Justin Jefferson and the WR Market
After the Vikings wide receiver signed a massive deal, what does it mean for other WRs who are up for extensions?
In what tends to be the quiet portion of the NFL offseason, big news started off the month of June as Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson signed a four-year, $140M contract extension.
As Jason Fitzgerald detailed at Over the Cap, Jefferson's contract is a true market mover. Jefferson blew past the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle and A.J. Brown when it came to full guarantees, total guarantees and cash flow.
After the Jefferson extension became news, many have speculated about what will happen next with the wide receiver market. Some might wonder if Jefferson's deal could lead to a massive contract at another position. On the latter point, Jefferson also blew past Nick Bosa, who had the largest contract for any position other than quarterback before the Jefferson deal was announced.
To briefly touch upon the Vikings, they were in position to offer such a contract because they selected JJ McCarthy in the first round of the 2024 draft. Their hope is that McCarthy will prove to be the QB to build around, and if that holds up, he gives the Vikings a QB on an inexpensive deal relative to the market. Thus, they can afford to spend more money elsewhere.
But now let's look at the question about how the rest of the wide receiver market will be impacted. There are a host of receivers who are eligible for extensions who could get talked up as a player to at least approach the contract that Jefferson signed.
Tyreek Hill: The Dolphins wide receiver once had the highest benchmarks for receiver contracts but, even before Jefferson signed his extension, Hill was surpassed by other receivers when it came to total guarantees. He has three years left on his contract, which was backloaded with a $43.9M base salary in 2026.
Hill will be 30 years old this season and, while he is still playing at a high level, the question will be how much longer he has before his eventual decline. When the Dolphins acquired Hill, he was still in his 20s and it made sense to extend him then. Now, it's another question.
The Dolphins also have to concern themselves with an extension for Tua Tagovailoa if they are convinced he's their long-term quarterback. The Dolphins have also committed a fair amount of money to other positions. Thus, an extension for Hill carries plenty of risk, even after a season in which he was considered an MVP candidate.
Ja'Marr Chase: The Bengals exercised the fifth-year option for their 2021 first-round pick and Chase has skipped voluntary workouts. It's not surprising that Chase would seek a massive extension now, even before Jefferson agreed to his deal.
Chase probably won't surpass Jefferson's deal but he has a case to surpass AJ Brown. Chase does have a good rapport with Joe Burrow and was still a productive player when Burrow missed time with injuries last season.
The main issue with the Bengals is they already have another receiver who is seeking an extension. We'll get to that player next, but when it comes to Chase, it's possible we might not see movement on a new contract until 2025.
Tee Higgins: The Bengals used the franchise tag on Higgins, who might be considered the No. 2 receiver behind Chase. Higgins has had some quality seasons, though he's not somebody I would consider to be a true No. 1 receiver.
However, after the contracts that Waddle and DeVonta Smith signed, Higgins has an argument to approach those numbers. The question is whether the Bengals are comfortable paying him and Chase significant sums of money over the long term.
I had argued that the Bengals should have tried to trade Higgins. I did mention that the Bengals were in position to ask for a first-round pick as part of a trade package, but after the Chiefs traded L'Jarius Sneed for a 2025 third, the Bengals weren't going to get a first for Higgins. Still, a third-round pick would have been reasonable to expect for Higgins.
Regardless, it appears that the Bengals will simply sign Higgins to a one-year deal, barring a surprise by the deadline to sign franchise tagged players to a multi-year deal. If that does happen, I suspect the Bengals let Higgins walk after the 2024 season.
CeeDee Lamb: The Cowboys have a lot of contract matters to address. Along with a likely extension for Micah Parsons and the question about what to do with Dak Prescott, they need to get a deal done with Lamb.
Lamb is coming off his best season as a pro. He had a good rookie season despite Prescott missing the majority of games. While Lamb may not be in position to surpass Jefferson's deal, he's another receiver who has a case for surpassing Brown.
With several contract questions for the Cowboys to answer, it remains to be seen which they address first. It's possible they could focus on Prescott first, given that he has a no-tag provision in his deal, then go with the tag on Lamb if necessary. But whatever the Cowboys do at quarterback, Lamb is somebody they should work to keep.
Brandon Aiyuk: At one point, the Niners were reportedly looking to trade Aiyuk. The 2020 first-round pick has surpassed 1,000 yards the past two seasons and has been more productive than teammate Deebo Samuel, who has two years left on his deal.
Aiyuk is somebody who might argue that he should be compensated similar to St. Brown, even though Aiyuk hasn't received Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors. But Aiyuk should at least be viewed as similar to the likes of Waddle and Smith.
The Niners would be able to cut or trade Samuel next season, which would free up resources to tag Aiyuk and then extend him. Of course, it won't be long before the Niners have to figure out what to do with Brock Purdy (he's eligible for an extension next year) and they did recently extend Christian McCaffrey. But if Aiyuk continues to improve, the Niners will need to determine how important it is to retain him.