Navigating the 2024 NFL Salary Cap: Dolphins
The current favorite to win the AFC East will need to become cap compliant next season. Here's a possible path forward.
The Miami Dolphins are likely to win the AFC East this season. They made the playoffs in the first season for head coach Mike McDaniel and, for 2023, their are increased expectations for a Super Bowl trip to cap things off.
The Dolphins have also been aggressive in free agency and trades in recent seasons, but now will have some decisions to make as they are projected to be $37.9M over the cap for 2024 once they get 51 players under contract (they currently have 36).
Additionally, the Dolphins have 20 pending unrestricted free agents, though the majority of them aren't priorities to retain. However, those free agents include three of the five starting offensive linemen (Isaiah Wynn, Connor Williams, Robert Hunt), plus Christian Wilkins, who is playing well and may be in line for a big contract.
What the Dolphins do to become cap compliant will depend a lot on how things go for them in the postseason. If they do win the Super Bowl, they will certainly want to go for a repeat and may be tempted to do more to keep everyone together.
On the other hand, if they don't reach the Super Bowl, everything depends on how far they go in the playoffs. Reach the AFC title game and there may be justification for keeping more of the roster intact. Go one-and-done and they will be better off reassessing their position.
I'm going to operate under the assumption that the Dolphins don't make it to the Super Bowl (the Chiefs remain the AFC favorite to make it until somebody beats them in the AFC playoffs). Here are some of the moves the Dolphins should consider to get themselves on the path toward cap compliance.
Cut edge rusher Emmanuel Ogbah: The Dolphins took a chance on Ogbah in 2020 and he was productive for the next two seasons. They extended him in 2022 but his production has dropped quite a bit. This should be the easiest decision for the Dolphins to make. Cutting him saves $13.8M in cap space.
Extend LB Jerome Baker: The Dolphins gave Baker a three-year extension in 2021 and he has remained a productive player. He'll be just 28 years old next season. It should be safe to give him another three-year extension through 2027, which would lower his $14.8M cap charge.
Restructure the contract for edge rusher Bradley Chubb: The Dolphins sent multiple picks to the Broncos for Chubb last season, extended him and he is playing at a high level. Chubb is the one player who should be safe to restructure to lower his $26.8M cap number. The Dolphins would likely need to add a void year to the end of his deal (2028) for cap purposes.
Cut CB Xavien Howard with a post-June 1 designation: Howard gets a $3M roster bonus if he's on the roster on March 18, plus $4M of his base salary becomes guaranteed. The Dolphins need to part ways with Howard before that date. Using the post-June 1 designation means they won't get immediate cap relief, but the $18.5M freed after June 1 would give them more than enough space to sign their draft picks.
Decide what to do with QB Tua Tagovailoa: The Dolphins exercised the fifth-year option for Tagovailoa to the tune of a $23.17M fully guaranteed base salary. They need to get that number lowered, but the question is how much do the Dolphins want to extend him. If the Dolphins truly believe Tagovailoa is their guy, they need to go forward with an extension.
If they truly have their doubts about him, they have to figure out what is the best way to manage his cap number. They could just restructure his deal to add multiple void years for cap purposes, which would lower his cap hit. If he plays well again in 2024, then they do need to extend him, though the price is likely to go up.
Either way, there's going to be risk involved with any decision about Tagovailoa. My belief is the Dolphins need to say "screw what others think, we drafted him and we believe in him," then go forward with an extension for 2024.
All these moves (aside from Howard) would give the Dolphins enough space to keep a couple of their pending free agents. If the Dolphins do reach the Super Bowl, they could consider a couple more contract restructures to give them more space to keep additional free agents.
Next time, we'll look another team with Super Bowl aspirations this season: the San Francisco 49ers.