Lamar Jackson Vs. The Ravens: Who Is Risking More?
After Jackson and the Ravens failed to come to terms on an extension, it's worth asking if Jackson should just play the tag game.
The Baltimore Ravens and quarterback Lamar Jackson failed to come to terms on a new contract last week and have thus decided not to negotiate any longer until after the season.
The reports are that Jackson is seeking a contract in which the entire amount is fully guaranteed, which is not something the Ravens want to pay.
Jackson may have his eyes on the five-year, fully guaranteed contract that the Browns gave DeShaun Watson when the former Texans QB was on the trading block. However, even if one argues that Watson set the market, it was going to be difficult for Jackson to get such a deal if he was only negotiating with his current team.
With that said, if Jackson is trying to get such a deal, he's probably better off not signing a deal at this point. He may want to play the franchise tag for the next couple of seasons.
Let's consider Jackson's case and find out why going the franchise tag may benefit him more.
Time to Play the Tag Game
First, consider the two quarterbacks who have been able to get their entire contracts fully guaranteed: Watson and Kirk Cousins.
I would say that NFL owners are correct that Watson is a true anomaly because his contract came about like this: He was allowed to seek a trade, told by the Texans to pick the team he wanted and he visited with four teams. Watson ruled out the Browns first, narrowed his choices to the Falcons and the Saints, only for the Browns to jump back into the picture. The Browns offered him a five-year, fully guaranteed deal that would replace his current deal.
In summary, Watson was effectively able to sell his services to the highest bidder, and said highest bidder made the ultimate "all in" move.
Cousins, on the other hand, played for two straight seasons under the franchise tag while he was with Washington. It was understandable that the team would use the tag the first year because Cousins had just one full season as the starter. The sides were unable to come to terms on an extension, though, after he got the tag a second time.
In getting the tag two straight years, Cousins was able to increase his asking price. When Washington chose not to tag him a third time, Cousins hit free agency and was able to negotiate with multiple teams. He ultimately got the three-year, fully guaranteed deal from the Vikings.
The way the Vikings structured the contract put themselves into a position in which they have twice had to restructure and extend his contract, thus ensuring Cousins gets more fully guaranteed money. While Cousins hasn't reset the QB market, he's ensuring he gets paid well, perhaps more than some might be willing to pay.
Cousins is the better comparison for Jackson for this reason: Cousins is able to convince the Vikings that they don't have better options than him. Or to put it another way, Cousins can ask the Vikings this question: "Do you believe you can be as good or better without me at QB than with me at QB?"
The Vikings are one of those teams that, while not a top team, have found themselves in the wild card race the past couple of seasons. And while Cousins may not be a top 10 QB, finding a replacement that would keep the Vikings at least in the wild card race is not an easy task.
Cousins was able to leverage his situation by playing the tag game for a couple of seasons, then hitting free agency and getting the chance to negotiate with multiple suitors. And given that these suitors really wanted a quality QB, Cousins got a deal that favored him.
It's what Andrew Brandt has called "winning the business of football." A quarterback that understands how to play the tag game stands a good chance of getting a favorable deal. That is certainly something Jackson can play with the Ravens.
What It Means for the Ravens
If the Ravens were to utilize an exclusive franchise tag on Jackson, he would not be able to negotiate with other teams, but it would cost the Ravens more. The non-exclusive tag route costs less, but lets Jackson negotiate with other teams.
The Ravens would get two first-round picks as compensation if another team signed Jackson to an offer sheet that the Ravens are unwilling to match. However, two firsts were included in the trade package for safety Jamal Adams, so it's clear the Ravens should seek more than that in a trade package. If they use the non-exclusive tag, teams have no incentive to negotiate, because two firsts for a QB like Jackson are worth it.
One can also look to the Russell Wilson trade, in which the Broncos had to send two first, two seconds and three players. Considering that Jackson is younger than Wilson, I would want three firsts to be part of a trade package, along with additional picks and/or players. I'm not just going to want two firsts for signing an offer sheet I don't match, and I certainly don't want just a third-round compensatory pick if I lose Jackson in free agency.
Jason Fitzgerald at Over the Cap went over the numbers for the tag and what it means for the Ravens. To sum up, the exclusive franchise tag would be $45M, based off current numbers, while the non-exclusive tag is between $31M and $33M.
If the Ravens use the exclusive tag, they would be unable to explore free agency because that tag number would take up all of their estimated $44M cap space for 2023. And because the Ravens have just 41 players under contract for 2023, their effective cap space would be $36.5M once they get 51 players under contract. Thus, the Ravens would have to restructure deals to fit the tag for Jackson under the cap.
If the Ravens used an exclusive tag for two straight seasons, they would be paying Jackson more than $100M over two seasons -- a great deal for Jackson.
The tag numbers could change depending on what teams decided to restructure their QB contracts in 2023. I'll refer you to Fitzgerald's summary, but the Ravens do have to ask themselves if other teams might decide to hold off on restructuring their QB deals to keep a tag number higher than it might be otherwise.
What It Means for Jackson
However, there are those that will talk about Jackson's play style and how he's more at risk for injury. Some might point to what happened to Cam Newton, who went from being an MVP in 2015 to out of the NFL by 2022.
But some context is needed here. First, Newton earned all but one year's worth of base salary (about $16M) on the five-year, $103.8M extension he signed in 2015. The Panthers didn't release him until 2020, so it wasn't like Newton was gone after two seasons and, thus, lost out on the majority of the money he could have earned.
Second, one needs to ask about how well the Panthers did in building the team around Newton after his MVP season. One might argue they didn't do a good job with the offensive line and others might argue about the lack of receiving talent. While they wouldn't be the sole reasons for Newton's decline, they may have played a role in his statistics.
Third, just because Newton declined quite a bit doesn't mean Jackson will face the same fate. Jackson has shown he can an effective pocket passer, and that requires more than just the ability to run to keep defenses guessing. Furthermore, the Ravens have historically done a good job of building their roster and have one of the better head coaches in the NFL, John Harbaugh.
While there isn't zero risk to Jackson playing the tag game, I believe the risk is blown out of proportion. Because teams are desperate for quality quarterback play, QBs are in a better position to go the tag route. They may not get everything they want, but they can get more of what they want, particularly if they demonstrate that their team is not as good or better without him in the lineup than with him.
A good example here is Dak Prescott. Though Prescott didn't get every penny fully guaranteed, he wanted a four-year deal when the Cowboys wanted a longer deal. After Prescott was lost to injury in 2020 while playing under the tag, the Cowboys didn't play well. Thus, Prescott gained leverage.
Bottom Line
My opinion is that it's the Ravens who risk more than Jackson by playing the tag game. The Ravens would have to do a lot of juggling to be cap compliant if they use the exclusive tag in 2023 -- and that's the only tag that will allow them to ensure they get appropriate compensation if they decide to trade him.
If the Ravens give him the exclusive tag, Jackson should sign it and continue negotiating. Ultimately, the Ravens would have to make a decision about an extension to get the cap number lowered or figure out a way to stay cap compliant while Jackson plays under the tag.
What Jackson must keep in mind is, as long as he can only negotiate with the Ravens, he won't necessarily get everything he wants. But he does need to decide what is ultimately most important in a new deal.
Jackson reportedly turned down more fully guaranteed money than what Wilson got, though it's worth asking about details such as contract structure and cash flow. Still, Jackson does need to remember that, when negotiations are with just one team, a deal like Watson's is going to be difficult to achieve.
But if Jackson wants to get a deal like Cousins got, he'll need to be prepared to play the tag game for a couple of seasons and be patient. The money for the exclusive tag over the next two seasons is worth it.
If the Ravens did the unexpected and went with the non-exclusive tag, that favors Jackson. He can choose not to sign the tag and, instead, put up his services for bid, because the non-exclusive tag means he can negotiate with other teams. Somebody may very well be willing to give him everything he wants.
Of course, Jackson does need to play well in 2022. However, if he does so, he makes a stronger case to get what he wants -- and it's the Ravens who have to take on a greater risk.