Looking at Four NFL High-Profile Trades
What are the ramifications of the more significant NFL trades of the past week?
The NFL free agency period doesn't officially start until March 16 (though teams can start negotiating contracts with pending free agents on March 14) but we've already had multiple trades take place this past week.
Each of the trades turned heads for one reason or another and each begs the question as to who is getting what out of these trades.
Let's go over them, one by one, and see if we can understand what the teams in question were doing in each case.
Seahawks trade QB Russell Wilson to Broncos
The first trade came on the heels of Aaron Rodgers announcing he was going to stay with the Green Bay Packers. The Denver Broncos, who had been connected to Rodgers, completed a trade about an hour later, acquiring Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks.
The price paid was pretty high: Denver's 2022 and 2023 first-round picks, Denver's own 2022 and 2023 second-round picks (the Broncos kept the second rounder acquired from the Rams), a 2022 fifth-round pick and three players (Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris) while getting a 2022 fourth back from the Seahawks.
The Broncos were one of many teams in need of a quarterback and filled that need with one of the top QBs in the NFL. Most of the talking points centered on how good Wilson is compared to other QBs, but honestly, the only QBs in the AFC who are clearly better than Wilson are Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. It's debatable whether Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert are better, while nobody else in the AFC enters the debate.
The real risk to the Broncos is that they leveraged a fair amount of draft capital and now need to be more aggressive in free agency to fill holes. Another talking point is that the Broncos have a great defense, but in 2022, the defense was good at times but far from being a top unit. Between injuries and underperforming players, the Broncos did not have the top unit they have had in the past and were an average unit overall.
The Broncos will need to fill holes at edge rusher, off-ball linebacker, defensive line and secondary depth to get a defense that will at least complement the offense.
With that said, the Broncos did get a massive upgrade at quarterback and have a passer who can raise the offense to a new level. There's plenty of talent at the skill positions and the main hole to fill is at right tackle.
It was a major roll of the dice by the Broncos, but one they arguably needed to make -- and if you're going to roll the dice like that, you may as well do it on a 33-year-old QB who still ranks in the top 10 at the position.
As for the Seahawks, they are entering a clear rebuild. On one hand, sometimes a team needs to acknowledge it needs to rebuild, even if that means parting with a top veteran QB. On the other hand, if the Seahawks were convinced they needed to rebuild, then why retain their current regime?
Pete Carroll will be 70 years old and it's anyone's guess how much longer he'll stick around. And is John Schneider the man you want overseeing the rebuild when his drafting has been spotty and some of his trades have been questionable (or do we need to bring up that trade for Jamal Adams again)?
The Seahawks certainly got more draft capital to work with, but now they have to hit on those picks. Furthermore, Carroll and Schneider now have hotter seats than before and it's possible they may not get more than 2022 to turn things around.
If the Seahawks manage to get a veteran quarterback -- and they have entered the conversation about which team might acquire DeShaun Watson -- Schneider and Carroll will still need to show they can build the roster around that QB and get back to the playoffs. If they don't get one, the regime might not get more than 2022 to prove themselves.
Colts trade QB Carson Wentz to the Commanders
After Carson Wentz failed to be the answer at quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts, the talk was that the Colts might cut ties with him altogether, despite $15M in fully guaranteed salary. Instead, the Washington Commanders entered the picture, trading for Wentz and taking on the entire $28M he's due in 2022 (the remaining $13M is injury-only guaranteed but becomes fully guaranteed early in the new league year).
The Colts surrendered a third-round pick in 2021 and a conditional 2022 pick, which became a first rounder after Wentz hit a snap threshold. The Colts kept rolling with Wentz when they were in the playoff hunt, but failed to make it.
In this trade, the Colts acquired a 2022 third-round pick and a conditional 2023 pick, a third rounder that becomes a second rounder if Wentz hits a snap threshold. The teams also swapped second-round picks.
That the Colts were able to find somebody willing to trade for Wentz was no small feat. They are able to unload all of his salary, have a lot of cap space to work with and get a couple of picks in return. The downside is they are still without a first-round pick this year and will be looking for their sixth starting QB since Andrew Luck's retirement.
As for the Commanders, the only reason I can see for making this trade is that the current regime has been given a message: Win or else. I'm not sure if Wentz is going to be the guy the Commanders can win with, though. Though the NFC is weaker overall in terms of QB play, the Commanders didn't really come closer to becoming a playoff contender through the acquisition of Wentz.
The one thing the Commanders must watch is the snap threshold. If Wentz approaches that mark (70 percent) and the Commanders clearly aren't in a position to make the playoffs, they need to bench him, lest they be forced to surrender a high second rounder. However, if they find themselves on the cusp of that seventh playoff spot, they could be in the same position the Colts were in this past season, having to go with Wentz while having no guarantee that playoff berth will become reality.
Bears trade EDGE Khalil Mack to the Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers needed to find players that fit their defense and got one such player in their trade for Khalil Mack. The Chicago Bears sent the pass rusher to the Chargers for a 2022 second and a 2023 sixth-round pick.
Some may wonder why the Bears would trade their top pass rusher. The reality is the Bears, while not in cap trouble, were lacking the space to properly build around quarterback Justin Fields. They also lacked draft capital and were going to lose a lot of snaps to free agency.
While trading Mack means more snap lost, the cap space freed gives the Bears a chance to explore free agency. They also acquire additional picks to help with finding players to build around Fields.
The Chargers, on the other hand, have reached the point that they needed to go "all in" on 2022 because of the cap space they had, the draft capital they had obtained, and having their young quarterback, Justin Herbert, entering what is likely his last cheap year.
The difference between Herbert and Fields is that Herbert has put together back-to-back seasons of quality play, while Fields had more of a typical rookie season in that he struggled, but showed some improvement. What that means, though, is Herbert is more likely to be in line to demand a new contract when he enters his fourth season, whereas Fields might be waiting until his fifth season.
Also, the Chargers are closer to being a playoff contender than the Bears, so the Chargers needed to make a bigger push. The Bears, meanwhile, need to continue their rebuild, but at least knowing they have the quarterback they can build around.
Cowboys trade WR Amari Cooper to Browns
The last of the significant trades happened Saturday, in which the Dallas Cowboys moved on from Amari Cooper, getting 2022 fifth and sixth-round picks from the Cleveland Browns.
The Cowboys were reportedly going to release Cooper because they didn't believe he fit their long-term plans. Cooper, who the Cowboys acquired from the Raiders for a first-round pick, took less money than expected to stay with the Cowboys when he was a free agent in 2020.
On the Cowboys' end, this was simply a case of getting at least something in return for a player they no longer wanted. They gained cap space with the trade and are now able to retain Michael Gallup, who will be an unrestricted free agent.
As for the Browns, they released Odell Beckham Jr. during the 2021 season and see Cooper as his replacement. However, the Browns will need to clear some cap space and the talk is that they may move on from Jarvis Landry.
How this helps the Browns remains to be seen. The Browns current regime is likely on the hot seat after missing the playoffs last season. Perhaps Cooper can be the No. 1 receiver they need, but if things don't work, I would expect some changes to be coming to the Browns organization.