How Should Each NFL Team Approach Free Agency?
The NFL free agency period is about to begin. Here's how each team needs to go about its business.
With the 2024 free agency period essentially starting Monday, via the so-called "legal tampering" period in which teams may negotiate contracts and agree to terms with pending unrestricted free agents, I wanted to look at each team's cap situation and determine how aggressive they should be in free agency.
While some might think teams with lots of cap space should always be aggressive, that may not be the best path if they aren't certain about their quarterback situation. For teams who were above the cap going into the season, but rectified it, they are teams that should still be cautious in free agency.
There are teams who should be able to roll it back with their current rosters while others need to make changes. In the latter case, a couple of teams have already taken that path.
I'll look at the teams in the order of available cap space going into Sunday, March 10, but keep in mind that other moves could happen that change their cap situation. There has been a lot of activity the past week and Sunday could see quite a few more moves happen as teams enter the final day before players and their agents may negotiate with any team they wish.
(Note: The header image is a rough guide to how each team should approach free agency, though a couple of teams are in, or may be in, unique positions.)
Commanders ($91.5M in cap space): While the Commanders have a lot of cap space to utilize, their quarterback situation remains unsettled. They are likely to draft a QB at No. 2 overall but may not want to be that aggressive in free agency, until they see enough evidence that the QB they select is the player to build around. The Commanders could bring back a player or two and take a swing at one free agent they like.
Patriots ($85.3M in cap space): The last time the Patriots were aggressive in free agency, they did reach the playoffs but, over the long term, they were unable to sustain that, in part because Mac Jones failed to prove himself as the QB to build around. There's a chance they could take a QB at No. 3 overall but there is talk they may trade down. If so, it's best not for them to be aggressive in free agency, but they could bring back players other than Hunter Henry or, as with the Commanders, take a swing at one free agent they like.
Titans ($75.4M in cap space): The Titans appear set to let Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill depart in free agency, which is the smart move. It's not clear if they think Will Levis is the QB they can build around. Consequently, they shouldn't be aggressive in free agency this year. They don't have a lot of free agents who are priorities to retain but I could see them keeping some of their younger free agents. Again, it might make sense for them to take a swing at one free agent they really like.
Texans ($62.8M in cap space): This is the time for the Texans to be aggressive in free agency. They have their QB to build around, along with a quality pass rusher and promising talent at wide receiver and cornerback. The Texans have already made multiple moves to bring back certain players and they can afford to go big in free agency. While the free agent market for pass rushers has dried up, the Texans could be a team that goes big on a pass rusher to complement Will Anderson Jr.
Bears ($62.7M in cap space): While all signs point to the Bears drafting Caleb Williams at No. 1 overall, they should probably wait a year before being aggressive in free agency. The Bears are another team that could take a swing at a free agent they really like. They have extended Jaylon Johnson, which took care of their biggest in-house move. It's possible they could bring back more of their own players, but the ones who are free agents aren't priorities to keep.
Cardinals ($56.6M in cap space): The first question the Cardinals need to ask is how confident they are in Kyler Murray being the QB to build around. While I could see them sticking with Murray for 2024, that means they need to be selective in free agency at this time. That way, if things don't work out with Murray, they can move on, even if it comes with pain.
Colts ($49.2M in cap space): The Colts have usually been a team that doesn't spend much in free agency and prefers to take care of their own first. That appears to be no different this offseason, as they have already retained six of their pending free agents. Given that the jury is still out on Anthony Richardson, it makes sense for the Colts to follow their usual path. If things come together in 2024, they could see 2025 as the year to make one "all in" move to see if puts them over the top.
Bengals ($48.5M in cap space): The Bengals are described as a team that doesn't spend money, but they've shown more willingness to do so after being a rather cheap team in the past. What the Bengals actually do is focus more on value in free agency and seldom take a big swing. That's the approach they should follow again this offseason. I still think they should give Tee Higgins permission to seek a trade, but perhaps they find a way to work things out with him while still being in position to extend Ja'Marr Chase.
Lions ($45.3M in cap space): I believe the Lions can look for the one free agent they wish to go "all in" to sign, in hopes of getting to the Super Bowl. Some might wonder if they should extend Jared Goff, who is in the final year of his contract, but it's probably better to hold off on that. While Goff has done good things, the Lions don't want to risk that his play will decline. If they do make the Super Bowl in 2024, they would still have the option to use the franchise tag for 2025.
Eagles ($42.9M in cap space): Howie Roseman is one of the better general managers in the NFL and has found ways to work the cap to his advantage while still building a quality team. His task this offseason is to figure out what to do to maximize Jalen Hurts' talents. I could see the Eagles making one "all in" move in hopes it gets them back on track, but they have to be careful how far they go, given some of the questions about their performance down the stretch in 2023.
Seahawks ($42.1M in cap space): The Seahawks made a few moves to gain cap space but are a team that should probably avoid a big swing in free agency and focus more on the draft. It does appear that John Schneider is being realistic that the Seahawks need to turn over the roster a bit rather than trying to keep the band together. They are a team who will probably draft a QB at some point and figure out if that player can take over for Geno Smith.
Raiders ($41.6M in cap space): This is another team that needs to get its quarterback situation addressed and figure out the direction from there. It won't surprise me if the Raiders move on from a couple of players from previous regimes via trades or perhaps a cut after June 1. Jimmy Garoppolo is an obvious player to cut, though I imagine they are figuring out if they can void his guarantees given his recent suspension.
Giants ($38.3M in cap space): After extending Daniel Jones last season and watching that move backfire, the Giants need to reassess their situation. There's a chance they could keep Xavier McKinney, given that a number of safeties have been released and the market might be depressed as a result. They were wise not to use the tag on Saquon Barkley again. If they don't bring back McKinney, the Giants could spend a little in free agency, but not get too aggressive.
Falcons ($37.3M in cap space): It wouldn't surprise me if the Falcons add a veteran quarterback this offseason. They have been linked to Kirk Cousins and that seems to be the most likely move they'll make. If they do sign Cousins, they probably won't be in a position to add any more free agents and would need to focus on the draft. If they don't add Cousins, they might add another veteran or they could try to move up the draft board for a QB.
Vikings ($37.1M in cap space): Ever since the new regime took over, it's not hard to figure out the Vikings are moving on from much of the roster brought in by the previous regime. The Vikings are demonstrating what a rebuild is supposed to be, even after making the playoffs in 2022. It won't surprise me to see the Vikings limit themselves free agency, aside from bringing back a player or two or adding cheaper talent.
Broncos ($30.6M in cap space): Although the Broncos cleared out a lot of cap room with multiple moves, they shouldn’t be aggressive and instead focus on cheap talent. They went big in free agency in 2023 and, whenever you go big one year, you need to take a pause and reassess. Of course, the Russell Wilson release does restrict the Broncos give their cash commitments they still have to make to him. But even without his release, the Broncos cannot take a big swing this time around.
Rams ($29M in cap space): The Rams have already committed to keeping a couple of their pending free agents and that's probably the smart thing to do. As their core player are getting older, they need to avoid big swings in free agency and certainly need to avoid a big swing on a trade. It will help that the Rams have a lot of draft capital in 2024, so they can focus on replenishing the roster that way.
Jets ($20.7M in cap space): No team is in a more obvious "win or else" situation than the Jets. While Joe Douglas and Robert Saleh were given a mulligan in 2023 because of Aaron Rodgers' injury, they will certainly be expected to get a playoff trip or the Jets will clean house. Though they don't have a lot of cap space to work with, I could see Douglas green light an "all in" move in hopes that it will get the Jets to the playoffs.
Jaguars ($20.2M in cap space): A team known for being aggressive in free agency in the past is likely to be more focused on taking care of their own. They have already tagged Josh Allen and may want to keep Calvin Ridley. The Jaguars are also entering the final year of having Trevor Lawrence on a low-cost deal and will likely enter negotiations for an extension. With money needing to be committed to players they want to keep, they aren't likely to be active in free agency this year.
Steelers ($18.4M in cap space): The Steelers do not make it a practice to be aggressive in free agency and 2024 should be no different. They are almost certain to follow the practice of retaining their own players first and looking for value otherwise. They do have interest in Russell Wilson and I could see them signing him, then either shopping Kenny Pickett or keeping him as a backup.
Buccaneers ($14.8M in cap space): The Bucs have already retained Mike Evans and are working to do the same with Baker Mayfield. They also gave the franchise tag to Antoine Winfield Jr., meaning they won't be in a position to be aggressive in free agency. But even if they get Winfield extended soon, they shouldn't be aggressive in free agency. Signing Mayfield to a team-friendly deal isn't a bad idea because it would allow the Bucs to see how things work out in 2024, then figure out the next steps in 2025.
Packers ($13.62M in cap space): The Packers have shown more willingness to explore free agency under their current regime but need to avoid it this time around. Though Jordan Love showed promise in 2023, it's not a given that he is the QB to build around. The Packers should continue to build through the draft and keep themselves in a position that allows them to move on from Love after 2024 should he not improve further.
Panthers ($11.9M in cap space): The Panthers were wise to tag Brian Burns but it now leaves them in a position in which they can't be aggressive in free agency. The Panthers need to do a lot of reassessment, given that things haven't worked out with Bryce Young thus far and that they lack draft capital. They need to be patient, because it's going to take more than a season or two to get back on track, particularly if Young doesn't improve in 2024.
Browns ($4.95M in cap space): The Browns traded for wide receiver Jerry Jeudy and are down to five draft picks, plus they are tight against the cap as of March 10. The DeShaun Watson contract makes it difficult for them to be aggressive in free agency. No matter what they do going forward, they should not touch Watson's contract, because they don't want to make things worse, especially if Watson has another disappointing season.
Cowboys ($2.24M in cap space): Once again, the Cowboys aren't likely to be active in free agency. Right now, their task is to take care of their own rather than pursue players from other teams. They have to figure out an extension for CeeDee Lamb, they will have to decide whether or not to extend Dak Prescott and they have a Micah Parsons extension to get done in the future.
Chiefs ($1.25M in cap space): They recently extended Chris Jones and have placed the tag on L'Jarius Sneed, which means they cannot be aggressive in free agency. However, the Chiefs have made it a practice to focus on one free agent they really want, then look for value otherwise. Given that they have extended Jones, I don't see them chasing after another free agent, even if they trade Sneed.
Ravens ($180K above the cap): After extending Justin Madubuike, the Ravens will have some work to do to become cap compliant. They are seldom aggressive in free agency and, after the Madubuike deal, they won't be in position to be aggressive this season. I can see the Ravens generating plenty of compensatory picks given there are some good players whose deals have expired.
Niners ($285K above the cap): The Niners are likely to roll it back with their current roster, though it's possible they cut or trade a player to become cap compliant. What they need to do this season is figure out if Brock Purdy is the QB to build around. He did show improvement in 2023 but it's not a given that he's the guy. Should he show more improvement in 2024, their money will likely go toward extending him.
Saints ($10.9M above the cap): The Saints have basically done the same thing they've done the past two seasons: Kick the can down the road. They are already projected to be above the 2025 cap by a massive amount. I could see the Saints agreeing to trade at least one player. There's also the question about which players get the post-June 1 designation, as they structured three different players to suggest that move but may only use the designation on two players.
Bills ($14.8M above the cap): The Bills made multiple cuts, which signals they know that it's time to reassess their position and not keep chasing after a Super Bowl. They still need to make a couple more moves to become cap compliant but it's clear they're going to use the draft to replenish the roster. The good news is the Bills could see plenty of compensatory picks coming their way in 2025.
Chargers ($21.1M above the cap): The Chargers have to make decisions on players on the current roster and not attempt to keep the band together. Even though they expect that Jim Harbaugh should get them into playoff contention, they cannot keep everyone around, particularly because so many players around Justin Herbert are aging. From there, they need to commit cash toward extending younger players who are worth keeping.
Dolphins ($23M above the cap): The Dolphins will likely roll it back one more time with the current roster but have some decisions to make. I've said it before and will say it again: They must ask themselves if Tua Tagovailoa is the QB they wish to build around. If they believe he is, then extend him, but if not, they have to figure out where else on the roster they can make moves to ensure they are cap compliant.