Immediate Impact From Rookie QBs Really Isn't The Rule

The 2021 rookie QB class got a lot of hype, but expecting them to win right out of the gates may have been expecting too much.

Back in 2012, three NFL rookie quarterbacks made big impressions, with Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson each playing under center for teams that made the playoffs, when the year prior, those teams missed the playoffs and two finished last in their divisions.

The 2012 QB draft class may have been the first one to get people thinking about how much a rookie QB could make an impact on the NFL. If all it took to get you from being one of the worst teams in the NFL to being a playoff contender was a top rookie QB, then why wouldn't be that case for every top QB prospect in a draft class?

Of course, some perspective is needed here. RG3 failed to follow up his strong rookie season, Wilson was a third-round pick in which nearly everyone thought he was too short to play QB, and Luck played most of his rookie season with interim head coach Bruce Arians, who would go on to make the Arizona Cardinals a regular playoff contender and, later, won a Super Bowl for the Buccaneers.

And the final point is the 2013 QB draft class, in which there wasn't much excitement surrounding the prospects.

However, what if that 2013 draft class had been as highly touted as the 2021 draft class? No doubt there would have been a lot of hype about how any one of those prospects was destined to be the next QB to turn a team's fortunes around.

But that brings us to the 2021 draft class, in which none of them has really proven himself to be the guy who can make a team an instant playoff contender. Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson play for teams that are winless as of this writing, Justin Fields struggled in his first NFL start, Mac Jones hasn't been bad but has his limitations and Trey Lance, though he's played a few downs, has yet to be given the starting job.

Between the 2021 QB prospects and that Justin Herbert was wowing people as a rookie in 2020, people may have forgotten that the rule for rookie QBs is that they tend to struggle.

A quick check of Football Outsiders DYAR since 2011 shows that, while there are a few QBs who did quite well as rookies, most of them who threw at least 200 passes didn't score that high in DYAR, which measure yards above replacement level when adjusted for opponent defenses.

Among those who did score high were Dak Prescott (1,302 in 2016), Herbert (861 in 2020, Russell Wilson (872 in 2012) and RG3 (727 in 2012).

However, in 2012, Andrew Luck had just 257 DYAR -- which is more in line for a rookie QB who struggles at times, but by season's end, is figuring out NFL play and how to make quicker and better decisions.

You can look at rookie QBs and find a pattern that those who went to have some NFL success didn't score that high as rookies: Cam Newton (407 in 2011), Andy Dalton (573 in 2011), DeShaun Watson (497 in 2017), Baker Mayfield (628 in 2018), Kyler Murray (305 in 2019) and Joe Burrow (108 in 2020). These QBs would be closer to "typical rookie season" in that they struggled at times, but did plenty of good things, too.

(Note: Lamar Jackson didn't have at least 200 passing attempts in his rookie season and scored 24 in 2018, while Patrick Mahomes started just one game in 2017 and posted 54 DYAR.)

The time to really be concerned about a rookie QB is when the rookie has negative DYAR for the season, particularly when it's historically high. Two of the worst were Blaine Gabbert (-1,010 in 2011) and Josh Rosen (-1,145 in 2018), with Blake Bortles right up there (-955 in 2014). None of those three proved to be capable NFL starters over the long term.

Out of NFL rookie QBs who posted DYAR of -100 or lower as rookies, two managed to have some success in future years: Jared Goff (-881 in 2016) and Josh Allen (-534 in 2018). For both, though, there were definite questions at one time about whether they were ever going to be at least a good QB.

The real question to ask for the 2021 rookie QBs is how these QBs improve during the course of the season -- not whether they reach new heights for rookie QBs or how many take their teams to the playoffs.

I haven't watched all the rookie QBs in depth, and it's easy to blame one element above all else for their struggles. However, when rookie QBs struggle, I've found it's always a combination of factors, not a single factor above all else.

Having read up on the QBs and what they've done to this point, here's my take on what is likely the issue with each rookie QB.

* Trevor Lawrence: His issues right now are the timing of his throws and learning when it's OK to throw the ball away. He does have some work to do in reading NFL defenses, too. Once he gets those things figured out, he should improve and become the top NFL passer most have pegged him to become.

As for issues not in his control, the Jaguars were a team in need of a lot of rebuilding. They don't have a good offensive line and their defensive secondary is bad. Jags GM Trent Baalke was hit or miss in his stint with the Niners, but only time will tell if he does a better job in Jacksonville. And, of course, Urban Meyer has a lot to learn about what it means to be an NFL coach.

* Justin Fields: It's easy to blame Bears head coach Matt Nagy for everything, and yes, he deserves some blame. He hasn't done the best job with play calling when Fields is out there. It also hasn't helped that the Bears don't have a good offensive line and are lacking quality wide receivers other than Allen Robinson (and much of that falls on Ryan Pace and his work as GM).

But Fields has plenty of issues to fix himself. Like Lawrence, he needs to be quicker with his decision making and he needs to know when it's OK to throw the ball away. Changing the plays that are called isn't going to fix that -- it's up to Fields to figure it out. But, as with Lawrence, once Fields figures those things out, he should improve.

* Zach Wilson: The Jets quarterback heads a team that is rebuilding, doesn't have a veteran who can truly push him, lost its best offensive lineman to injury and needs more help in the receiving corps. Time will tell if Joe Douglas gets things figured out and how George Saleh learns and grows as a head coach.

As for Wilson, his decision making remains suspect and, like Lawrence and Fields, he still needs to figure out when it's all right to throw the ball away. Unlike Lawrence and Fields, Wilson didn't have multiple years of success in college football, so it's possible it could take him longer to figure things out. While I think Lawrence and Fields should get to positive DYAR by season's end, Wilson might not do that.

* Mac Jones: The Patriots changed their offseason approach and threw a lot of money into free agency, but it hasn't quite yielded the expected results. They haven't drafted that well in early rounds in recent years, either. It was easy to think that getting everybody who missed 2020 back into the lineup would take care of things, but while it's helped the defense, that hasn't let to success on offense.

It is asking too much of Jones to carry the offense, but at the same time, he's got his own issues -- namely that he almost never takes shot downfield, even when they are there. Like the others, he does need to be quicker with his decision making. If he doesn't take more chances in pushing the ball downfield, that could limit his chances of getting out of negative DYAR by season's end.

* Trey Lance: Because he hasn't started a game yet, it's too soon to say what he needs to work on. He does have a good coaching staff, but I've previously questioned whether or not the Niners are doing a good job building the team. But check back whenever Lance gets named the starter, because then we'll get a clearer picture about him.

(Final note: For more about the rookie QBs, I recommend this discussion by Bryan Knowles and Andrew Potter with Football Outsiders.)