Offseason Outlook for NFL Playoff Teams: AFC
Let's look at the seven AFC playoff teams and figure out their likely offseason approach.
The NFL playoffs are roughly halfway finished, with the wild card round and half the divisional round completed and two more divisional games, the conference championships and the Super Bowl remaining.
When teams make the playoffs on a regular basis, they reach the point that they have to make tougher decisions on who to keep and who to release. That's because they are not only going to have veteran quarterbacks who will command a lot of money, but other players who, alongside the QB, are part of a core the team wants to build around.
As these teams start committing more money to these players, there's only so much money available and only so much cap space available, that teams have to decide who will stay and who will not.
It's worth looking at each of the playoff teams when it comes to their rosters, projected cap space and biggest decisions ahead. For now, I'll look at some key points for each playoff team, but will go into more detail once the NFL season is finished.
Let's look at each AFC playoff team and see what their offseason situation will be. All cap figures are obtained from Over the Cap, which is projecting a $272.5M base salary cap. I'll look at the NFC playoff teams next week.
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs are projected to be about $2M over the cap once they have 51 players under contract (they currently have 38). Regardless of whether or not they accomplish the three-peat as Super Bowl champs, they will have to make some choices about where the team goes from here.
The Chiefs tend to structure deals so they can get out of them in the final year or two if necessary. They also prefer not to use void years (though Patrick Mahomes is an exception).
But they have key decisions ahead when it comes to the likes of Travis Kelce, Joe Thuney and Nick Bolton, plus extensions for George Karalaftis and Trent McDuffie. If the Chiefs do get the three-peat, they could try keeping the roster intact for a run at a fourth straight Super Bowl. If not, they will have to consider who is or isn't part of the future.
Buffalo Bills: They are projected to be $14.6M above the cap once they get to 51 players under contract (they have 46). The Bills sat out free agency last year for the most part and will probably do so this year, too.
The Bills can clear some space by extending Gregory Rousseau. They are likely to make a handful of cuts, but that's more about clearing some space than about setting up for an aggressive free agency run. And the good news is they have stockpiled on draft picks, so they can replenish the roster that way.
Much of what should drive the Bills' approach is whether or not they win the Super Bowl. If that happens, they could think about keeping some players to try for another one. If not, they should stick to the 2024 approach.
Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens are projected to have $6.5M in cap space once they have 51 players under contract (they currently have 42). Their free agency approach is to look for value, but they will pursue a player they covet once in a while.
The Ravens do have to ask themselves if it's worth keeping certain players whose deals will expire. While these players weren't necessarily standouts, they did play key roles. The other question will be how much to commit to players who are eligible for extensions, with Kyle Hamilton being the biggest name.
As with the Bills, the Ravens could approach things depending on whether or not they win the Super Bowl. If they do, they can try to keep more of the roster together. If not, they can let some players go and focus more on who will be part of the core for 2025 and beyond.
Houston Texans: We'll have a better idea about the Texans' situation once they get 51 players under contract. They currently have 45 signed and, once they add a few more, are projected to be about $1.8M above the cap.
The Texans were active but not aggressive in free agency last year. This year, they are more likely to be quiet and any moves to clear cap space will likely be more about getting a better cap position than making a big free agency push.
With the Texans, the main thing is about preparing for what's to come in 2026. That's when CJ Stroud and Will Anderson will be eligible for extensions. Both have shown they can be part of the core and both are going to get paid well. That may be the biggest reason why the Texans take a pause in free agency -- the time to go "all in" will be in 2026 to keep two important players around.
Los Angeles Chargers: We come to our first AFC playoff team who is in a good cap position. They are projected to have $54.9M in cap space once 51 players are under contract (they have 46).
As I've said before and will say again, the Chargers know they can build around Justin Herbert but they need to get more pieces in place. They were correct to do a soft rebuild in 2024 and they could be prepared to move on from a couple of players who are still under contract in 2025.
The Chargers do have holes to fill on both sides of the ball but they have some free agents they might want to keep. The good news is the players they may want to keep shouldn't command big money. That will give them a chance to be aggressive in free agency if they wish. Even if they aren't aggressive, I expect they will be active.
Pittsburgh Steelers: They have 57 players under contract, so the projection of $40.6M in cap space is safe to use. Note that Over the Cap won't have every team's effective cap space updated until every team has 51 players under contract for 2025.
The Steelers have generally not been active in free agency. Furthermore, they are at a crossroads. Both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are free agents and, in Wilson's case, he won't take the veteran minimum now that the Broncos aren't paying him any longer. They don't have free agents they must keep nor younger players up for extensions who have to be extended, but they do have holes to fill along with QB.
The Steelers are a team that may want to reassess its position, particularly with the fact that they don't have a clear long-term answer at QB. Their best bet may be to find a veteran QB for whom they commit for 2025 but nothing guaranteed after that, then draft a QB with the expectation they need to do it again next year.
Denver Broncos: The Broncos have 52 players under contract for 2025 and are at $35.7M in cap space. They were aggressive in free agency back in 2023, then quiet in 2024. Might they be aggressive in 2025?
While I expect them to be active, I don't think they'll be aggressive, at least not when it comes to pursuing other players. It's true they have a QB (Bo Nix) who is on a rookie contract and played reasonably well. However, they have other decisions to make about current players.
Zach Allen and Nik Bonitto are both coming off career-best seasons and both are in the final years of their contracts. The Broncos are likely to commit their cash to those two before committing to somebody else. That doesn't mean the Broncos in free agency. It only means they may want to prioritize taking care of their own.