NFL Midseason Trade Talk
A couple of midseason trades have already happened. Who are the teams that might be prepared to move other players?
As the NFL season enters its fifth week, we have a better idea about which teams are the likely top playoff contenders and which teams are likely out of the running.
For both groups, the talk about midseason trades takes place. The former gets talked up about which players to acquire for a Super Bowl run and the latter gets discussed about which players to unload for future draft capital.
We've already seen three trades go down this past week, but these three were about teams deciding to move on from previously acquired players. The Bears sent wide receiver Chase Claypool to the Dolphins, the Chargers sent cornerback J.C. Jackson to the Patriots and the Broncos sent edge rusher Randy Gregory to the 49ers (and the Broncos were prepared to cut Gregory if a trade wasn't completed).
In all of these situations, the team that traded the player wanted to move on from a player the team didn't want any longer. For the Bears, this was about a player they acquired in a trade last season (they sent a second-round pick to the Steelers). For the Chargers and Broncos, this was about a free agent signing more than a year ago.
But in each situation, the moves involved a player who a team acquired at significant cost, then dealt to another team for what amounted to a draft pick swap, in which the team who dealt the player moved up a round while the team acquiring the player moved down a round.
When we think about midseason trades, we may be more inclined to think about a player dealt during the season for significant draft compensation.
For example, the Broncos sent edge rusher Bradley Chubb to the Dolphins during the 2022 season for first- and fourth-round picks in 2023, plus running back Chase Edmonds, and sent back a 2025 fifth rounder.
There was also the trade for Christian McCaffrey, in which the Niners sent second, third and fourth-round picks in 2023 and a fifth in 2024 to the Panthers.
And back in 2019, the Jaguars sent cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the Rams for two first-round picks and a fourth rounder. Two years later, the Rams sent 2022 second- and third-round picks to the Broncos for Von Miller (with the Broncos paying the bulk of Miller's salary).
All of these midseason trades made headlines, but trades involving top names for high draft picks tend to make us believe it's easy to wheel and deal.
The reality is that, if a team decides to rebuild, it's not going to be able to unload every player it no longer wants and get high draft capital in return.
First of all, there has to be a team who really wants to trade. We have seen that the Niners, Rams and Dolphins have been willing to do that, but other teams have been less inclined. However, a team that has lot a significant player to injury may be more inclined to talk about a trade.
Second, there's the question of trade negotiations. Front office people who are tough negotiators might get more in return than others -- or they might be unable to complete a trade because they are too tough in said negotiations. However, if a team has the mindset of "get rid of the player," it will be harder for the team to get high draft picks in return.
Third, there's the question about the player involved. Players on rookie contracts are desirable because they are a cheap investment. A veteran with an expiring contract might make sense if the acquiring team sees the player as the final piece for a Super Bowl push, but knows it can allow the player to depart if things don't work out.
The past week shows how this works. The three teams in question wanted to move on from the players. Two teams who have been active in midseason trades came forward, with the third (the Patriots) having lost a key player to injury. And, in each case, the team dealing the players didn't get much in return.
Whether or not we see a high profile trade along the lines of McCaffrey and Chubb remains to be seen. But there are a few players who might come on the radar. A quick check of those teams whose playoff hopes are diminishing and have players who might be moved.
* Carolina Panthers: As of this writing, the Panthers are the only team in the NFL that has yet to win a game. They have no 2024 first-round pick and, while they like quarterback Brian Young, they don't have enough playmakers on offense. However, instead of trying to acquire a wide receiver, they would be better off acquiring draft capital in 2024 for more chances to draft playmakers.
Brian Burns and Jeremy Chinn both have expiring contracts. Burns is a player the Panthers are likely to want to keep. However, keeping Burns and Chinn may not be possible. Chinn comes on a cheap salary and could command a significant draft pick for a team that needs an edge rusher.
* Chicago Bears: The Claypool trade was about moving a player the Bears no longer wanted. The Bears are in a better situation when it comes to draft capital -- after all, they own the Panthers 2024 first-round pick.
Looking over the roster, the Bears don't have that many players who have significant trade value. But the one who might get something in return is cornerback Jaylon Johnson. While it's possible the Bears will want to extend him, if indications are he's not interested in staying and another team comes forward with a good offer, the Bears might want to listen.
* Denver Broncos: Though the Broncos are in big need of pass rushers, trading for one doesn't make sense. The Broncos need to look more at acquiring draft capital, not dealing it away. That's particularly true because they have just six draft picks for 2024 and no second-round pick.
Wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy were the subject of trade talks during the offseason. Jeudy has a cheap salary for 2023, though his price will go up when his exercised fifth-year option comes along in 2024. Still, he'll come at a lower cost than other receivers. As for Sutton, he would be more expensive and has two years left on his deal, but there still might be teams interested if they need more offensive playmakers.
* Arizona Cardinals: Prior to the season's start, the Cardinals' actions showed they were at least doing a soft rebuild. Like the Bears, they don't lack draft capital, having acquired a first-round pick from the Texans.
While Kyler Murray is expected back soon, the question is how much you believe he will take the Cardinals from being in contention for a top 10 draft pick, to being in contention for the playoffs. Thus, if teams show an interest in wide receiver Marquise Brown, and they are willing to make a good offer, the Cardinals should listen.
* New York Giants: After Brian Daboll got the most out of the roster in 2022, the Giants opted to tag running back Saquon Barkley and extend quarterback Daniel Jones. However, whatever magic Daboll worked in 2022 isn't there now. Barkley is again dealing with injuries and Jones is struggling.
Trading Barkley isn't likely going to happen but the Giants do have a couple of players with expiring contracts who might not be back in 2024. Leonard Williams is playing well but the current Giants regime didn't trade for him. A team in need of a pass rusher might be interested -- and perhaps the Giants can work it out so they get more draft capital in return in exchange for paying some of Williams' salary.
* Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings won the NFC North last year but had a lot of luck on their side when it came to winning games. However, the front office didn't act like the team was just a couple of players away from a Super Bowl. Instead, the Vikings released a couple of players and, when restructuring or renegotiating deals, made sure those deals expired after the season (though they had void years for cap purposes).
Given that the Vikings' behavior shows they are in a rebuild even if some people don't acknowledge it, it makes sense to trade away players for draft capital. Some might bring up wide receiver Justin Jefferson, but he's a player the Vikings are more likely to keep. But edge rusher Danielle Hunter's deal expires after the season and his base salary is low compared to other such players.
* Las Vegas Raiders: After winning their season opener, the Raiders have lost three straight. They don't look the part of a team that is in position for a playoff run.
The Raiders don't have a lot of players they can move. For example, it's not likely they'll be able to move running back Josh Jacobs. Wide receiver Hunter Renfrow hasn't played well this season, but it might not be out of the question to deal him, even if the Raiders might not get much in return.
* Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals entered the season with hopes of a Super Bowl run. However, Joe Burrow's health has been an issue and the Bengals defense looks bad.
The Bengals don't need to do a fire sale but they may want to look at players with expiring contracts who they don't plan to extend. Wide receiver Tee Higgins is reportedly seeking a big contract and may not be worth what he wants. If the Bengals get a good offer for Higgins, they should make a move, rather than just letting him walk and waiting for a future compensatory pick.
* New York Jets: Another team who had playoff hopes entering the season, the Jets lost Aaron Rodgers to an Achilles injury and, while they've made things interesting, it doesn't look like a playoff trip is in the cards.
As with the Bengals, the Jets won't go into fire sale mode. However, they did decline the fifth-year option for offensive tackle Mehki Becton. If they don't believe he can be part of the team's future, and another team is in desperate need of an offensive tackle, the Jets might find a trading partner.