NFL 2024 Season Predictions
One man's guess about how the NFL teams will fare.
The 2024 NFL season officially starts Thursday night, so it's that time of year again -- time for NFL season predictions.
As in past years, I used the NFL Playoff Predictor website to pick the outcomes of the games each week, which then determined my predicted order of finish and records for each team.
I'll include some comments about each of the teams and what influenced my thinking when I made my picks. I will note that there will always be the things that nobody can predict, such as injury luck or when the breaks simply don't go a team's way, but there are observations one can make about a team going into the season that can influence how one picks a game outcome before the season starts.
Note: Any numbers listed in parentheses are what seed the teams will be for the playoffs.
AFC East
Bills 13-4 (3)
Dolphins 12-5 (5)
Jets 7-10
Patriots 3-14
I have the Bills edging out the Dolphins for two reasons. First, I think the Bills are going to be similar to last year, in that they don't start well but get better as the season progresses. Last year, it may have been about the switch in offensive coordinators, but this year, it may be more about younger players getting up to speed. Second, while I don't think Tyreek Hill will suddenly decline, he is likely to regress to the mean. In other words, I don't think Hill is going to be on a record-setting campaign this year. I think the Jets are overrated and I have doubts that Aaron Rodgers will be in top form after his Achilles injury, plus the Jets' offensive line isn't good. The Patriots are rebuilding but I could see them upsetting a couple of teams along the way.
AFC North
Ravens 13-4 (2)
Bengals 11-6 (6)
Steelers 9-8
Browns 8-9
While I have the Ravens winning the division, I can see the arguments for the Bengals winning the division. They had a lot of bad luck with injuries last year and it's not likely that will repeat. Still, I think the Ravens have enough talent to hold off the Bengals for the division. The Steelers and Browns are both well-coached teams but I have my doubts about their quarterback situations. It's true they had those issues last year, but they face a different schedule and, with my expectation that the Bengals play better, I think the Steelers and Browns are less likely to win some of the closer games they play.
AFC South
Colts 11-6 (4)
Texans 10-7 (7)
Jaguars 6-11
Titans 2-15
I like the direction the Colts are going and I am bullish on Anthony Richardson. The Texans, meanwhile, won't have a "last place" schedule this year. They have to play the Chiefs and Ravens while the Colts don't and I don't see the Texans winning both of those games. With the way I have the Jaguars finishing, I'm wondering if they could make some change in coaching or the front office after the season. The Titans are another rebuilding team and I'm not confident that Will Levis will have a breakout year.
AFC West
Chiefs 14-3 (1)
Chargers 9-8
Broncos 7-10
Raiders 5-12
There's nobody in this division I see beating the Chiefs for the AFC West crown, but it's possible one of the teams could steal a win from the Chiefs. What's made the Chiefs a strong team is the defense and, while they do have issues with the secondary, their pass rush should be good again. The Chargers are rebuilding even if they have their quarterback in place. Their offensive line is good but they are lacking at the skill positions and their defense isn't where it needs to be. I don't think the Broncos are a five-win team but they aren't going to the playoffs this year. They might be a team that steals a win from the Chiefs, but that depends on whether the Chiefs rest their starters in the final week of the season, when the Chiefs and Broncos play each other for the second time. The Raiders had a solid season last year but I'm not certain if they can repeat that success.
NFC East
Cowboys 12-5 (3)
Eagles 10-7 (miss playoffs)
Commanders 5-12
Giants 3-14
I think the Cowboys will do enough to repeat as NFC East champions, and if so, that should settle Mike McCarthy's future with the team. I know people speculate that Jerry Jones might fire guys if they don't do well in the playoffs, but Jones has shown he'll make a coaching change only if the Cowboys miss the playoffs and can't attribute it to bad luck with injuries. I have the Eagles missing the playoffs despite a 10-7 record and the question is whether that leads to changes or not. The Commanders are a team that could do better than some expect. I do wonder if the Giants' front office and coaching staff are on notice, though that may depend on how much ownership pushed for them to extend Daniel Jones back in 2023.
NFC North
Packers 13-4 (1)
Lions 13-4 (5)
Bears 9-8
Vikings 2-15
The Packers and Lions are both well-coached teams, so I expect them to make the playoffs again. The tiebreakers went the Packers' way in my scenario but the Lions could just as easily win the division. And while I have the Bears at 9-8, there could easily be a game or two that they win and get themselves into the playoffs. Though I have the Vikings in the running for a top-five draft pick, I don't think it leads to a coaching change. After the season-ending injury to JJ McCarthy, I believe Kevin O'Connell will get a pass unless the Vikings get blown out often.
NFC South
Buccaneers 10-7 (4)
Falcons 10-7 (6)
Saints 9-8
Panthers 2-15
All four NFC South teams are seriously flawed. Perhaps I overrated the Buccaneers, who no longer have Dave Canales as offensive coordinator, but I think Todd Bowles does better as a head coach than people give him credit. The Falcons should do enough to make the playoffs but the question is how good will Kirk Cousins be and, if he doesn't play well, how soon the Falcons turn to Michael Penix Jr. The Saints really need to start a rebuild but they seem to do enough to convince ownership that they just need more time. I might be too pessimistic about the Panthers but when you have an owner that is meddling too much in team affairs, it's hard not to see that team as one who isn't going to do well.
NFC West
Niners 12-5 (2)
Rams 10-7 (7)
Cardinals 6-11
Seahawks 6-11
I see the Niners as the division favorite because they have more pieces in place than the Rams do. It will be interesting to see what the Niners do with Brock Purdy next year because they'll have to figure out how much he is worth in an extension. The Rams losing Aaron Donald is pretty significant. I think the offense will be fine but can the defense complement the offense well? I see some improvement coming from the Cardinals now that Kyler Murray is healthy and the Seahawks regressing because they have a new coaching staff. How good is Geno Smith going to be with the changes on the staff?
As for the playoffs, I offer no specific predictions at this time but with the way I projected seeding to fall, it won't surprise me if the Chiefs are in position for the first three-peat as Super Bowl winners.