How Much Is That Quarterback Worth?
Over the Cap's Week 1 valuations show that most of the highest-paid QBs didn't live up to their deals.
When I sat down to review Over the Cap's player valuation for Week One, as it pertained to the Denver Broncos (blatant Mile High Huddle plug), I noticed something about the quarterbacks and how they were valued.
Week 1's valuations are still up as of this writing (but keep in mind the page is updated weekly, so it will have changed if you read this later in the week), but here's a look at the starting quarterbacks who, based on their Week 1 performances, didn't perform at a level that measured up to their APY salaries.
And here's a look at the starting quarterbacks who, in Week 1, did measure up to their APY salaries.
Obviously, this is just one week of play, not to mention that the valuation isn't a be all, end all measure of what a player is really worth. However, it does paint the picture about how, in the first week of the season, the QBs who are among the highest paid didn't have great games.
To be fair, those quarterbacks didn't all play poorly. However, the best you could say about the quarterbacks is that, if they had a good game, they didn't have a great game, when said quarterbacks are paid salaries that suggest they should have great games on a regular basis.
What could account for this? There are likely multiple factors in play here. Let's look at a few of them.
* Aaron Rodgers: Obviously, his Achilles injury that forced him to exit after just four plays.
* Joe Burrow and DeShaun Watson: Both played in rainy conditions and neither one got much help from receivers beyond their top options.
* Josh Allen: Allowed his tendency to gamble to get the best of him.
* Patrick Mahomes: Travis Kelce was out and Kadarius Toney dropped multiple passes, one which resulted in a pick six.
* Daniel Jones and Geno Smith: In these cases, you might have people wondering if 2022 was an anomaly.
But one thing to keep in mind is that it's so difficult for the highest-paid QBs to live up to that contract, every single week. In the coming weeks, it's likely that you will see more of these QBs play better and, thus, OTC valuation should reflect that.
As for the QBs who did live up to their value, the obvious note is that several of these QBs are still on their rookie deals. Of course, if the likes of Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence keep playing well, they'll soon be among the highest-paid QBs in the NFL (Lawrence is eligible for an extension in 2024 while Tagovailoa is eligible now).
Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield is on a one-year deal in which he's looking to prove he's worthy of a bigger contract, while Matthew Stafford is the only one listed who has a top-dollar deal. Only time will tell what both QBs do this season.
But as for QB value, this does show you how much a QB on a rookie deal can do for your team, even if you have one who isn't playing at a high level. It doesn't take much for said QBs to give you return on your investment. This is the main reason why more analysts advocate for taking QBs early in drafts rather than going with a stopgap veteran.
In some cases, though, teams might have had their hands forced. The Giants, for example, might have entered 2022 with the idea that they would draft a QB in 2023, only to turn around and make the playoffs. That put them later in the first round and made it more difficult to move up the board for a top QB.
Of course, one can still question whether the Giants should have paid Daniel Jones like they did. But therein lies the rub: If you aren't sure about your QB with the expiring contract, but then you make the playoffs, can you say you are truly better off letting that QB walk?
Again, it's just one week of the season and there's a lot more football left to play. What I would say is that, for the time being, people shouldn't read too much into the numbers for the first week, particularly given how tough it can be for the highest-paid QBs to live up to their deals.
Over time, though, is the bigger question. If certain QBs at the top of the pay scale don't deliver from time to time, questions will be asked about whether or not they are worth the deals they're getting.
And that leads to this: For the teams with QBs on cheaper deals, particularly those on their rookie contracts, how much is it worth to those teams to keep those QBs around for the long term?