Six NFL Head Coaches Under Scrutiny
Let's look at the NFL head coaches who may be under the most pressure to win in 2023 if they want to return for another season.
Between the 2022 and 2023 NFL offseasons, there were enough moves that generated headlines to make it known that some head coaches, going into 2023, would come under scrutiny.
While the past two seasons have seen two head coaches who didn't even finish their initial seasons -- Urban Meyer because of his off-field antics and his treatment of players and Nathaniel Hackett for being way in over his head, perhaps more so than any head coach in history -- first-year head coaches generally are not on the hot seat from the moment they are hired.
However, some coaches who are entering their second years could be, while in other cases, said coaches have three or more seasons in their current stints. But in their cases, either blockbuster trades or changes up at the top might mean those coaches are expected to "win now," particularly if the team hasn't made the playoffs under his reign.
Of course, there could be a head coach to decides to retire after the 2023 season. But somebody like Sean McVay (who was said to be contemplating retirement after 2022) or Bill Belichick (who has coached the Patriots for 21 seasons and might have retirement in mind) aren't the same as head coaches who are under the microscope. The ones I'll examine are those who might fall under the "win or else" situation when it comes to ownership expectations.
Let's look at six head coaches who might be under the most pressure to win in 2023.
Robert Saleh, New York Jets
In recent seasons, the Jets have had a tendency to either fire the general manager or the head coach. While Joe Douglas could be coming under scrutiny as he enters his fourth season as GM, the same could be said for Saleh, who starts his third year with the team.
The Jets have gone 11-23 the past two seasons with Saleh and their 2021 first-round pick, Zach Wilson, lost his starting job last season. The Jets then traded for Aaron Rodgers during the offseason, with the expectation that Rodgers would get them back to the playoffs.
Douglas has made some good draft picks, but others have failed to live up to expectations, notably Wilson and offensive tackle Mehki Becton (the latter because of his injury history). While he did draft two players in 2022 who made an immediate impact (Garrett Wilson and Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner), the Rodgers trade stands as his big swing of the offseason, the one that is supposed to put the Jets over the top.
The AFC, once again, will have multiple teams pegged as potential playoff contenders. After the Rodgers trade, it's likely Jets ownership will demand a playoff trip. If they don't get it, Douglas could be gone. And given that things haven't gone well when the Jets have fired their general manager but not the head coach, if Douglas goes, it's possible Saleh could join him.
In short, the Jets are likely a team who sees 2023 as "playoffs or else." If they miss the playoffs again, expect changes.
Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns
Stefanski did well in his first season as head coach in 2020, in which the Browns finished 11-5 and advanced to the playoffs. The past two seasons, though, haven't gone as hoped.
Baker Mayfield regressed in 2021 and the Browns finished 8-9 and missed the playoffs. That prompted the Browns to go "all in" to acquire DeShaun Watson in a trade. Watson was suspended the bulk of the 2022 season and the Browns finished 7-10.
The Watson trade was controversial when it happened, in part because of the sexual assault allegations and lawsuits against him, and in part because Watson got a five-year contract with every dollar fully guaranteed, after he initially ruled out the Browns when visiting with teams who wanted to acquire him.
Though the Browns were patient with Stefanski when they didn't have Watson in the lineup, they may not be so patient this season. Ownership is likely to expect at least a winning season, if not a playoff trip, given Stefanski's success in 2020 and the resources used to acquire Watson. A losing record might mean changes will be coming to Cleveland.
Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders
McDaniels got just two seasons with the Denver Broncos before being canned. He then considered the Indianapolis Colts' head coaching job, was announced as the hire, but then pulled out.
When he was talking to the Colts, some wondered if McDaniels might fare better in his second head coaching stint, but his sudden decision to pull out raised questions. But then came 2022, in which McDaniels got his second chance.
The Raiders went 6-11 in his first season, but the bigger story was what happened with players on the roster. Derek Carr got benched for Jarrett Stidham, then was cut during the offseason. Darren Waller, who got extended in 2022, was then traded to the Falcons this offseason.
Then the Raiders added Jimmy Garoppolo as the new quarterback, even with his health being a concern. There are those who would see this and wonder if McDaniels is repeating the mistakes he made during his tenure with the Broncos more than a decade ago.
With all this said, Mark Davis isn't the richest owner in the NFL and might not be interested in switching out head coaches if it means having to pay McDaniels to do something other than coaching. Still, if the Raiders miss the playoffs again, Davis might find his hand forced.
Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders
There were high expectations when the Commanders hired Ron Rivera back in 2020. After posting a 76-63-1 record with the Carolina Panthers, the hope was that Rivera could have similar success in Washington.
However, the Commanders have gone 22-27-1 in the past three seasons. They did win the NFC East in 2020, but winning a weak division with a losing record isn't going to rate high. Truth be told, under Rivera, the Commanders have been good enough to challenge teams but not good enough to post a winning record.
That, in turn, has made it more difficult for Washington to find its next quarterback. Taylor Heinicke had his moments but didn't prove to be the long-term guy. Now the Commanders will try Sam Howell, a fifth-round pick in 2022.
The Commanders will enter the season with new ownership. On one hand, Dan Snyder getting out of the picture may be a boost to the franchise. On the other hand, new owner Josh Harris may have his own ideas about what he wants in a general manager and a head coach.
If things don't go as expected in Washington this season, Harris could decide he wants his own front office and coaching staff in place. If so, Rivera may not be back after this season.
Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints
Allen has done quality work as a defensive coordinator -- back in 2011, he was good in his first season with the Broncos that the Raiders hired him to be their head coach. He lasted two seasons and four games in his third season before being fired.
When Sean Payton announced he was taking a year off from head coaching duties, Allen replaced him for the 2022 season. The Saints went 7-10 and missed the playoffs. They tried Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton at quarterback and didn't get much out of either one.
The Saints then signed Derek Carr, who didn't want to be with the Raiders any longer and was subsequently released. The Saints were wise to wait until the Raiders cut him, rather than sending draft capital, but their 2023 season likely hinges on Carr's signing, a move that the Saints would expect will get them to the playoffs, particularly in a weak NFC South division.
If the Saints don't make the playoffs, it may be time to ask whether or not Mickey Loomis should stick around as general manager. If he goes, Allen likely goes with him. But if Loomis stays, he might feel pressured to make a coaching change, because who knows how many more chances he'll get given the Saints' mediocrity since Drew Brees retired.
Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After Bruce Arians retired from head coaching duties, the Buccaneers named Bowles to replace him. Bowles had previously been the head coach for the Jets, going 10-6 in his first season, only to have a losing record the next three seasons before being fired.
Bowles went 8-9 in his first season with the Bucs, who won a weak division. Tom Brady, who initially retired in the 2022 offseason, only to decide to return, has hung it up for good and the Bucs are entering a reset of sorts.
The Bucs have a number of veterans who are aging and, while there is some young talent in the mix, they don't necessarily have their long-term quarterback on the roster. If they don't make the playoffs this season, they might decide it's time to rebuild.
If so, that could mean the Bucs decide to move forward without Bowles as head coach after the 2023 season. Given that the NFC South is still expected to be a weak division, the Bucs might insist upon another playoff trip, and if Bowles doesn't deliver, he might not return.