One Move or Point for Every NFL Team: NFC Edition
The 2024 NFL offseason has started. Here's one thing for each NFC team to keep in mind.
The NFL Draft Combine starts on Thursday and the so-called "legal tampering" period for NFL free agency starts March 11. The window has opened for teams to utilize the franchise and transition tags, though as of this writing (Sunday morning, Feb. 25), no teams have applied them yet.
The NFL base salary cap has been set for $255.4M, which means now teams will have more breathing room to make planned moves. And with that in mind, I am going over each NFL team and suggesting a move or point to keep in mind with the offseason approach.
I went over AFC teams last week and, this week, will cover the NFC teams. Not a lot of moves have been made thus far but it's still early in the process.
Dallas Cowboys: Extend CeeDee Lamb.
The Cowboys will be slightly above the cap but have ways to get under it without having to cut multiple players. They may be considering an extension for Dak Prescott, given that he enters the final year of his contract and he has a $59.5M cap hit.
However, it may be easier to get an extension done for Lamb, whose fifth-year option comes in at about $18M. Lamb will no doubt push for top receiver money but he is comparable to the likes of AJ Brown in terms of his production.
New York Giants: Don't tag Saquon Barkley again.
Last offseason, the Giants opted to extend quarterback Daniel Jones and place the franchise tag on Barkley. While Barkley played well in 2023, Jones did not and the Giants are stuck with him for another year.
Though Barkley did play well, it's best for the Giants to not use the tag on him again. The tag will go up to a little more than $12M, which might not seem bad, but isn't the best utilization of resources. Barkley never signed the tag last year and took a one-year deal, so it's best to let him test the market.
Philadelphia Eagles: Exercise DeVonta Smith's fifth-year option.
I don't have a lot of suggestions for the Eagles, who have a pretty good roster in place. Their issues in 2023 seem to have more to do with coaching than anything else. The Eagles shouldn't go "all in" on a particular move but they don't have to make multiple cuts.
But an easy decision for the Eagles is to pick up Smith's fifth-year option. He's played well for the most part and the fifth-year option for him is about $15.6M, which is certainly reasonable given his production.
Washington Commanders: Decline the fifth-year option for Jamin Davis.
The Commanders will enter the 2023 offseason with the most cap of any team. They could be big players in free agency, particularly because they are in position to land one of the top QBs in the 2023 NFL Draft.
They will have to make some decisions about players on the roster and Davis is among them. His fifth-year option is estimated to be $14.5M and that's too expensive, given that he doesn't rank among the best at his position. It's best for the Commanders to decline it.
Chicago Bears: Put the franchise tag on Jaylon Johnson and work to extend him.
The Bears are another team who could be aggressive in free agency. They have a lot of cap space and, with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, they can take the quarterback they love.
The Bears already have Montez Sweat and DJ Moore under contract for the coming years. Doing the same with Johnson ensures they have a top player at three key positions. The Bears haven't used the tag yet, but I expect it will be coming, which should give them more time to get Johnson extended.
Detroit Lions: Identify one player in free agency on which to go "all in."
The Lions have done a good job of building their team through the draft. They will have about $57.6M in available cap space and could see 2024 as the time to find somebody that can put them into the Super Bowl.
If the Lions want to go for that "all in" move, this is the offseason to do it. They should limit themselves to one player who they love and pursue him aggressively, whether that's in a free agent signing or a trade. I wouldn't leverage their position too much, but they are a team that should think about who the final piece of the puzzle might be.
Green Bay Packers: Don't extend David Bahktiari but possibly renegotiate his contract.
The Packers have about $2.3M in cap space and need to figure out how to clear space. They may have to move on from some older players or those who are underperforming. Bahktiari might be one of those players considered.
Bakhtiari was active for just one game last season and was on injured reserve otherwise. He's in the final year of his contract and his cap number is more than $40M. The Packers certainly need to lower that number, but they should not be extending him by any means. They could renegotiate to convert some of his base salary into incentives, but failing that, they may have to cut him.
Minnesota Vikings: Let Kirk Cousins walk.
For the past couple of seasons, the Vikings have treated their roster building as though they were preparing for a "changing of the guard." They have parted ways with players who were extended by the previous regime and focused more on the talent the current regime has acquired.
That would include Cousins, in which the Vikings restructured his deal and added void years, but never extended him. He will now be a free agent and the smart thing for the Vikings is to follow through by letting him walk. It won't be easy to find a replacement, but the Vikings' moves have made it clear that is the intent.
Atlanta Falcons: Figure out the quarterback situation.
The Falcons are a team in which they have done a decent job of building the roster but have yet to settle the quarterback situation. They've been treading water at the position and need to get it settled.
What the Falcons need to figure out is whether they would rather go with a free agent who can hold the fort down for a couple of years or try to trade up in the draft. I would rather they do the latter, but if they don't like the top QBs in the 2024 draft, they may have no choice but to go with the former.
Carolina Panthers: Tag Brian Burns and either extend or trade him.
The Panthers reportedly got offers for Burns during the 2023 season but never completed a trade. Now there is talk that the Panthers might not be able to extend him at all.
Just letting Burns walk would be a foolish thing to do, because the best they could get is a third-round compensatory pick in 2025 -- and even that's not a given if the Panthers decide to explore free agency. The Panthers need to tag Burns and, if unable to extend him, give him permission to seek a trade. They would then be in a position to ask for a first-round pick as part of a trade package.
New Orleans Saints: Skip free agency and focus on the draft.
The Saints are in the worst cap situation of all 32 teams, to the point that they are already projected to be over the cap for 2025. They have already started the process to become cap compliant and will go through these same motions next year, too.
While the move to sign Derek Carr last offseason was understandable -- and to the Saints' credit, they waited until the Raiders cut him rather than give up draft picks -- this is not the year to go after a free agent. They should skip free agency and focus on the draft. They could consider trading down from No. 14 overall for more picks, particularly because they have no picks in the third and fourth rounds.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bring back Baker Mayfield on a contract similar to Geno Smith.
Mayfield isn't an elite quarterback but he played reasonably well for the Bucs in 2023 -- and the Bucs got great value considering they paid him $4M plus incentives and managed a division title (albeit in a weak division).
I wouldn't pay Mayfield a lot of money but signing him to a deal similar to what the Seahawks gave to Smith is reasonable. Smith averaged $25M on his three-year deal and got $27.3M fully guaranteed with injury protection in the second year. Mayfield would come in slightly higher, but it would still mean a team-friendly deal and allow the Bucs to keep their options open for the future.
Arizona Cardinals: Don't tag Marquise Brown but keep the door open for him to return.
The Cardinals are projected to have a little more than $51M in cap space. They will probably roll with Kyler Murray for another season and they might be thinking about adding Marvin Harrison Jr. in the NFL draft, should quarterbacks go off the board with the first three picks.
Brown will be an unrestricted free agent and isn't worth the franchise tag. It's not imperative that the Cardinals bring him back, but they could opt to do so if he tests the market and doesn't find another team. A short-term deal that pays him like a Tier Two receiver (about $18M APY) would be fine.
Los Angeles Rams: Don't go for a blockbuster trade.
The Rams will have nearly $40M in cap space for 2024 and will 11 picks in the draft. They also have an aging roster and will need to think about how much longer they can ride it out with their older players.
The Rams deserve credit for knowing when it's time to move on from players and for finding quality talent in the later rounds. However, that doesn't mean they are in position this year to trade away draft capital for a big-name player. They can explore free agency but are better off not acquiring top players via trade.
San Francisco 49ers: Don't restructure too many contracts.
The Niners had their chances to win the Super Bowl but fell short. It does make sense for the Niners to roll it back with the bulk of the roster intact. What they must avoid doing is rolling it back too much.
They will need to figure a way to become cap compliant and could do that through restructured contracts. Fred Warner is an easy choice to restructure and the Niners could do the same with George Kittle. However, I would restructure no more than two contracts. They want to have some flexibility in 2025 in case things don't go as expected in 2024.
Seattle Seahawks: Cut Jamal Adams.
The Russell Wilson trade worked out great for the Seahawks, who acquired more draft capital and used it well on players who look like they will be part of the long term.
It makes up for a trade that backfired on the Seahawks, that being their acquisition of Adams. They are finally in position to cut him and put that failed trade behind them. A straight cut frees $7.3M in cap space with a $19.5M dead money charge. The Seahawks could opt for the post-June 1 designation (or just wait until after June 1, since he has no guaranteed money left), but they are in a position to take the dead money charge from a straight cut.