NFL Free Agency: What I Expected Versus What Actually Happened
How good was your Substack author at projecting how teams would behave and what the 2025 NFL free agent market would look like?
Going into the 2025 NFL offseason, I didn't find the free agent field to be the most appealing overall. Yet, as is often the case, NFl teams don't see it the same way -- at least, when it comes to how they approach free agency.
I wanted to go back and look at some of the things I wrote about the free agent field and which teams I expected to be aggressive and which teams I expected would have to make some tough decisions. My purpose here was to find out if what I thought about free agency matched what teams thought.
While I won't go into every single observation I made, I will go into a few of them, comparing what I expected was going to happen and then look at what actually happened. We'll see where I got it right, where I got it wrong and then figure out what I might have missed.
Let's start by referring you to three previous articles I wrote:
* What I expected in free agency on offense.
* What I expected in free agency on defense.
Now let's look at what I wrote and compare to how things actually worked out.
Playoff teams I said could be aggressive: Commanders, Chargers, Vikings.
Playoff teams I said had decisions to make: Bills, Chiefs, Texans
What actually happened: The Vikings have, indeed, been aggressive in free agency, having spent more than $245M, whether in re-signing their own free agents or adding others. There's been talk about the Vikings adding Aaron Rodgers, though I suspect this is more about pundits wanting to see that happen than it is about the Vikings' own interest.
However, while the Vikings have spent the most money of any team, they haven't signed the most players among playoff teams. The Chargers and Commanders are tied with 12 free agent signings, whether extending their own or adding players from other teams. The Commanders, though, have spent more than $110M while the Chargers have spent just a little more than $87M. With the Chargers, they've been aggressive in terms of total players, but not in terms of money spent.
Meanwhile, the Bills, Texans and Chiefs have been active in free agency. They all had to make cuts or trades, but in the process, they still went out and added players. It was the Chiefs, though, that spent the most money among them (nearly $132M) while the Bills and Texans were more about the number of players added (both with 10) than about money spent ($87M for the Bills, $46M for the Texans).
When it came to money spent, the Broncos and Rams were the playoff teams who spent the most money behind the Vikings (Broncos at $170M, Rams at $156M). The Broncos added more players (nine) than the Rams (six), so the Broncos might be called aggressive, while the Rams would only be aggressive in terms of cash spent.
Non-playoff teams I said could be aggressive: Patriots, Raiders, Bears
Non-playoff teams I said had decision to make: Panthers, Colts, Cowboys
What actually happened: As I expected, the Patriots were aggressive, spending more money than any other non-playoff team with $238.5M. After that, in terms of money, came the Giants at $192M and the Seahawks at $191.5M, though with the Seahawks, that's mostly because of the signing of Sam Darnold. In terms of players, the Giants added the most with 11, the Patriots added eight and the Seahawks added six.
The Bears were active but not aggressive, with six players and $140M spent, but did make a couple of trades. The Raiders, though, were quiet aside from their trade for Geno Smith.
But the Panthers were aggressive in free agency — they did make multiple moves to get under the cap, but turned around and made 15 free agency moves, spending $177.5M in the process.
The Cowboys made 10 free agent moves but didn't spend a lot ($118M) while the Colts added six players at $137M. Both teams could be called active, though not aggressive.
Summary of what I said about offense: I observed that it wasn't a strong free agent field with the exception of offensive tackle.
What actually happened: When it came to quarterbacks, we did see Josh Allen sign a massive extension, but that was more about the Bills tearing up his old contract and giving him a new one. When it came to actual unrestricted or street free agents, though, it was closer to what I observed about bridge QBs.
Sam Darnold got paid about what I expected him to get. Justin Fields got more than I thought but his contract is in line with that of a bridge QB. Others got typical backup QB deals.
At running back, it's been quiet, as I expected. At wide receiver, there was action when it came to the trade market (DK Metcalf and Deebo Samuel) more than it came to actual free agency. At tight end, there's been some action but nothing that resulted in a market shakeup.
Finally, there's offensive line. At offensive tackle, the biggest moves were about teams re-signing their own, though the Laremy Tunsil trade was notable. At offensive guard, there were trades that went down but, so far, nothing that's shook up the market. The same held true at center.
We're still waiting the decision of Aaron Rodgers as of this writing and his decision will affect what Russell Wilson does. But on offense, the market didn't go crazy.
Summary of what I said about defense: I believed interior defensive linemen would mostly go to the second tier, edge rushers would have activity, the linebacker market might go crazy, the cornerback market might have activity and the safety market might have it, too.
What actually happened: Let's start with linebacker, in which the market did get crazy, but that was based more on those who re-signed with their current teams. Other linebackers got paid well, but not quite as well as Zack Baun, Nick Bolton and Jamien Sherwood.
At interior defensive line, though, while the majority did sign second-tier deals, there were a few that would raise eyebrows. Milton Williams certainly leads the way, getting paid at the top of the market. Javon Kinlaw, a street free agent, got a better deal from the Commanders than he did with his former team, the Jets. Tershawn Wharton got paid more than I expected and Jonathan Allen, another street free agent, wasn't far off from his previous deal.
At edge rusher, the big move was Maxx Crosby's extension, while the actual free agent market saw some second-tier deals but nobody who really moved the market.
At safety, though, multiple players got paid toward the top of the market, while at cornerback, there were plenty who approached the top of the market, though it was Jaycee Horn who re-set it with his extension.
For the most part, I was on target, but I was off the mark a bit when it came to interior defenders. And in some instances of the market going crazy, it was more about teams keeping their own players, with a handful of cases of players signing with other teams (Milton Williams in particular).
Free agency has cooled down quite a bit now, so next week, I'll take a look at every team, consider their overall approach to the free agency period and what it may mean for their season outlook.