Predicting the NFL Fifth-Year Option Decisions for 2025
What will NFL teams do with 2022 first-round picks who have options due for the coming offseason?
During each NFL offseason, teams must make a decision about the fifth-year options for former first-round picks who enter the fourth year of their draft pick contract. These options are built into the contracts that first-round picks sign after they are drafted.
The fifth-year option locks the player into a fully guaranteed salary for the next season. If the option is declined, the player will be eligible for unrestricted free agency next season unless he is extended. If a first-round pick is waived before his deal expires, then clears waivers, the fifth-year option no longer applies.
The option has escalators built in based on playing time and Pro Bowl selections on the original ballot, which will raise the cost of the option.
In some cases, teams should base their decisions on the option on what the cost will be. If the option isn't that high, it might be worth exercising for a player even if that player hasn't been elite. However, there are rare occasions in which a team may need to decline the option even for a top player, if that player plays a position that isn't a premium position.
Because the cost of options is based on player salary data in a similar way to the franchise tag, it can skew the value of certain positions. All offensive linemen are judged the same when the player market has shown that offensive tackles are valued more than offensive guards and much more than centers. All linebackers go into the same category, whether they are edge rushers in 3-4 schemes or off-ball linebackers.
I'm going to look at the 2022 NFL Draft first-round picks, who all have fifth-year options due. I'll predict which players get their options exercised or decline and explain my reasoning for each.
Travon Walker, Jaguars
Prediction: Exercised
Though Walker was not the best pass rusher from the 2022 draft class, he has played well the past two seasons. The $16.472M option would put Walker in the second tier of salaries, which is acceptable. The Jaguars could consider an extension but need to keep it in line with his production and not re-set the market.
Aidan Hutchinson, Lions
Prediction: Exercised
This one is a no-brainer at $23.1293M. Hutchinson has been everything and more for the Lions and his presence was missed when his 2024 season ended because of a broken tibia and fibula. The Lions are almost certain to get Hutchinson extended at some point before the 2025 NFL regular season starts and Hutchinson is a good bet to re-set the market for edge rushers.
Derek Stingley Jr., Texans
Prediction: Exercised
Stingley has put together two quality seasons and, after earning a Pro Bowl nod, his option rose to $17.64M. Still, that's a fair price point for Stingley. The Texans could consider extending him and should be able to avoid re-setting the market for the position. One consideration, though, could be what happens with other cornerbacks on this list.
Ahmad Gardner, Jets
Prediction: Exercised
This one is a bit tricky. Gardner earned two Pro Bowl nods in his first two seasons, which puts his option salary at $20.879M, but his play declined in 2024. Whether he's worth the option depends on who you ask. I would lean toward the Jets exercising the option but not extending him for the time being. Another option is for the Jets to trade Gardner and let the acquiring team make the decision about the option.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, Giants
Prediction: Exercised
Here's another tricky situation. Thibodeaux improved from 2022 to 2023, but missed five starts in 2024 because of injury. He's probably done enough to warrant picking up the option for $16.472M. Though the Giants paid Brian Burns a considerable sum last year, they should be able to manage the cost of the option for 2026. The Giants could hold off on an extension for the time being, but re-visit that if he had a good start to the 2025 regular season.
Ikem Ekwonu, Panthers
Prediction: Exercised
Ekwonu missed two starts in 2024 but has been a steady presence otherwise. His fifth-year option comes in at $18.9M, which is a reasonable sum for a quality starting left tackle. Though Ekwonu didn't have his best season in 2024, he's arguably shown enough to warrant an extension. The recent extensions for Garett Bolles and Dion Dawkins might be the comps.
Evan Neal, Giants
Prediction: Declined
Neal has played right tackle since he was drafted and has missed 24 games. Given that he has missed so much time, it doesn't make sense for the Giants to exercise the option at $17.86M. They could always leave the door open for a short-term contract in 2026, if he starts all 17 games and plays well in 2025.
Drake London, Falcons
Prediction: Exercised
London broke out in 2024 and his performance likely means the Falcons will exercise his option for $17.06M. That salary puts him roughly where Jerry Jeudy is. Though some receivers are likely to get paid a lot, with some at the top of the market, the Falcons need to be careful not to overpay in any extension for London. While he had a quality season, London isn't an elite player.
Charles Cross, Seahawks
Prediction: Exercised
Cross has been a reliable left tackle and it won't be a difficult decision for the Seahawks to exercise his option for $18.9M. The Seahawks should work to extend Cross and the recent deals for Bolles and Dawkins could be the comp here as well.
Garrett Wilson, Jets
Prediction: Exercised
Wilson has played well enough to justify having his fifth-year option of $17.06M picked up. The question with Wilson is whether the Jets keep or trade him and, if they do keep him, how willing they are to extend him at this time. Wilson might be a player who pushes to be paid at the top of the market for receivers. The Jets have to ask themselves if they think he's a player that must be part of the rebuild or if they are better off dealing him.
Chris Olave, Saints
Prediction: Declined
Olave's concussion history has led to reports that the receiver could retire. Regardless of his decision, the Saints will decline his fifth-year option for $15.551M. The only question remaining is whether or not Olave wants to play in 2025. If so, the Saints should trade him for whatever they can get.
Jameson Williams, Lions
Prediction: Exercised
Though Williams hasn't played a full 17-game season since being drafted, he showed enough in 2024 that there's a case for exercising his fifth-year option, which comes in at $15.551M. That money would put him below Jeudy and give the Lions two more seasons to determine whether or not Williams is a player worth keeping. I could see the Lions declining the option, then evaluate him during 2025 and extend him at an appropriate price point.
Jordan Davis, Eagles
Prediction: Declined
On one hand, the fifth-year option for Davis is just $11.752M, which is reasonable for a player of his talents. On the other hand, he's been used in a rotational role and it might be better for the Eagles to commit resources elsewhere. The fact that he doesn't play a lot of snaps would indicate that it's likely the Eagles decline the option, though they could leave the door open for a low-cost extension.
Kyle Hamilton, Ravens
Prediction: Exercised
The fifth-year option for Hamilton comes to $20.13M, which puts the safety in position to seek a contract that would re-set the market at his position. For Hamilton, though, it's hard to argue he isn't one of the best safeties in the NFL. The Ravens will have some work to do to ensure an extension will be cap friendly, but this is likely a situation in which they will want to get an extension done before the start of the 2025 regular season.
Kenyon Green, Texans
Prediction: Declined
Green missed the 2023 season with a shoulder injury and started just nine games in 2024. That means he's not worth the fifth-year option at $17.86M.
Jahan Dotson, Eagles
Prediction: Declined
The Commanders traded Dotson to the Eagles last year and Dotson started just six games this past season. His play doesn't warrant picking up the fifth-year option for $17.06M.
Zion Johnson, Chargers
Prediction: Declined
Though Johnson has missed just two starts in his first three seasons, does that make him worth the fifth-year option for $18.9M? For perspective, Jonah Jackson averaged $17M per year on the three-year deal he signed with the Rams last season. This might be a situation in which the Chargers decline the option but then extend Johnson at a salary that is more in line with his play.
Treylon Burks, Titans
Prediction: Declined
Burks started just 15 games in his first two seasons and played in just five in 2024. He isn't worth the fifth-year option of $15.551M.
Trevor Penning, Saints
Prediction: Exercised
After starting just six games the first two seasons, Penning started all 17 games in 2024. At $17.86M, it's probably worth exercising the fifth-year option. Given the Saints cap situation, they might have to extend Penning, even if an extension won't provide a lot of cap relief. But they can at least make a case for Penning to be a key part of the long-term picture.
Kenny Pickett, Eagles
Prediction: Declined
The Eagles acquired Pickett in a trade with the Steelers to be the backup to Jalen Hurts. They won't exercise the fifth-year option for $21.219M.
Trent McDuffie, Chiefs
Prediction: Exercised
McDuffie is a quality cornerback but has never been named to the Pro Bowl on the original ballot. That kept the cost of his fifth-year option down and, at $13.051M, it's an easy decision to exercise it. The question is how soon the Chiefs get an extension done. In McDuffie's case, the Chiefs shouldn't re-set the market at the position.
Quay Walker, Packers
Prediction: Declined
Walker hasn't been productive enough to warrant exercising the fifth-year option for $16.472M. The Packers will let him play out the year but could bring him back in 2026 at a price point more in line with his production.
Kaiir Elam, Bills
Prediction: Declined
Elam's fifth-year option comes to just $12.029M, but he has started just 12 games in three seasons. That doesn't warrant picking up the option, particularly after he played just 35 percent of the snaps in 2024.
Tyler Smith, Cowboys
Prediction: Exercised
Smith started at left tackle for 17 games as a rookie, then moved to left guard for the next two seasons. Because he got a Pro Bowl nod, his fifth-year option comes to $23.329M. With the Cowboys, it's anyone's guess what they will do. Given their recent behavior with extensions, I'm not betting on them getting a deal done with Smith this offseason. While I would rather go the "decline but extend" route with Smith if he's viewed as a guard, I'm guessing the Cowboys will pick up the option and needlessly drag out contract negotiations.
Tyler Linderbaum, Ravens
Prediction: Declined but extended
Linderbaum is one of the best centers in the NFL. However, because all offensive linemen are placed in the same category when it comes to fifth-year options, Linderbaum would get $25.802M in 2025. For perspective, Creed Humphrey — the highest-paid center in the NFL — won't earn $25M in a single season of his four-year extension. As good as Linderbaum is, this has to be a case in which the Ravens decline the option but get an extension done, one that will likely pay him more than Humphrey, but not that much more. Humphrey got $72M over four years with $45.5M in new guarantees, so that should be the comp for a Linderbaum extension.
Jermaine Johnson II, Jets
Prediction: Declined
Johnson improved a lot from 2022 to 2023 but then missed the bulk of the 2024 season because of a torn Achilles. The Jets need to decline the option, even at $15.116M, so they aren't locked into that salary if Johnson doesn't have a good season or his injury recovery doesn't go well. If things do work out with Johnson in 2025, they can always extend him later.
Devin Lloyd, Jaguars
Prediction: Declined
Lloyd is a good linebacker but he's not worth the fifth-year option of $16.472M. It might make sense for the Jaguars to extend him at a price point that is more in line with his talents. The only caveat will be the free agent market at the linebacker position, in which a couple of players could come in at high price points.
Devonte Wyatt, Packers
Prediction: Declined
Wyatt doesn't play enough snaps to justify picking up the fifth-year option for $13.434M. He's another player that the Packers might leave the door open to bringing back in 2026 at a salary that is more in line with his production.
Cole Strange, Patriots
Prediction: Declined
Strange missed seven games in 2023, then 14 in 2024. He's not worth the fifth-year option for $17.86M.
George Karlaftis, Chiefs
Prediction: Exercised
Karlaftis is another player who has been productive but never named to the Pro Bowl. That kept his fifth-year option amount down, and at $14.95M, exercising it is an easy decision. As with McDuffie, the Chiefs could look to extend him but they shouldn't re-set the market for the position in doing so.
Daxton Hill, Bengals
Prediction: Declined
Hill started just two games as a rookie but then started all 17 in 2023. He missed 12 games in 2024 because of a torn ACL. Though his fifth-year option comes to just $9.633M, this might be a case of the Bengals not wanting to get locked into that salary in case things don’t go well with his recovery. The Bengals might wait until close to the deadline to make a decision here, so they can determine if he is on track to be cleared to play well before training camp.