Roster Decisions Await the Chiefs and Bucs
The two teams who played in the Super Bowl would like to return next season. But how likely are they to keep their rosters intact?
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs met in the Super Bowl and, while it may not have been the close game some expected, the expectations is that both teams will be contenders for the NFL's championship game next year.
The question, though, is how these teams will keep the core of their rosters together, given a lower salary cap.
At this point, reports are that the NFL's base salary cap could be as much as $185M, which gives teams a little more wiggle room than the expected cap of $175M, but will still present some challenges for teams as they build their rosters.
The Chiefs and Bucs will each have to address some issues with the salary cap, though in different ways. How will they differ?
Let's look at each of their rosters and cap situations to see what moves they may need to make.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are projected to be $21.8M above the cap once they get 51 players under contract. Thus, the Chiefs will need to find a way to get under the cap.
Most of this will probably be accomplished through restructures, in which they will convert roster bonuses due to players into signing bonuses.
The first such move is an easy decision: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is due a $21.7M roster bonus, which the Chiefs are certain to convert the bulk into a signing bonus. The 10-year contract Mahomes signed gives the Chiefs flexibility to pro-rate that over the next five years.
The Chiefs have another easy decision to make with tight end Travis Kelce. He signed an extension last August, but it didn't include a signing bonus. He has a $7M roster bonus due in March and the Chiefs can easily convert that into a signing bonus and pro-rate it over the next five years to lower his cap number.
The third player in which the Chiefs may restructure his deal is defensive lineman Chris Jones. He has a $20M roster bonus due March 20 that can be converted into a signing bonus for additional cap relief, though it would be spread out over three years and would really raise his cap number in each of the next two years.
The Chiefs could consider doing the same for wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who is due $11.8M in roster bonuses, $9.25M of which is due in March. Hill has just two years left on his deal, though, so converting that amount could raise his cap number a lot in the final year of his deal.
Another possibility is the Chiefs will extend a player entering the final year of his current contract. There was the chance that they would have extended offensive tackle Eric Fisher, but he tore his Achilles in the playoffs and he may not be available for the start of the 2021 season. I suspect the Chiefs will hold off on such extension talks.
That brings us to safety Tyrann Mathieu, whose deal also expires after 2021. He was a Pro Bowl selection in 2020 and remains the best defensive back the Chiefs have. The only question the Chiefs have here is how much they want to pay him in an extension. The safety market has gotten stronger in the past two seasons, so Mathieu could seek a deal that set a new benchmark at the position.
Doing simple restructures of Mahomes, Jones and Kelce can get the Chiefs to about $13M in cap space, and an extension for Mathieu could free even more. That would allow the Chiefs to keep a couple of their restricted free agents on second-round tenders -- guard Andrew Wylie and cornerback Charvarius Ward are both worth that tender, and they might do the same with linebacker Ben Niemann.
As for unrestricted free agents, the most notable are Sammy Watkins, Bashaud Breeland, Daniel Sorensen and Anthony Sherman. I can see the Chiefs keeping a couple on value deals, but others may be allowed to move on.
What the Chiefs will have to do is resist the temptation to go trade for players at the cost of high draft picks, which is what the Seahawks have done several times, but it hasn't gotten them back to the Super Bowl, despite having a top quarterback in Russell Wilson. The Chiefs need to stick with finding players through the draft and value signings in free agency as they continue to build around Mahomes.
But the Chiefs shouldn't have that much difficulty complying with the cap while keeping their core players in the fold.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are projected to be $15.1M under the cap once they get 51 players signed to the roster. Normally, this would be a decent amount to work with, but there's an issue with how the Bucs usually manage their cap.
Unlike most teams, the Bucs don't utilize signing bonuses for the most part. They prefer to keep all the money in base salaries, with the occasional roster bonus. That's good in terms of avoiding dead money, but it makes it trickier to make all contracts cap friendly.
And when you consider the Bucs have a lot of key players who are eligible for unrestricted free agency, that could be a problem.
The most notable players whose deals have expired are wide receiver Chris Godwin, edge rusher Shaq Barrett, linebacker Lavonte David, tight end Rob Gronkowski, defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh, running back Leonard Fournette, wide receiver Antonio Brown and kicker Ryan Succop.
It's going to be impossible for the Bucs to keep everyone around by structuring contracts with base salaries alone and no signing bonuses, with barely more than $15M in space to work with.
Therefore, if the Bucs believe they can push for another Super Bowl under Tom Brady in 2021, they'll have to utilize the signing bonus to keep the team together.
The first player they should do this with is already under contract for 2021. Brady is due a $10M roster bonus in the final year of his two-year deal. The Bucs can spread that out over four years to lower his cap number, using either void years after 2021, adding three actual years beyond 2021, or a combination of additional years and void years.
If they add additional years, they should agree to put a $10M roster bonus into each additional year, payable on the fifth day of the league. This ensures the Bucs have to make a decision about Brady early in free agency, so if they do cut him, he can find another team sooner.
A signing bonus will likely be utilized to keep Gronkowski around, with the Bucs using the tactic the same as with Brady. Either void years or additional contract years in which a roster bonus is due would work. Because Gronk enjoys playing with Brady, he could be inclined to take a below-market deal.
It gets tricky from there. The Bucs have three players who might get consideration for the franchise tag. I'd rule out David because he doesn't play a premium position and because he's 31 years old. The franchise tag for linebackers is $15.6M, which is too much for him. In fact, it may be best for the Bucs to allow David to depart, unless he's willing to take a below-market deal to stay.
Barrett got the tag last year, and so his tag number will be based off that. He got $15.8M in 2020, so his 2021 tag number will approach $19M. While that's still good value for a pass rusher, Barrett has proven he's worth a long-term deal, so I wouldn't keep playing the tag game with him. The Bucs really need to extend him.
That leaves Godwin, whose tag number is estimated to be $16.4M. The market for receivers could be strong, given the talent at the position that is eligible for free agency, though it may not reach new heights given the reduced base cap and economic concerns some teams will have. Tagging Godwin may be the best option if the Bucs don't agree to an extension before the tag deadline.
It's likely the Bucs will have to cut a couple of players to make room to keep better players. Though defensive lineman William Gholston has played well, he'll be 30 years old and the Bucs may want to get younger at the position. They would save $5.5M by cutting Gholston.
Left tackle Donovan Smith didn't quite live up to his salary in 2020 and the Bucs could free $14.25M in 2021 by cutting him. But then the Bucs would have to find his replacement, which may not be that easy. I would think the Bucs are more likely to ask Smith to renegotiate his deal, converting base salary into incentives, to get some cap space freed.
Center Ryan Jansen is due $9.25M in base salary and his play has declined a bit. His bad snap during the Super Bowl was one of the few low points for the Bucs in that game. Again, the Bucs may want to have continuity on the line, so they may be more inclined to ask Jansen to convert base salary into incentives, rather than just cutting him.
The Bucs would probably want to move on from tight end OJ Howard, but his $6M salary is guaranteed for injury, and he tore his Achilles back in November. They won't be able to cut him without having to pay that money and it's not likely he'll be traded.
That brings us to another tight end under contract: Cameron Brate. He's due a $250K roster bonus and a $6M base salary, plus he turns 30. There's a chance the Bucs could trade him for a late-round pick, but if they find no takers, they may need to cut him in order to keep other players. If they move on from Brate, they can either draft a tight end or hope that Howard will be healthy by the time the 2021 season begins.
Once the Bucs make their decisions on those players, they aren't likely to be active in free agency, because taking care of their own will take up the bulk of their cap space.
Like the Chiefs, the Bucs will need to resist the temptation of giving up high picks for players in trade. They should focus on continuing to replenish their roster through the draft, which they've been smart about for the most part. And doing that is going to be the best way to ensure they have a good roster in place for however long Brady wants to keep playing.