How Will the Bengals Get a Burrow Extension Done?
Let's look at how a new deal for Joe Burrow might fit within the contract structure the Bengals tend to utilize.
A few weeks ago, the Los Angeles Chargers signed quarterback Justin Herbert to an extension that made him the highest-paid QB in terms of APY salary.
Herbert became the second quarterback from the 2020 NFL Draft to sign a long-term extension. (Jalen Hurts was the first, and while Jordan Love signed a new contract, his was a two-year deal.) Herbert surpassed Lamar Jackson in total guarantees, though he took slightly less fully guaranteed money.
Two QBs from the 2020 NFL Draft have yet to sign extensions: Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. While Tagovailoa may not get an extension until the Dolphins see more from him this season. Burrow has done more than enough to prove he's the long-term guy for the Bengals.
As far as why Burrow hasn't signed an extension as of this writing, this likely goes back to how the Bengals tend to structure their contracts.
The Bengals typically limit fully guaranteed money to signing bonuses and roster bonuses. For example, when they signed DJ Reader in 2020, they gave him a $16.25M signing bonus and a $4M roster bonus that year, plus a $5M fully guaranteed roster bonus in 2021. While the roster bonus did give Reader some protection, the Bengals still could get out of paying his $4.3M base salary that year if they decided to cut him.
The Bengals are often described as a "cash poor" team, in that they don't spend a lot of money from year to year. (Sometimes they have been called a "cheap" team because of their unwillingness to spend money.) And in the past, when it came to quarterback contracts, the Bengals didn't put up a lot of money to keep players.
When they extended Andy Dalton back in 2014, they gave him $17M fully guaranteed upon signing. That wasn't a lot of the total $96M sum he got in the six-year extension. Of course, Dalton wasn't an elite quarterback, so one could argue he wasn't really worth a lot of fully guaranteed money.
However, when it comes to Burrow, he's clearly a top 10 quarterback and plenty of people would put him in the top five. Thus, there's no chance that he'll get a contract in which he gets less than 20 percent of the total amount, fully guaranteed upon signing.
Therefore, how are the Bengals going to make things work when it comes to Burrow's extension? Let's consider a few things.
First, with Herbert getting $133.7M in full guarantees and Jackson getting $135M, it's likely that Burrow will approach $136M or more in full guarantees. As for total guarantees, Herbert got $193.7M, so it wouldn't surprise me if Burrow got to $195M or more.
Burrow is already due $29.5M in 2024 on the fifth-year option of his rookie deal. Herbert got a significant amount of fully guaranteed money beyond the fifth-year option, so Burrow will no doubt look for a similar deal.
Ideally, the Bengals would get an extension done at some point during this season so they have more years in which they can spread out a signing bonus. Given that the Bengals gave Dalton a six-year extension, it would make sense for Burrow to get the same.
Burrow is already getting a base salary of a little more than $1M, plus a $4.5M roster bonus paid out on the first day of training camp. The Bengals wouldn't get cap relief this season from an extension, but they do have $19.6M in cap space this year, are projected to have $55M next year and, thus, have the ability to make numbers work.
The Chargers utilized option bonuses that will most certainly exercise in the future to make Herbert's deal work. The Bengals haven't utilized that type of structure, though. However, they could go forward with roster bonuses during the next couple of seasons, then restructure them into signing bonuses if they need cap relief.
Ideally, the Bengals would give Burrow a six-year extension. If signed this season, that would keep Burrow under contract through 2030.
If the Bengals stick with their usual approach to keeping fully guaranteed money in signing and roster bonuses, it probably makes sense for them to give Burrow at least a $50M signing bonus, which would raise his 2023 cap charge but still allow the Bengals to stay under the cap by a fair amount.
From there, the Bengals could convert more of his fifth-year option into a roster bonus, then decide if they want to convert that into a signing bonus to lower his cap number. Because his fifth-year option is already fully guaranteed, the Bengals could make an exception on their base salary approach, leaving whatever is left fully guaranteed.
After that comes 2025, at which time they could utilize a significant roster bonus with a small base salary. If they hold off on converting his roster bonus in 2024, they could easily convert such a roster bonus in 2025.
The question then becomes if the Bengals want to utilize yet another roster bonus in 2026. Given that there's little debate about Burrow being the long-term guy, the Bengals could decide to pay a fully guaranteed roster bonus in 2026. That would allow them to surpass the full guarantees that Jackson and Herbert got while not diverting away too much from their usual practice in how they pay out guarantees.
If the Bengals give Burrow a $50M signing bonus, then keep his 2024 pay at $29.5M, they would need to account for $55.5M more just to match Jackson's $135M in full guarantees. That wouldn't be difficult to pay out in 2025 and 2026. If we bump that $55.5M remaining up to $56M, they could find a way to split that amount between those years. From there, they can give Burrow some injury-only guaranteed money for 2027 in the form of a large roster bonus.
While the Bengals may not be a team that spends a lot of money, it's hard to see them deciding not to do so with Burrow, given that the Bengals have already reached two AFC title games and a Super Bowl with him at quarterback. Even with the injuries he's had, Burrow is arguable the best QB the Bengals have had, so they will find a way to pay him.
There will be some challenges when it comes to paying Burrow and some of his teammates. Most notably is Ja'Marr Chase, who could have his eyes on what other receivers are making. While the Bengals probably won't surpass whatever contract Justin Jefferson gets, they may have to exceed the deal for AJ Brown.
I don't think it's a question of whether or not the Bengals extend Burrow -- of course they will extend him at some point. The only question is how they get it done within the structure they typically utilize. Time will tell how the Bengals make the numbers work.