Stafford for Goff: Who Needs More Out of This?
The Lions get more draft capital, while the Rams really need to get a Super Bowl out of this trade
It may be a week until Super Bowl LV but it certainly wasn't a boring weekend for the NFL, in which the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams swapped starting quarterbacks in a blockbuster trade.
The Lions sent Matthew Stafford to the Rams in exchange for a 2021 third-round pick, first-round picks in 2022 and 2023 and Jared Goff.
When the Lions announced that they planned to trade Stafford, NFL fans may have figured that a team that needed a quarterback was the more likely suitor, such as Washington, the Colts, the Bears, the Patriots, the Broncos, the Panthers and the 49ers.
There were a few reports about the Rams, but I imagine fans didn't think that the Rams were serious, because they couldn't just cut Goff outright, whereas other teams either could safely part ways with their current QBs, or their QBs had expiring contracts and they needed a new one.
Instead, the Lions were willing to take Goff, and here we are.
How does this trade impact each team and what should they expecting in return? Let's examine that.
What It Means for the Lions
The Lions will take on $27.5M in fully guaranteed salary for 2021, which includes a $2.5M roster bonus due March 19. Detroit will have a $27.5M cap charge for Goff, unless they restructure his contract.
Moving Stafford means a $19M dead money charge and frees $14M, but that freed cap space is taken up Goff's salary. The Lions now have $13.5M in additional cap charges, meaning they will have to cut players or restructure deals, should the cap be at $176M. By my calculations, the Lions will be about $12M over the cap, assuming a $176M base cap.
When the Lions announced they would trade Stafford, the assumption was that the Lions were going to draft a quarterback in 2021. The acquisition of Goff means that's no longer a given, though it's still a possibility.
However, given that Goff not only has his entire 2021 salary fully guaranteed, but has a $15.5M roster bonus for 2022 that became fully guaranteed in 2020, the Lions will have cash commitments through 2022. His base salary for 2022 ($10.65M) is guaranteed for injury only.
That means, should the Lions opt to take a QB in the 2021 draft, it may not be until 2023 that the draft pick takes over, meaning they miss out on two years of a cost-controlled contract for a potential starting QB.
If Goff doesn't work out in 2021, the Lions could always start that drafted QB in 2022, but would have to eat $15.5M in cash to cut Goff, unless they were lucky enough to find a team willing to trade for him.
But if the Lions wait until 2022 to draft a QB, they would be in a better position because they could cut Goff in 2023 with no dead money charges. And with multiple first-round picks in 2022 and 2023, the Lions could trade up to get a QB if necessary.
The extra draft capital puts the Lions in a better position to rebuild the team. They had just five picks in the 2021 draft, but the extra third helps this year and, should they not have to trade up for a QB in 2022, they have extra firsts to further build the team.
For the Lions, this is simply the first step in rebuilding their roster. The only question now is how soon they are prepared to draft a QB. Ideally, they get one in 2022, though maybe they target one in 2021, but focus on one who needs a year of development.
Whether this works out for the Lions depends entirely on how well they draft. Do that and they set themselves up in better position in the future. Fail to do that and you can pretty much guess a new regime will take over.
What It Means for the Rams
The Rams have been aggressive in trading for players in recent years. They made a bold move up the board in the 2016 draft to get the No. 1 overall pick, with which they selected Goff. They more recently sent multiple first-round picks and a fourth rounder for Jalen Ramsey. Now we have this trade.
We'll start with the draft picks: The Rams haven't drafted in the first round since they took Goff in 2016, and now, it may not be until 2024 that they draft in the first round again, unless they manage a trade up the board or send a player to another team for a future first-round pick.
It's true that the earlier picks in the first round represent the best chance to get an impact player, but it's still possible to find talent in the latter half of the first round. In 2017, for example, players such as Marlon Humphrey, Garett Bolles, Evan Engram, T.J. Watt and Ryan Ramczyk were taken at pick 16 or later.
But the main reason for having those first-round picks is they represent cost-controlled contracts, which allow you to put cheap, young talent around a veteran QB. Those picks also have a fifth-year option, which isn't cheap, but often represents a salary below the market for veteran players.
The Rams still have picks in the second round and later, and will have six picks remaining in 2021, so they still have some draft capital available. But the trade does mean less capital available to find players to replenish the roster.
As for the cap, the Rams were projected to be $31.2M over the cap for 2021, assuming a base cap of $176M. Trading Goff means a $22.2M dead money charge with $12.75M in cap space freed.
Acquiring Stafford, though, means a $19.5M cap charge, in the form of a $10M roster bonus due March 21 and a $9.5M base salary. That means the Rams see their total cap charges increase by nearly $7M.
The Rams will still have some work to do to get under the cap, but that can be done by restructuring the roster bonus for Stafford, plus contracts and roster bonuses for players who the Rams intend to keep in 2021, such as Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and possibly Tyler Higbee.
But the Rams have to remember that they don't want to utilize restructures too much, lest their window close and they dig themselves into a cap hole. I've already talked about the Saints and their situation, and while Stafford is younger than Brees, the Rams don't want to get stuck in a bad predicament, should Stafford not live up to expectations.
Of course, the Rams want playoff trips out of this trade, but they really need more than that. Considering the draft capital they gave up to get Stafford -- and that one could argue they had to include that additional first-round pick so the Lions would take Goff -- the Rams really need to be winning the NFC West title on a regular basis, get to the NFC title game and, most of all, get to at least one Super Bowl.
If the Rams simply remain a wild card contender or a team that keeps taking early playoff exits, this trade will go down as another one in which the Rams thought they were getting a long-term benefit, but it didn't change their position as much as they expected.
That's why, for the Rams, this is such a risky trade. They've already leveraged their bets on Goff, then Ramsey, and now Stafford. If all they get out of this is more "one and done" playoff runs, it's going to be hard to argue that they came out ahead.