One Move or Point for Every NFL Team: AFC Edition
The 2024 NFL offseason has started. Here's one thing for each AFC team to keep in mind.
In a couple of weeks, the 2024 NFL offseason and league year will get underway. The NFL Draft combine starts Feb. 29 and, soon after, comes the "legal tampering" March 11-13, followed by the start of the new league year. This week, we may see some decisions made about franchise tags, with the window opening Feb. 20 (this Tuesday).
I wanted to go over each of the NFL teams and suggest a move or a point they need to keep in mind regarding how they approach the offseason. Given the timing of these installments, I'll look at a move that, as of this writing, hasn't yet been made.
I'll start with the AFC teams this week, then go to the NFC teams next week. With the latter group, it's possible you'll see some of them make particular moves when it comes to franchise tags and roster cuts, so I may focus more on points to keep in mind rather than specific moves.
Buffalo Bills: Designate Von Miller a post-June 1 cut.
The Bills took a major gamble in giving Miller a six-year deal with $45M fully guaranteed upon signing in 2022. Though Miller had a good start to the season, he suffered his second significant injury in three years and fell down the depth chart in 2023.
The Bills need to acknowledge that this move failed to live up to expectations and do what they can to move on. A post-June 1 designation frees $6.715M, though they'll have to carry Miller at his full cap hit until June 1. They need to use the designation because an additional $6.435M becomes fully guaranteed if he's on the roster at the start of the 2024 league year.
Miami Dolphins: Make up your mind about Tua Tagovailoa.
The Dolphins are projected to be nearly $60M over the cap once they get 51 players under contract (per Over the Cap, they have 45 now). They are a team that will certainly want to roll it back with as much of the roster as possible but need to clear cap space. One move that can help is an extension for Tagovailoa.
However, while Tagovailoa has demonstrated good play, he's not an elite talent. The Dolphins have to make a decision as to whether or not they think he's the long-term answer. If they believe he is, they need to extend him sooner than later. If not, they'll have to figure out how to work their cap situation, while finding themselves a fallback option at QB.
New England Patriots: Figure out if there's a QB in the draft that you love.
The Patriots have the No. 3 overall pick in the NFL Draft. They have a good defense in place but the offense needs a lot of work, particularly at quarterback. Mac Jones has failed to show he's the guy and Bailey Zappe looks like a short-term solution at best.
The Patriots are projected to have $66M in cap space, so they could pursue a veteran QB if they wish. However, they first need to look at the top QB prospects in the 2024 draft before committing to a veteran. If there's a prospect they love and believe he'll be there at No. 3, they should take him. If not, they can pursue a veteran but need to make sure they aren't committed to him for too long.
New York Jets: Better draft well.
The Jets expected to get to the playoffs this season, but Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles tendon and the team had no sense of direction. Everything indicates the current regime will go all in with Rodgers again, but they are on notice to win or they'll be gone after 2024.
Given that the Jets aren't expected to have a lot of cap space (about $2M), free agency really isn't the answer. The best thing that Joe Douglas and Robert Saleh can do is identify quality players in the draft. If nothing else, there will be some more players who can be part of the long term, even if Douglas, Saleh and Rodgers aren't part of it.
Baltimore Ravens: Beware of making any "all-in" moves.
The Ravens entered the 2023 playoffs with the No. 1 seed, with an offense and defense that were playing well down the stretch. However, the Ravens made mistakes that cost them points and, thus, the opportunity to get to the Super Bowl.
The Ravens need to not make the same mistakes that the Bills made when it comes to free agency. It may be tempting to go for a splashy move, but the Ravens would be better served sticking to the philosophy of looking for value in free agency and build through the draft.
Cincinnati Bengals: Tag Tee Higgins and give him permission to seek a trade.
There will be those who will insist the Bengals need to keep Higgins, no matter what it takes. But the reality is that the Bengals also have to consider that Ja'Marr Chase will be eligible for an extension and that it's not a given that Higgins will take a "two years then we'll see" deal that allows the Bengals some time to accommodate that eventual Chase extension.
The smart thing to do is to franchise tag Higgins but give him permission to seek a trade. The Bengals might not get what the Chiefs got for Tyreek Hill back in 2022, but it's not unreasonable to expect a 2024 first-round pick, given two firsts are the compensation if a team signed a tagged player to an offer sheet that the tagging team doesn't match. Going the "tag and trade" route allows the Bengals to get more than a 2025 compensatory pick for Higgins.
Cleveland Browns: Whatever you do, don't restructure DeShaun Watson's contract.
The Browns are projected to be nearly $20M over the cap for 2024. As I've previously discussed, there aren't a lot of moves the Browns can make to be cap compliant, though it's possible to do enough to get under the cap. But Watson's contract should not be touched.
You'll hear plenty of talk about how the Browns have to do something with his contract, but a restructure that converts base salary into a signing bonus is more trouble than it's worth. Watson has no incentive to renegotiate, either (and that means taking less money, which restructures are not about). Just leave Watson's deal alone and figure out who else makes sense to restructure or extend.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Be careful how you address your QB situation.
The Steelers do have a good overall roster in place but they still need to figure out what they'll do at quarterback. They have released Mitchell Trubisky, plus Mason Rudolph is an unrestricted free agent and Kenny Pickett doesn't appear to be the long-term guy.
It's likely the Steelers will add a veteran quarterback but they'll need to be smart about it. The Steelers typically don't give guaranteed money in anything but the signing bonus, though they have shown a willingness with more recent contracts to put guaranteed money into base salaries. However, regardless of how they structure a contract, they want to give themselves an out in case things don't work out and they need to reset entirely at the QB position.
Houston Texans: Be aggressive in free agency.
The Texans are projected to have $57.7M in cap space for 2024. CJ Stroud has left little, if any, doubt that he is the long-term QB and Will Anderson Jr. looks the part of the No. 1 pass rusher. They also have a quality cornerback in Derek Stingley Jr.
The Texans, more than any other team, need to capitalize by swinging big in free agency. There should be some pass rushers and cornerbacks who can help out and, while their young wide receivers are talented, adding a veteran there wouldn't hurt. I wouldn't trade picks away for players, but it's definitely the time to spend money in free agency.
Indianapolis Colts: Tag Michael Pittman Jr.
The Colts finally drafted a quarterback early rather than go with a short-term solution in free agency or via trade. Though Anthony Richardson missed the bulk of the season because of a shoulder injury, there's hope he can be the long-term guy.
Because the jury is still out on Richardson, the Colts shouldn't be aggressive in free agency, but they can utilize their cap space to tag Pittman. He's emerged into one of the better receivers in the NFL and the smart thing to do is keep him, particularly because he's a player the Colts drafted and developed. They can then see how things go with Richardson in 2024 and, if things work out, be more aggressive in free agency next year.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Decide whether Josh Allen or Calvin Ridley will be tagged.
The Jaguars are projected to be $11.3M above the cap and will have a few decisions to make about the roster, given that they have two key players who are set to become unrestricted free agents. Allen and Ridley are both coming off are both coming off quality seasons.
But the Jaguars only have one franchise tag available, so they'll have to choose which player gets the tag. Allen might be the better option, because the Jaguars could always draft a wide receiver, given that the 2024 draft class is deep. However, if they can get a deal done with Allen, the tag would be available for Ridley, assuming they don't get a deal done with Ridley first.
Tennessee Titans: Figure out if Will Levis is your guy before being aggressive in free agency.
The Titans aren't expected to bring back Ryan Tannehill, who is an unrestricted free agent. Levis showed some promise in 2023 but not enough to say that he's clearly the guy. At the same time, the Titans are projected to have $67.7M in cap space for 2024, more than any team other than the Washington Commanders.
However, just because the Titans have the cap space doesn't mean they should go all in on free agency. Levis might be the guy but it's not certain he will be. The Titans could take a chance on a couple of free agents but they shouldn't assume that free agency will provide a quick fix. If Levis improves in 2024, the Titans can be aggressive in 2025 free agency.
Denver Broncos: If Russell Wilson is cut, use the post-June 1 designation.
While a trade for Wilson can't be ruled out, it seems he is more likely to be cut than traded. Some Broncos fans think that the Broncos should just take all the pain in 2024 rather than spread it out over two years. But that's not possible without gutting the team.
The Broncos don't need a full rebuild but they do need to make decisions about who stays and who goes. These decisions were going to happen regardless of Wilson's status. However, if it comes down to a cut, better to do it as a post-June 1 designation. The Broncos might deal with a big dead money charge in 2025 but it will be easier to manage then, than it will be to manage the whole thing in 2024.
Kansas City Chiefs: Retain L'Jarius Sneed but let Chris Jones walk.
The Chiefs have a dynasty, having been to four straight Super Bowls and winning three of them. It will be no surprise to see pundits who will insist the Chiefs need to keep everyone together to ensure a three-peat.
However, while the Chiefs aren't perfect when it comes to roster decisions, they have shown they understand when it's time to keep a player and when it's time to let him go. Therefore, follow that practice and let Jones seek his fortunes elsewhere, but keep Sneed as a player they drafted and developed. Remember that the Chiefs have Creed Humphrey and Nick Bolton entering the final year of their deals, so it's better to save money for them than spend it on Jones.
Las Vegas Raiders: Be smart about finding your next quarterback.
The Raiders committed a fair number of resources to acquiring Davante Adams and extending Maxx Crosby. The former was defensible at the time though may be in question now, but the latter one was unquestionably the right thing to do. But there may be a temptation to find a quick fix at quarterback.
It's far from a given that Aidan O'Connell is the guy to build around but if the Raiders add a veteran, they should look for value. If they see a QB in the 2024 draft that they love and have the opportunity to trade up, do so. Just don't pretend that a veteran will provide a quick fix.
Los Angeles Chargers: Be prepared to cut at least a couple of players.
The Chargers are projected to be nearly $46M over the cap. They have a host of aging players, a number of free agents (not all who are worth retaining) and plenty of decisions to make. While hiring Jim Harbaugh was a good move, it's not the solution by itself.
Pundits who assume the Chargers can just roll it back because Harbaugh is present need to look again. The Chargers have to make decisions about which edge rusher to keep (Joey Bosa or Khalil Mack, pick one), which wide receiver to keep (Keenan Allen or Mike Williams, pick one) and who else is really worth keeping. They don't need a full rebuild but they do need to shed some parts and draft replacements, rather than believing that Harbaugh will cure everything.