NFL: Looking Ahead to 2023
While analysts and fans are focused on 2022, teams have to keep one eye on the future, too. Where may things stand with NFL teams next year?
It's been an eventful offseason, with the majority of NFL teams making moves with the hopes of getting back to the playoffs or, in some cases, the Super Bowl, while others seem more content to build toward 2023.
Regardless of which approach a team took, most analysts spend their time focused on the upcoming season, not what may lie ahead. It's understandable, because while analysts may have good insight into how good teams really are, they can't predict everything that will happen.
However, for a team to have success over the long term, those building the rosters need to have one eye toward the future as much as having one eye upon the present. That includes keeping an eye on their salary cap flexibility in the future and what they may need to do if things don't go according to plan for the present.
As we get closer to training camp, let's look at the 32 NFL teams, their future situation as it stands at this time and what it means if things turn out differently than expected in 2022.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: The Bills have gone "all in" on getting that Super Bowl win, as evidenced by their massive commitment to Von Miller. However, they don't have much wiggle room under the cap right now, meaning if they don't get to the Super Bowl win, they'll need to take a step back. Tremaine Edmunds and Dawson Knox enter the final year of their contracts and the Bills will have to ask how important it is to keep them. An extension for Ed Oliver could clear some cap space, but how important is it to keep him around?
Miami Dolphins: The 2022 season is clearly the "make or break" season for Tua Tagovailoa — if he doesn't get it together this season, the Dolphins will have to figure out what comes next at the quarterback position. They will also need to think about an extension for Christian Wilkins, which would lower his cap number. The other issue to address is Mike Gesicki, who will play under the franchise tag this season. The Dolphins' direction for 2023 will depend a lot on Tagovailoa's performance and whether or not the Dolphins reach the playoffs.
New England Patriots: After being aggressive in free agency in 2021, the Patriots returned to the playoffs but still weren't at the level they were under Tom Brady. They didn't have the cap space to be active in free agency this year, but will have more space in 2023 and will be in position to get out of the 2021 deals that didn't work out. The Patriots' pending free agents aren't priorities to retain, but it begs the question about whether or not it will be a good idea to be aggressive in free agency again. Much will likely depend on how Mac Jones progresses in his second season.
New York Jets: Though they aren't flush with cap space in 2023 at this point, they will be able to release players such as CJ Mosley, Carl Lawson, Corey Davis and John Franklin-Myers if the Jets don't believe they will be valuable for 2023. They are a team that would likely want to take the next step toward playoff contention this season, but expecting a turnaround like the Bengals had in 2021 may be expecting too much. Two questions they'll want to get answered this season are whether Zach Wilson is the guy to build around and how important it is to get Quinnen Williams extended.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: The obvious situation involves Lamar Jackson. The good news is that the Ravens will have cap flexibility to put the franchise tag on him while they figure out a contract, should it come to that point. The Ravens' situation may be comparable to the Cowboys, in that they have a quarterback who isn't in the top five, but are a better team when their quarterback is in the lineup. Even if they do have to tag Jackson, they will have enough space to add free agents.
Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals may be without Jessie Bates III this season after he didn't sign the franchise tag and the Bengals failed to get a new contract done. They now have to ask how important it is to retain him for 2023, assuming he doesn't play at all in 2022 or that they don't trade his rights away. Otherwise, they'll have the cap space in 2023 to make moves as necessary, though they will reach the point that a contract extension for Joe Burrow will enter the discussion.
Cleveland Browns: After trading away Baker Mayfield and getting just a 2024 conditional pick, the Browns now much watch how things unfold in 2022. If they don't make the playoffs, it won't surprise me if they clean house. Though they will likely have considerable cap carryover to mitigate their 2023 cap situation, they may still go a different direction if their trade for DeShaun Watson doesn't pan out as expected.
Pittsburgh Steelers: They seem to be approaching 2022 like they still have a shot at the playoffs. If they don't make it, they will be in a good position cap wise, meaning they won't have to restructure deals like they did a couple of seasons ago. And while they won't have to clear out the roster for 2023, their 2022 performance may influence their decisions about players such as Diontae Johnson and Devin Bush, who will be free agents.
AFC South
Houston Texans: Here is a team that is still rebuilding, though it's anyone's guess as to what their plan is. Cap space won't be an issue for them in 2023, nor will the lack of draft capital. They won't have free agents they must retain and they can even cut some players if they want. However, they need to figure out a clear direction for the franchise, from their coaching situation to who is the quarterback they can build around.
Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are acting like a team that is treading water, though they aren't leveraging their long-term cap position to do so. They should have enough cap flexibility through cutting players who aren't needed and, thus, be able to explore free agency. Their biggest decision may be an extension for Quentin Nelson, who could re-set the market for guards given his status as a top 10 draft pick. The other question they must ask is how much longer they can keep moving forward with Matt Ryan at quarterback.
Jacksonville Jaguars: After the spending spree in 2022 free agency, the Jaguars could find themselves over the cap in 2023, even after accounting for 2022 carryover. They could cut a couple of players, but if they don't make the playoffs in 2022, they have to be careful about restructuring other players with the idea they can go on another spending spree in free agency. They will have a decision to make about right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who will be a free agent.
Tennessee Titans: It was hard to figure out the Titans' strategy for 2022, in which they acted at first like their playoff window was still wide open, then acted like a team that needed to reassess its position. But if they don't make the playoffs this year, it will be time to re-set. They could cut Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and Robert Woods if they want — and those moves arguably should happen if they don't make the playoffs.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Though they are projected to be tight against the cap, they will be able to free space by moving on from Graham Glasgow and Mike Purcell (the latter who could be cut after training camp). They will have decisions to make regarding Bradley Chubb, Dalton Risner and Dre'Mont Jones, meaning they may not be able to be aggressive in free agency. There is also the fact they'll have to look at a contract extension for Russell Wilson. The Broncos do have high hopes that they'll make the playoffs in 2022, but regardless of what happens, they must be careful not to restructure deals just so they can chase after more free agents.
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs did take a step back to reassess this offseason after not reaching the Super Bowl. However, they didn't get an extension done with Orlando Brown and he might not play at all this season after he didn't sign his franchise tag. The Chiefs still have playoff hopes for 2022, but if they come up short of the Super Bowl again, they will need to re-tool the roster. Cutting Frank Clark is a likely option. They might have to ask how much longer they can keep Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. And they'll have to figure out whether or not the likes of Juan Thornhill and Mecole Hardman Jr. have a future with the team.
Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders are in the first year of a new regime, so it's not likely they'll change course from the two-year window they seem to have built the roster for. In other words, don't expect a lot of cuts in 2022 if they don't make the playoffs. The good news is the Raiders don't have any free agents who are priorities to retain. They will likely stick with Derek Carr for 2023 and their biggest extension decision will be Darren Waller, who might want to get a larger payday before he enters his decline years.
Los Angeles Chargers: If they make the playoffs in 2022, the Chargers might think about some restructures so they can make an "all in" move for that final push to the Super Bowl. However, if things don't go as expected, they'll be in a tough situation. It's one thing to restructure deals so you can go from a playoff team to a Super Bowl team; it's another when you are just trying for that No. 7 playoff seed. Their roster decisions will include Joey Bosa (extend him or not), Khalil Mack (see Bosa), Derwin James (franchise tag and record-setting contract likely coming) and Justin Herbert (extend him in 2023 or wait another year).
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys will likely have plenty of cap carryover for 2022, which could mitigate any such cap issues for 2023. The one player to keep an eye on is Ezekiel Elliott, whose guaranteed money will run out. Chances are he'll be cut, possibly with the post-June 1 designation to allow the Cowboys to sign their draft picks. They have had left tackle Tyron Smith on a team-friendly deal, but he's entering the final year of that deal. Is he worth an extension?
New York Giants: The team seems to be more focused on playing for 2023 than 2022. They will certainly be in position to be aggressive in free agency in 2023 and can even get out of deals for certain players. Leonard Williams could be either cut or traded. The main thing the Giants will need to figure out is how to address the quarterback position, but they'll have the resources to do so.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have generally been good at watching their roster and not risking too much over the long term. But they are entering the "make or break" season for Jalen Hurts. They built the roster for him to succeed, but if he doesn't improve, they'll have to step back and re-assess. The Eagles can't afford to fall into the trap of chasing after the No. 7 playoff seed year after year.
Washington Commanders: If the Commanders don't make the playoffs in 2022, they are likely to clean house. Though they aren't projected to have a lot of cap space, they are in a position to cut some players if necessary. Carson Wentz can be safely cut if things don't go well in 2022. If they do start over, the Commanders must focus more on releasing players that are not part of the long-term picture, rather than restructure existing contracts.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: They are a team that is playing for 2023, which may not sit well with fans of Justin Fields. However, they will be in a better cap situation next year and will still be able to take advantage of his inexpensive rookie contract. The Bears will also have more draft capital available, giving them a better chance to find players to fill out the roster. Their only free agent that is a priority to retain is Roquan Smith. It's true it could be a rough outing for the Bears in 2022, but they have the chance to be a better team in 2023 if they make good decisions in the future.
Detroit Lions: They are in year two of their rebuild but still don't have the quarterback situation settled. While Jared Goff isn't a bad player, he isn't the long-term answer, either. However, they will be able to cut him in 2023 if necessary and might make other cuts, too. If DJ Chark plays well in 2023, he's a franchise tag candidate. The biggest decision the Lions need to make is figuring out who is the long-term guy at QB, which may come via the draft.
Green Bay Packers: Their cap situation isn't good in 2023, but they at least don't have any free agents they must retain. While I would expect they'll win the division this year, they have to ask how much longer their playoff window will really last. That means they must be careful with restructures and not assume they are that close to a Super Bowl win. It's possible they discuss an extension for Rashan Gary, which could help their cap situation a bit.
Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings have to be careful not to be one of those teams who keeps chasing the No. 7 playoff seed. If they fail to make the playoffs this year, they have to stop extending Kirk Cousins and find other ways to alleviate the cap situation. There may not be better QB options out there, but they don't want to tie themselves down to Cousins for too long, because he's not the type of QB to carry a team into the playoffs year after year.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: This is another team that seems more focused on 2023, particularly after they failed to acquire DeShaun Watson. They will be in a better cap position in 2023, though, so it might make sense to be more aggressive in free agency. They can certainly look at an extension for AJ Terrell, but they need to be careful doing extensions for older players on the roster. Of course, they need to get the QB situation settled.
Carolina Panthers: The trade for Baker Mayfield hasn't made their long-term future any clearer. Even with cap carryover, they are likely to be over the cap. As for 2022, they don't look like anything better than a team that might get the No. 7 playoff seed. It's hard not to view this team as one that will clean house after 2022, meaning there could be several players cut, just so they can get out of deals and figure out a new direction.
New Orleans Saints: They are going to be over the cap again next year and really need to ask themselves how much longer it's worth chasing after the No. 7 playoff seed. If they don't make the playoffs in 2022, it's time to clean house. Trading away players for draft capital may be the best thing to do if they miss the playoffs this year, because cutting players won't be enough to help their situation. If they make the playoffs in 2022, they still need to watch the restructures.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Everything depends on what Tom Brady decides to do in 2023. If he decides it's time to retire for good, the Buccaneers could do still try things out with Kyle Trask and get a good idea about whether or not they can succeed with him as quarterback. If Brady returns in 2023, it won't be surprising to see the Bucs keep as many players as possible. But if Brady calls it a career, they do need to reassess their position, particularly because they will be over the cap. They will need to decide if they should extend Devin White.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: They will have plenty of cap space in 2023, but many of their free agents are aging players. Given that an extension for Kyler Murray will be in the works, the Cardinals must ask themselves who is really best to retain for the long term. Along with Murray, they could be looking at an extension for Marquise Brown. And while keeping Murray is one thing, the Cardinals are another team who must be careful not to act like a team that is simply chasing the No. 7 playoff seed.
Los Angeles Rams: If they win another Super Bowl, they can approach things with the idea of going for a three-peat. If not, they will have to be careful what they do next. They don't want to restructure too many players and make it too difficult to get out of deals that don't work out. The Rams have generally been smart about moving on quickly from players that don't work out, even if they go through short-term cap pain. They just need to remember not to put themselves into a position in which they can't get out of such deals.
San Francisco 49ers: In all likelihood, the Trey Lance era will start in 2022, so if things work out with him, they'll have a QB on a cheap rookie contract. However, there are some key decisions that await the Niners. Deebo Samuel gets talked up a lot, but they also have to figure out an extension for Nick Bosa and might do the same for Mike McGlinchey. That could eat up the bulk of their cap space and make it more difficult to acquire other free agents.
Seattle Seahawks: Here's another team in which it's hard to figure out the direction they think they are going in 2022. They strike me more as a team that is playing for 2023, but that may mean a new regime will take over. The Seahawks will have a lot of cap space, but between an extension for DK Metcalf and what to do at the quarterback position, they are a team that will likely enter a clear rebuild next season.