Navigating the 2024 NFL Salary Cap: Bills
The Buffalo Bills are a Super Bowl contender that has been unable to reach the title game. How should they approach 2024 when it comes to the salary cap?
For the past several seasons, I've thought of the Buffalo Bills as the team that would break through and win their first Super Bowl. And for the past several seasons, that hasn't happened.
The Bills have ranked among the top teams in the NFL, whether one looks at traditional or advance statistics, but has come up short. From injuries to inconsistent play to simply a case of overtime rules not working in their favor (and that loss to the Chiefs two seasons ago didn't see any changes to the rules), something seems to work against the Bills in their quest for the Vince Lombardi trophy.
I've praised the Bills for identifying Josh Allen as "their guy" and targeting him in the 2018 NFL Draft. This comes after I was among the skeptics about whether Allen could become a quality NFL starting quarterback
I've also praised the Bills for their overall team building philosophy, in which they moved on from players they didn't want and accumulated draft capital, rather than assuming that because they made the playoffs in their first year of a new regime, that they were just a few players away from a Super Bowl.
But as the Bills have turned themselves into a legitimate Super Bowl contender, only for that championship to elude them, they are now a team that is at a crossroads. They are still built to pursue a Super Bowl but have to make decisions about personnel.
This is particularly true because the Bills are projected to be $38.2M over the cap in 2024 once they have 51 players under contract. They currently have 44 who are under contract and have 18 players who will be unrestricted free agents.
For teams who are pursuing a Super Bowl and still have a quarterback who is playing well, it might make sense to restructure some contracts to get under the cap. However, the Bills have to be careful how far they go, given that multiple players are aging.
Von Miller will be 35 years old next season, Stefon Diggs will be 31, Mitch Morse will be 32 and Dion Dawkins will be 30. Because offensive linemen tend to have long careers, Morse and Dawkins may be worth extending. However, the Bills have to be careful with Diggs because receivers tend to decline as they are in their 30s and Miller is at the point in which one has to ask how much longer he'll be playing.
As for pending unrestricted free agents, the Bills don't have anybody who is a must to retain. But they may want to think about bringing back one or two players, perhaps after they have tested the market.
Finally, there's Ed Oliver's extension, in which the Bills don't have a way to lower his cap number. They went with a $12.5M option bonus that is treated like a signing bonus. Thus, they don't have the means to lower his 2024 cap charge any more than it is.
How can the Bills get themselves in a better cap predicament without kicking too much down the road? Here are a few things I would consider.
Restructure QB Josh Allen: One player whose contract makes clear sense to restructure -- that is, to convert base salary or a roster bonus into a signing bonus -- is Allen. He is due a $6M roster bonus and that can be converted, along with some of his base salary. I went with $9M here, which lowers his cap number for 2024 without pushing too much down the road.
Trade TE Dawson Knox: The Bills selected Dalton Kincaid in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Given that they used a high draft pick on Kincaid, keeping Knox at a cap hit of $14.4M doesn't make sense. Trading Knox is the only way to move him for immediate cap relief. Though it's just $2.8M freed, it would allow the Bills to gain draft capital.
Extend CB Taron Johnson: Johnson is by no means a top cornerback but he is a solid player. He's due $6.45M in base salary and could be extended for that amount. I went with a three-year, $27M contract, with a $7.5M signing bonus, $1.5M base salary in 2024 and $4M of his 2025 salary fully guaranteed. This puts his cap number below $10M but gives them a way to get out of the deal in the future without much pain.
Cut S Jordan Poyer: The Bills brought Poyer back on a two-year deal and, while he has been solid, he'll be 33 next season. It may be better for the Bills to get younger and let him go. Perhaps they do a simple restructure and add void years for cap purposes, but I'd just cut him and be done with it.
Extend OT Dion Dawkins: The Bills left tackle is still playing at a high level and should be safe to extend. I came up with a five-year, $94M contract with $40M fully guaranteed. I structured it to get his cap charge down for 2024 to $11.7M.
Cut WR Deonte Harty: Harty hasn't been that productive this season and this shouldn't be a difficult decision to release him to save $4.1M in cap space.
Restructure C Mitch Morse's contract with two void years: Morse isn't playing as well as he has in the past so I wouldn't give him an extension. I did a restructure of his contract to add two void years to lower his cap charge to about $7.5M.
Those moves would give the Bills enough cap space to add players under futures contracts, get to 51 players, then be able to sign their draft picks.
If there are certain free agents they want to bring back, they may need to approach Miller about converting his injury-only guaranteed salary into incentives. Miller has $10.71M in salary that's fully guaranteed with the remaining $6.435M becoming fully guaranteed on March 21, 2024. The Bills would have to sell this to Miller as a way to ensure they can retain at least a couple of free agents.
Among those free agents, A.J. Epenesa might be worth bringing back at the right price. I would definitely let him test the market first. The Bills also have some role players who could be brought back on cheap contracts.
The main thing the Bills have to watch is going "all in" for 2024 if they don't win the Super Bowl this year. Though they don't need to act like the window is about to close, they need to be careful with what they do with their older players under contract so they have the means to get out of deals in 2025 if it comes to that.
Next week, we'll look at another team who had playoff aspirations for 2023, the Los Angeles Chargers.