NFL Team Building: How Not to Do It
There are ways to properly build an NFL team. But some teams serve as examples of why you shouldn't go "all in, all the time."
There are many different theories about how to build an NFL team. Usually, they are centered around ideas like building through the draft, finding a quarterback or hiring an offensive-minded head coach.
But then there are those who wish to take things further than that. They are the types who think that, if you have those three things, you can do anything you want and guarantee success, or you better take advantage and go "all in, all the time" while you still can. (The latter particularly happens when you have a recently drafted QB on a cheap contract.)
If a team goes overboard with leveraging its salary cap or draft capital, that team can find itself in a bigger hole than it realizes. It's not just about whether a particular QB or head coach works out — it's when you see a prominent QB or head coach move on, or you keep telling yourself you are only this player away from a Super Bowl, that you can run into trouble.
Teams may benefit in the short term from restructuring contracts or dealing away draft capital, but if they do it too often, they have problems in the long term.
And while having an owner with deep pockets may give you the chance to attract more players, it can be blown out of proportion. NFL teams have not shown a willingness to give every single player a contract with every penny fully guaranteed. In reality, an owner with deep pockets just gives you a chance to give a player a bigger signing bonus. Furthermore, there are plenty of examples of teams that like to spend money but have had little to show for it.
If you really want to be good at building an NFL roster, you have to do more than show you can draft the right QB or hire the right head coach. You have to know when to step back and reassess if things don't work out and you have to know when it's time to move on, even if it means dealing with short-term pain.
For those who want to push certain theories about building a team, let's go over three NFL teams who either keep going "all in" or keep kicking the cap can down the road and are now likely to pay a price.
New Orleans Saints
Year in and year out, the Saints have found themselves over the cap and needed to make adjustments. And year in and year out, it's simply been about more and more restructures, while trading away draft capital because they either covet certain players or try to fill immediate needs that way.
Jason Fitzgerald at Over the Cap has pointed out how dangerous this is and why the Saints are in a terrible position going into 2023. Yet some Saints fans keep imploring to him about how the Saints were trying to get back to the playoffs, the NFC isn't that strong, and on it went.
However, if you are trying to rationalize moves because you think your team is a contender for that seventh playoff spot, that's not good rationalization. Nor is it good rationalization if you point out your team is in a weak division.
Instead, you need to actually look at where your team is at and what's really needed to get yourself into a good position. When Drew Brees retired, it should have been time to do at least a soft rebuild, but that is not what happened. And the same thing was true when Sean Payton left.
But that is not what happened. The Saints rationalized that they could fix everything if they traded for DeShaun Watson, but when that didn't happen, they panicked and gave Jameis Winston a multi-year deal. Now they are in a worse position than last year, but hey, maybe they'll win enough games down the stretch to get that No. 7 playoff spot, or maybe somebody will give them draft picks for the right to Payton.
In reality, the Saints — who are now projected to be $54.3M over the cap with just 39 players under contract — need to accept that the time has come to do a full rebuild. Fitzgerald outlined what the Saints could do to at least get by, but that's where the team is at. The Saints serve as a warning about manipulating the cap: It may work out if you do it once, but if it doesn't, don't keep doing it and expect a different result.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have ownership that has no problem spending money. In most years since Shad Khan bought the team, the Jaguars have been the biggest spenders.
This past offseason, they spent $259.5 million on seven players in free agency. They had a lot of cap space, plenty of draft capital and Trevor Lawrence, entering the second year of his inexpensive draft pick contract. Why wouldn't you go in and take advantage?
And yet, here are the Jaguars sitting near the bottom of the rankings again. They may not be finishing with the No. 1 overall pick, but they aren't exactly taking steps toward becoming a playoff contender.
I should note that I did pick the Jaguars to finish first in the AFC South because that's how my game picks went, and because I though Doug Pedersen might do some good things. I got that wrong, though — and more importantly, I got it wrong when I said the Titans were going to take a fall.
But back to the Jaguars — they will enter 2023 projected to be $4.5M over the cap with 40 players under contract. Their spending spree went toward players who were mostly Tier Two or Tier Three types who haven't all lived up to the deals they signed.
The Jaguars are the perfect example of how spending more money doesn't translate to success. They are likely going to cut a few players to clear cap space, but if they want to retain pending free agents, they might have to do restructures to make room -- and that could be a problem when they haven't established themselves as a playoff contender.
Cleveland Browns
Ever since Jimmy Haslam bought the Browns, they've had a revolving door on the front office. Year in and year out, general managers are brought in to bring a different philosophy, only to be gone after a year or two, with the Browns in no better of a position than they were before.
They've shifted over to a supposed analytics strategy but didn't seem to have a coherent plan for building through the draft or how to best utilize free agency.
More recently, they made a blockbuster trade for DeShaun Watson, made possible through giving him a five-year, fully guaranteed contract. Publicly, Haslam told people it was the front office's decision. Realistically, though, there is no way any player gets that lucrative of a contract without the owner's blessing, even if it was the front office's decision to pursue the player.
The Browns do have a good head coach in Kevin Stefanski, and where the Browns would be now if Watson wasn't serving a suspension is anyone's guess. However, set Watson and his off-field issues aside and you have a team that has just $4.8M in projected cap space with 43 players under contract and several pending free agents. Among those free agents are players with void years in their deals, meaning the Browns take a dead money charge for the player even if he signs elsewhere.
The Browns need to figure out a coherent strategy if they want to take that next step. It might mean having to restructure Watson's contract to gain cap space, but that may depend on what moves other teams make with their QBs. More importantly, the Browns need to ask themselves if it's worth doing other restructures or to keep using void years when they haven't proven themselves as a consistent playoff contender.
Then there are a few teams that have generally made the right moves in recent years but will have to watch themselves going into 2023. Among them:
* Tampa Bay Buccaneers: They're projected to be $42.7M above the cap with just 39 players under contract. If Tom Brady hangs it up for good, they need to immediately go into the soft rebuild approach rather than go for another quick fix.
* Tennessee Titans: Yes, here comes the part in which I ask just how much longer the Titans can keep this up. They are projected to be $14.8M above the cap with 41 players under contract. While they remain atop the AFC South, they have to ask themselves if it's wise to act like they are just a player or two away from a Super Bowl.
* Los Angeles Chargers: They are running out of years in which Justin Herbert will be on a cheap contract and may have to do what some Chargers fans don't want -- part ways with certain veterans. If the Chargers play their hand in the right way, they cut at least a couple of veterans and pave the way for a youth movement, in preparation for the coming years in which Herbert will get paid well.