How the Bills Identified 'Our Guy' And Got Him
Josh Allen's success in the NFL thus far is, in part, because the Bills targeted him without leveraging too much for him.
In the 2018 NFL draft, there were five quarterbacks who were discussed as possible first-round picks. Among them was Josh Allen, a quarterback who had some of the traits one looks for in an NFL starting QB, but wasn't an accurate passer.
Allen's less-than-ideal accuracy as a passer caused plenty of people who follow the NFL to have their doubts about whether or not he would excel in the NFL. (I was among those skeptics.)
Then I heard the reports that the Bills had interest in Allen and were thinking about trading up to get him. Sure enough, that's what happened, as the Bills made multiple moves up the first round in 2018 -- first, moving from 19th to 12th overall in a trade with the Bengals that included offensive tackle Cordy Glenn, then moving from 12th to 7th overall in a trade with the Buccaneers, which led to the selection of Allen.
Move ahead to 2020 and, not only is Allen coming off his best season as a pro, but he's silenced many critics about his accuracy.
How did Allen manage to succeed, despite evidence pointing to him not likely to succeed?
In researching what has happened in past attempts by NFL teams to acquire starting quarterbacks, I wanted to ask why so many of these attempts have failed. But I noticed Allen, who has worked out well thus far for the Bills, and took a closer look at what the Bills did.
Jason LaCanfora detailed how the Bills came to their decision to target Allen, and how the pieces fell into place to make it possible to select him. What's worth noting, though, was that the Bills did a thorough job of evaluating every QB prospect in 2018, until they had set their sights on Allen.
A few things to note about how the Bills came to their decision and how they made it happen:
They traded away multiple players from the previous regime who they didn't believe were absolutely necessary to build the team. In doing so, they accumulate multiple picks.
They spent time scouting every QB prospect, but with the intent of finding "our guy" rather than "a guy."
They used the picks they accumulated to move up the board and get into a position to get a QB, but without giving up too much to move up.
When draft day arrived, they had a deal agreed to in principle, but when that didn't materialize, they moved quickly to negotiate another deal.
In other words, the Bills narrowed down their QB search to "our guy" but made sure they didn't give up too much too soon. They were willing to give up a lot once they identified "our guy," but not before.
Not every move the Bills made prior to the Allen selection worked out (the Kelvin Benjamin trade, for example, was a flop) but the Bills didn't put themselves into a position in which they didn't have the means to properly build the team around a quarterback.
Since drafting Allen, the Bills not only have had stability on the coaching staff, but they've identified other personnel who can bring out the best in their quarterback. They didn't just expect Allen to put the team on his shoulders.
This, I believes, explains the main reason why Allen excelled and why quarterbacks such as Sam Darnold have failed. The Jets made their draft day move long before draft day, giving up a lot just to move from sixth to third overall, have had turnover both in the front office and coaching staff, and have made multiple personnel moves that didn't bring out the best in Darnold.
Darnold isn't the only example of QBs that failed because teams didn't do a good job of utilizing their resources once they got a QB or having a disconnect between the QB and the coaching staff. A few examples that come to mind:
* The Bears traded for Jay Cutler but did a poor job building an offense that played to his strengths as a passer.
* Washington drafted Robert Griffin III but he and head coach Mike Shanahan never appeared to be on the same page and there were claims from Shanahan that owner Dan Snyder was stepping in to dictate offensive plays.
* The Panthers gave up a third-round pick for Broncos backup QB Jeff Lewis in 1999, a couple of years after the Jaguars had done the same for Packers backup QB Mark Brunell. It’s not clear if the Panthers were simply trying to duplicate what the Jaguars did, but Lewis never started a game for them.
On the other hand, you can look at the Chiefs, in which it seems everyone in the organization at the time was on board with getting Patrick Mahomes. They did pay a high price to get him, but everyone in the building wanted him, and it worked out well. (It’s worth noting the Bills passed on Mahomes in the trade down, but they had their reasons why.)
Getting back to the Bills, not every team may be able to duplicate every step they took that led them to the Allen selection. However, identifying "our guy" and making moves when they were in position to make them was the way they best ensured their chance for success.
What people need to remember is that if you get too anxious to get a QB -- even if it's been a long time since you had a good QB -- you can make bad decisions more often than you make good ones.
Remember that the Bills hadn't had a truly great QB since the days of Jim Kelly, before things fell into place for them to get Allen. And while only time will tell if Allen will continue to excel, the Bills have a better situation now than they did when, say, they traded for Drew Bledsoe in 2002, only to trade up for JP Losman a year later.
The Bills took their time to evaluate their position and made appropriate moves to start, took time to identify what they liked in available QBs, made a move up the board that didn't cost them too much, identified Allen as their target and made a final move to get him.
Taking the time to evaluate a quarterback, rather than just assuming a QB will solve everything, is the best way to ensure a bold move to get one succeeds. If you just make a bold move for the sake of doing so, you're not going to get the results you think you will.