How the Trump Campaign Could Lose the Election
The Republicans won't win if they chase away too many voters.
It was a little more than a month ago that there was an assassination attempt against former President and current GOP Presidential nominee Donald Trump.
But in today's environment in which even the biggest of headlines can fade away as everyone moves on to the next topic, a significant event like that seems to be a fading memory.
In fact, ever since Joe Biden got talked into stepping out of the Presidential race and the Democrat leaders were quick to get behind Kamala Harris as the nominee, Republicans have been falling into the habit of what they usually do, and that's react to whatever it is the Democrats put forward, rather than take a proactive approach to bring more voters into the fold.
Sometimes the reactions the Republicans have are understandable, but in other cases, it gets them off track. It's one thing, for example, to question Tim Walz amid the concern about stolen valor, because it's an issue that matters to veterans.
It's another thing, though, to spend time on banal topics such as whether Kamala Harris identifies as black or Indian American or whether or not Joe Rogan should say anything nice about Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Stuff like this serves only to be a distraction from what really concerns voters.
I think Dave Smith puts it best in his latest appearance on Tucker Carlson's podcast, regarding what the real divide is in this country (the whole podcast is worth your time). He says the divide really isn't about left versus right, even if it's portrayed that way. It's about the establishment versus the dissenters. The way I've described it is "top versus bottom" and others might describe it as "the haves versus the have nots." Regardless, the real divide is between the ruling class and the rest of the population who are often at the mercy of the rules in place.
The establishment is not simply the Democratic Party. The truth is, there are a lot of Republicans who are part of the establishment, but they fall into two camps. One would be Republicans who don't like Trump to the point they want anybody but him, while the other would be those who just want a Republican in the White House, even if it’s Trump, so they can control the switches already in place.
But what the Trump movement is mostly about are those who want to stick it to the establishment. They have legitimate concerns and Trump is the only one they saw in 2016 who was willing to address them. In 2024, there have been others who came forward, but Trump was still the symbol of that movement, particularly after all the legal action taken against him by either state or federal authorities.
The concerns in question are about how the playing field favors the establishment when it comes to economic policy, immigration policy, bureaucratic influence and foreign policy. Specific concerns going into the 2024 election include inflation, proxy wars and the diminished trust in federal agencies.
But these concerns aren't held solely by Trump voters. There are a lot of independents who hold similar concerns. The same can be true of Democrats who have become unhappy with their own party, plus Republicans who don't like Trump but could be persuaded to back him. There are also the voters best described as "disillusioned," in that they don't believe anything changes, regardless of who gets their vote, so they just stop voting.
It's those camps that are the ones most likely to decide the 2024 Presidential election. But Republicans and Trump voters aren't going to get those camps on their side if they fall into the trap of doing things that push them away.
While not all Trump voters expect unquestioned loyalty, there are those who are prominent online who are acting that way. From firing back at Rogan because they think he endorsed RFK Jr. (he only said he liked him more than) to jumping on Kyle Rittenhouse because he disliked a Trump policy about guns and threatened to withhold his vote, these people are doing more to ensure Trump loses the election because they push potential voters away.
The Trump campaign and his loyalists cannot take it for granted that people will eventually turn on Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, then show up in droves to back Trump. They need to be proactive, not reactive, with their approach and figure out ways to sell people on voting for Trump. And that can only be done by sticking to the issues that concern voters the most.
Because if the Trump campaign isn't careful, the members could have a bad taste in their mouths after Election Day. And while some will blame outside forces for the outcome, the reality is that factors within the party, chosen by the campaign operatives and pushed by the loyalists, have as much to do with an election's outcome, if not more.
It's true the Democrats have done a lot of things that could jeopardize their chances, even if they received a recent boost in the polls. But the Republicans, including Trump himself, can do a lot to hurt their cause, too, if they aren't proactive in getting the voters who are most likely to decide the election.