Over the Cap Adjusts Its Projected 2024 Base Cap
The adjustment could add to the difficulties for certain teams.
The past few weeks, I've written about the teams who have work to do to navigate the 2024 salary cap -- and it turns out they may have more work to do than expected.
That's because Jason Fitzgerald at Over the Cap provided an update about the 2024 cap, in which he lowered his estimate for the base cap to $242M, down from a previous estimate of $255M.
The NFL had borrowed against future cap years because the COVID pandemic meant no in-person attendance in 2020 and, thus, reduced money in the revenue sharing that goes toward for player salaries.
I'll let you read what Jason had to say about the cap but multiple teams I've examined will have more work to do. Also, future articles I write about navigating the cap will account for updated figures.
In the meantime, here's the way I'd categorize the teams in terms of how much work they have to do.
Teams in a major bind: Saints, Chargers, Dolphins, Bills
All of these teams are projected to be at least $50M over the cap once they get 51 players under contract. For all but the Dolphins, there's a chance they could have new regimes in place, to include new general managers and head coaches. The Saints have the biggest mess to sort out but the Chargers and Bills need to do a lot of reassessing, even though both have QBs in the prime of their careers. The Dolphins have plenty of decisions ahead, too, though some of that will depend on how far they go in the playoffs.
Teams in a slight bind: Broncos, Cowboys, Browns, Steelers
All these teams are projected to be between $15M to $30M over the cap once they get 51 players under contract. The Broncos will have the most work to do but it won't be that difficult to get cap compliant. The Cowboys will have the least amount of decisions to make because they have 48 players under contract for 2024. The Browns don't need to do much but don't have a lot of options. I'll talk more about the Steelers next week.
Teams who need to exercise caution: Niners, Seahawks, Packers, Ravens, Jets
All of these teams, once they get 51 players under contract, are either projected to be over the cap by an amount less than $10M or under the cap by an amount less than $10M. The Niners and Ravens will likely look at their situations based on how the playoffs go. The Seahawks and Packers might have to make their decisions based on how confident they are in their QB situations. The Jets will have to ask themselves how much it's worth chasing a playoff trip at this point, even as Aaron Rodgers is expected to return.