NFL 2023 Season Predictions
Taking a guess about how the teams will finish in 2023 and who wins the Super Bowl this time.
As Adam Schefter noted on Sunday, Sept. 3, in a post on The Site Formerly Known as Twitter, this will be the last Sunday without NFL football for the year.
As I did about a year ago, I went to Playoff Predictors to put together my predictions for the upcoming NFL season. I did this by picking who I thought would be the winner of each week's matchup, then went from there to put together playoff picks.
Last year, I projected that the Buffalo Bills would win their first Super Bowl by beating the Green Bay Packers. Instead, the Kansas City Chiefs took another step toward a dynasty for the 2020s while the Philadelphia Eagles came close to spoiling that. Meanwhile, for the Bills it was a case of "just wait until next year" while the Packers didn't even make the playoffs.
So let's see if I do any better in projecting the 2023 NFL season.
AFC East
Buffalo 13-4 *
Miami 10-7
New England 7-10
NY Jets 7-10
I still believe the Bills are the best team in the division, though the Dolphins will make things interesting. However, I am not sold that Aaron Rodgers is going to fix everything with the Jets and I suspect that, if the Jets miss the playoffs, a regime change is coming. Meanwhile, the Patriots are just kind of there and, while I don't see them making a head coaching change, if they fail to make the playoffs, it will be the second straight year they've missed out. Therefore, if they don't make it, some people are going to have to do the unthinkable and ask how much longer Bill Belichick should get.
AFC North
Baltimore 14-3 *
Cincinnati 12-5 *
Pittsburgh 11-6 *
Cleveland 7-10
The Ravens missed Lamar Jackson for multiple games but still made the playoffs. They are, in my opinion, the best team in the division when a healthy Jackson is at quarterback. The Bengals will still make things interesting and I do think the Steelers could surprise some people. As for the Browns, they are another team in which I could see changes happening if they fail to make the playoffs.
AFC South
Jacksonville 13-4 *
Houston 6-11
Indianapolis 5-12
Tennessee 4-13
The Jaguars are the best team in the division and I think they will take more steps toward becoming a potential Super Bowl contender this season. The Texans and Colts are both rebuilding this year while the Titans are in decline. Given that the Titans may a general manager change last season, I'm not convinced they'll make a head coaching change this season. It does appear the Titans are at least a little honest that they need to rebuild, but think Mike Vrabel can be part of it.
AFC West
Kansas City 15-2 *
Denver 11-6 *
LA Chargers 9-8
Las Vegas 4-13
The Chiefs are the best team in the AFC West and the only games I had them losing are outside the division. I did pick the Broncos to finish second last year, so call me a homer for doing it again. But while I was skeptical about the Sean Payton hire, he's doing some things that have me cautiously optimistic about the season. The Chargers will do enough for a winning record, while I don't understand what the Raiders are doing.
NFC East
Philadelphia 13-4 *
Dallas 12-5 *
NY Giants 9-8
Washington 2-15
As long as the Eagles and Cowboys keep their key players healthy, they should be the two best teams in this division. I think the Giants take a step back in terms of win-loss record, though they should remain a competitive team. The only thing that concerns me about the Giants is Daniel Jones, who I just don't see as a quarterback you can build around. The Commanders are a team that I'm not convinced is in a position to challenge others and, while I like Ron Rivera, I'm betting on a head coaching change after the season.
NFC North
Chicago 9-8 *
Minnesota 8-9
Detroit 8-9
Green Bay 5-12
While I don't see the Bears getting a lot of wins this season, I do see them as a team that takes the next step after a clear rebuild last year. If things go well for them, 2024 is more likely to be the year they get double-digit wins and make a deep playoff run. The Vikings aren't likely to get as fortunate with the breaks they got last season, but some of the moves they have made indicate they are thinking about life after Kirk Cousins. As for the Lions, I don't think Dan Campbell is a bad head coach but I'm not sure how much more he can get out of Jared Goff. The Packers are in a rebuild, though I suspect they don't make changes this offseason because everyone in the building realizes they are in a rebuild.
NFC South
New Orleans 11-6 *
Atlanta 9-8
Carolina 5-12
Tampa Bay 4-13
Perhaps I'm overrating the Saints a bit, but Derek Carr should make them a better football team. The Falcons are a team with talent but seem to be lacking the quarterback that can put them over the top. The Panthers, of course, are in a rebuild and the Buccaneers are about to do that. I see the Bucs as a team that tries to unload a veteran or two during the season to stockpile draft capital, then officially re-set in 2024. What that means for Todd Bowles, though, is anyone's guess.
NFC West
San Francisco 13-4 *
Seattle 10-7 *
LA Rams 5-12
Arizona 1-16
Again, I might be bullish on the Niners and Seahawks, but even after the failed trade up the board to draft Trey Lance, the Niners still have a good thing going. I underestimated Pete Carroll last season and I suspect he'll find ways to keep the Seahawks in the playoff hunt. With the Rams, there's talk that Sean McVay could step away by his choice. It's not that I don't think his heart is into it this season, but that uncertainty about his future could come into play. The Cardinals, meanwhile, were a team I was this close to declaring would go 0-17, but they will likely do enough to win at least one game. But I do expect the Cardinals will finish with the No. 1 overall draft pick for 2024.
Wild Card Week
AFC
Jaguars over Bengals
Bills over Broncos
Ravens over Steelers
NFC
Cowboys over Bears
Seahawks over Saints
Niners over Giants
Divisional Week
AFC: Bills over Ravens, Chiefs over Jaguars
NFC: Niners over Cowboys, Eagles over Seahawks
AFC Championship: Bills over Chiefs
NFC Championship: Niners over Eagles
Super Bowl: Bills over Niners
Maybe I'm a fool for declaring "wait, this time for sure" when it comes to the Bills winning their first-ever Vince Lombardi trophy. I'm taking the chance that it will happen, but if it doesn't, this may be the last time I do so. I had thought about the Chiefs, but it seems to me that, while the Chiefs are a good bet for a 2020s dynasty, it's more likely it comes with Super Bowl wins spread out, rather than consecutive. Meanwhile, I think things go better for the Niners this time around and we witness Brock Purdy starting his first Super Bowl.