hand, the Chiefs might be willing to consider that type of deal, particularly because he has thrived in their defensive scheme. On the other hand, they have to ask themselves if they'd rather commit that money elsewhere.
That's because, while Sneed is somebody worth bringing back, they'll have to think about a couple of extensions for two key players entering the final year of their deals.
Creed Humphrey: One of the Chiefs' 2021 second-round picks, Humphrey quickly established himself as one of the best centers in the NFL. Though he hasn't necessarily played his best ball this season, he still ranks among the better players at his position.
While Humphrey is under contract for 2024, there will be three notable centers who will hit free agency this offseason: Lloyd Cushenberry, Andre James and Connor Williams. The deals those three sign could impact what Humphrey seeks in a new deal.
With Jason Kelce, Ryan Jensen and Corey Linsley all expected to retire, Frank Ragnow is the highest-paid center in terms of APY salary at $13.5M. The three free agents I mentioned could push for deals that average $10M in APY salary, perhaps more.
Humphrey is arguably in position to push for the money that Ragnow is getting. It's possible for the Chiefs to get a deal done before free agency gets underway (they can extend Humphrey any time they want after the Super Bowl). But it will be interesting to see how the center market takes shape and if Humphrey and his agent would rather let that market play out before agreeing to any deal with the Chiefs.
Nick Bolton: The other 2021 second-round pick has made an impact as well, as he is good in both run defense and pass coverage. He did miss eight games because of an injury but was back in the lineup in time for the 2023 playoffs.
Bolton, though, plays a position in which we've seen some players hit new highs as far as contracts go. We're not far removed from when the Jets paid CJ Mosley a deal averaging $17M per year. That was followed by massive contracts given to Fred Warner and Shaquille Leonard.
Warner has proven to be worth that five-year, $95M extension, but Leonard battled injuries after signing his five-year, $98.25M contract and the Colts cut him midway through the 2023 season. Then came Roquan Smith, who the Ravens acquired in a 2022 midseason trade, then later signed hm to a five-year, $100M contract.
How much is Bolton worth? More importantly, how much do the Chiefs think Bolton is worth? If Bolton tries to push for Smith money, the Chiefs have to ask themselves how important is to keep him around.
It won't surprise me if contract talks between the Chiefs and Bolton take longer to resolve. The Chiefs will have to figure out other contract situations before deciding on whether they can afford to keep Bolton, should his contract demands come in high.
In summary: Regardless of what happens with Sneed, Humphrey and Bolton, I’ll repeat what I said earlier: It won't surprise me if the Chiefs let Jones walk. Simply put, the Chiefs need to prioritize money for players who are still in the prime of their careers, not players who are closer to exiting their prime.
Even though the Chiefs aren't flush with cap space, it's possible for them to keep Sneed, Humphrey and Bolton. They will need to look at where they can save money elsewhere on the roster through either cuts or renegotiations.
The Chiefs will likely approach Marquez Valdes-Scantling about renegotiating his $11.56M base salary and, failing that, they could just cut him. Not only will they decline the fifth-year option for Kadarius Toney, but they may try to trade him for a late-round draft pick swap just so somebody will take his salary. If absolutely necessary, they could utilize void years for a contract restructure of a player they want to keep but not extend.
Regardless, the Chiefs do have some decisions to make and at least one of them (Jones) could surprise those who think it's imperative for a Super Bowl contender to always keep the band together. But the Chiefs don't operate that way and aren't likely to change, even as they are pursuing a dynasty.