NFL QB Valuation
Which NFL teams are getting the most bang for their buck with their starting quarterback?
No position is more important to an NFL team than the quarterback and, when a team finds a quarterback it can build around, that team will do whatever it can to keep him.
Because of this, veteran starting quarterbacks often get paid more than any other position. Even backup quarterbacks tend to get more money, relative to backups and depth players at other positions. And when a team finds a quality quarterback in the draft, that QB represents great value for the time that QB plays under his cost-controlled draft pick contract.
But when a team pays a lot of money to a quarterback, the team needs to get as much value as possible out of that QB. And when a team select a QB in the first round of the draft, it needs to get a good return because that QB has his four-year contract fully guaranteed.
What teams are getting the most out of their quarterbacks, relative to the contracts they’ve signed? I wanted to look at Over the Cap’s valuation metric to see how it measures QBs in terms of the value teams are getting out of them.
While OTC valuation isn’t a perfect metric, it does give you an idea about the return on the investment teams have made at the position.
I examined the valuation of NFL QBs through the first five games of the season and grouped them into different categories, based on the OTC valuation metric. The QBs are listed by team, APY salary and OTC valuation.
Veterans delivering as expected
Dak Prescott, Cowboys ($60M APY, $46.593M OTCV)
Josh Allen, Bills ($55M APY, $46.749M OTCV)
Jordan Love, Packers ($55M APY, $42.027M OTCV)
Justin Herbert, Chargers ($52.5M APY, $40.39M OTCV)
Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($51M APY, $37.334M OTCV)
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($45M APY, $40.937M OTCV)
Matthew Stafford, Rams ($40M APY, $47.016M OTCV)
Sam Darnold, Seahawks ($33.5M APY, $36.659M OTCV)
Among these quarterback, all but Darnold were signed to deals that indicated the teams believed they were the QBs they could build around for the long term. In the majority of those cases, the teams are getting at least $40M in OTC valuation, so you can say they are delivering as would be expected for a franchise QB.
In one case, Hurts isn’t quite delivering at that level, those his APY salary comes in slightly lower. He is a QB to keep an eye on to see if he can improve his play or he will risk falling out of this category.
Mahomes is an interesting case, in that the Chiefs signed him to a 10-year deal that gave them cost control over the long term. That move continues to pay off as, while the Chiefs have restructured his contract to move more money up front, they haven’t had to negotiate a new extension that would have raised his asking price.
Stafford is a case of a team getting a deal done before too many QBs became eligible for new deals. The result is Stafford looks like a better deal compared to others, given his play this season.
Some might argue Prescott isn’t delivering as expected, but he’s playing at a high level this year. It was always going to be difficult for Prescott to live up to being the highest-paid QB in the NFL, based on APY salary, but he’s playing at a level that might put him in the MVP conversation if the Cowboys do more to show they are a playoff contender.
Veterans delivering great value
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers ($33.3M APY, $44.010M OTCV)
Daniel Jones, Colts ($14M APY, $40.192M OTCV)
The Buccaneers have to be happy with how Mayfield has played. He’s putting together a season that is what one would expect from a top QB. It will be interesting to see how the Bucs handle his situation, given that he will enter the final year of his deal next season.
As for the Colts, they are another team that has to be happy with the veteran QB they signed. Few could have anticipated Jones playing at a high level, but he has thus far. He looks like a QB who should get a deal similar to Sam Darnold if he continues to play well the remainder of the season.
Veterans not delivering as expected
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars ($55M APY, $30.806M OTCV)
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins ($53.1M APY, $22.659M OTCV)
Jared Goff, Lions ($53M APY, $32.999M OTCV)
Kyler Murray, Cardinals ($46.1M APY, $32.694M OTCV)
Geno Smith ($37.5M APY, $26.3M OTCV)
For three of the quarterbacks, they are being paid at a level at which you would expect to get at least $40M in valuation. Lawrence and Goff aren’t playing poorly, but they haven’t hit a higher level this season. They are on teams that are in playoff contention, so perhaps they will improve and do more to justify their pay.
Tagovailoa is a quarterback the Dolphins certainly believed they had to keep, given that they made the playoffs with him two season ago. However, things have not worked out as expected. Not all of it is Tagovailoa’s fault, but for what he can control, he’s not delivering what he should be.
Murray’s APY salary isn’t as high as others but that’s because he’s signed his deal earlier. He’s still the type of QB that needs to deliver at a higher level than he is. Smith signed an extension that paid him more than Darnold but isn’t delivering at that level.
Veterans who are injured
Joe Burrow, Bengals ($55M APY, $3.767M OTCV)
Brock Purdy, Niners ($53M APY, $7.93M OTCV)
Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($52M APY, $19.357M OTCV)
In these cases, this is what happens when you lose your starting quarterback to injury. When the QB has to miss games, you aren’t going to get anything in return.
Would these QBs be able to deliver expected value if they were on the field. It’s possible, though in the case of the Bengals and Ravens, the teams are seriously flawed. The Niners, meanwhile, have overcome some key injuries and are finding ways to win games, so a health Brock Purdy might be able to deliver more on his recent extension.
Low-cost veterans playing like it
Justin Fields, Jets ($20M APY, $22.698M OTCV)
Aaron Rodgers, Steelers ($13.65M APY, $19.948M OTCV)
Russell Wilson, Giants ($10.5M APY, $13.518M OTCV)
In these cases, the teams took a chance on a veteran at a low cost and they’re getting what was expected. Of course, the Giants have benched Russell Wilson but he essentially got paid as a top backup.
The Steelers are having success with Rodgers at QB but it’s clear he’s nearing the end of his careeer. The good thing is they didn’t pay him a lot to bring him on board. The Steelers will need to look for a long-term solution at QB, though.
Fields is a case of the Jets doing what they can. He hasn’t necessarily been bad but he’s limited in terms of what he can do. This is another team that needs to find their long-term solution at QB.
Recently drafted players who are delivering
Caleb Williams, Bears ($9.8M APY, $37.09M OTCV)
Drake Maye, Patriots ($9.1M APY, $38.79M OTCV)
CJ Stroud, Texans ($9.069M APY, $32.54M OTCV)
Michael Penix Jr., Falcons ($5.72M APY, $28.307M OTCV)
Bo Nix, Broncos ($4.6M APY, $30.06M OTCV)
With Williams and Maye, you can see the benefits of having a recently drafted QB on a cost-controlled contract. If they continue to play well, they will be in position to be extended at the top of the market. How much they get remains to be seen, but they could both be in position to exceed Allen’s recent extension.
Stroud is somebody who has a chance to get there as well but could show some improvement to get there. Nix needs to do the same, though he does seem like he can be a good fit for Sean Payton’s offense. As for Penix, he had the fewest starts of any QB drafted in 2024, so his overall sample size is still small. Time will tell how good he can be.
Recently drafted players who are not delivering
Cameron Ward, Titans ($12.2M APY, $22.243M OTCV)
Bryce Young, Panthers ($9.4M APY, $27.386M OTCV)
We have a tale of two drafted QBs here. Ward is a QB still adjusting to the NFL and he’s on a team that’s still in a rebuild phase. He has plenty of time to raise his stock.
Young, though, has entered his third NFL season and needs to show more growth. But at this point, he’s somebody whom the Panthers will have to ask themselves if it’s worth picking up his fifth-year option, a decision they will have to make during the 2026 offseason.
Recently drafted players who are injured
Jayden Daniels, Commanders ($9.4M APY, $17.251M OTCV)
JJ McCarthy, Vikings ($5.4M APY, $3.941M OTCV)
This is another case of two recently drafted QBs with different tales to tell. Daniels had a quality rookie season but needs to get healthy now. He was on a pace similar to Williams and Maye, in that he might push for an extension at the top of the QB market when the time comes for an extension.
McCarthy’s issue is that he has barely seen the field because of injuries. After missing his entire rookie season, and now missing multiple starts his second season, he’s going to need to show a lot once he’s cleared to play.
There are other QBs who I could have looked at but their situations are either easily identified (DeShaun Watson was a disastrous signing, while Anthony Richardson is a failed first-round pick), they have a smaller sample size (Jaxson Dart has just two starts included his valuation) or are clearly backups, even if they’ve done some good things (Mac Jones and Marcus Mariota).
I’ll revisit this topic later in the season. Next week, I’ll look at some other positions to see who is delivering and who isn’t, based on OTC valuation.