The 10 Worst Bold Moves to Acquire A Quarterback
Free agency, blockbuster trades and trades up the first round have all been tried to find QBs. Which such moves were the worst?
I've written several times about the bold moves that NFL teams have made to find their quarterback, and when you look back at the evidence, the majority of such moves have failed.
The latest team to make a bold move for a quarterback is the San Francisco 49ers, who sent the 12th overall pick to the Miami Dolphins, plus two future first-round picks and a future third-round pick. The Niners almost certainly have their sights set on one of the top QB prospects in the 2021 draft class -- though it remains to be seen if their guy will be there.
I've already gone over how the success rate for moving up the board to get a quarterback hasn't been that good, though it's certainly been better than trading for a veteran QB or signing one in free agency.
It's possible that recency bias with the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and DeShaun Watson trending in the right direction plays a part in this decision. It's also possible -- and more likely -- that the cost control of draft pick contracts makes getting an inexpensive quarterback through the draft desirable.
But I remind you about how many times teams have made bold moves to get a quarterback and how a lot of them have failed. Only time will tell what happens with the Niners' bold move, but like the bold move the Rams made to acquire Matthew Stafford, they really need this one to pay off or it's just going to make things worse.
That's evident in the all-time worst bold moves to obtain a quarterback. I narrowed my list down to 10 which are obvious busts and, in most cases, absolutely perplexing moves given what was known about the quarterback at the time.
Let's go over the list.
10. Cardinals trade up for Josh Rosen
There are plenty of trades up the draft board I could have considered, such as Washington's trade for Robert Griffin III or various trades up a few spots to get a guy like Paxton Lynch or Johnny Manziel. However, the Rosen deal edged them out because it was a deal involving multiple picks for a player who was gone after just one season.
Rosen was considered one of the top QB prospects entering the 2018 draft, a QB draft class that had five prospects that held intrigue to some degree. Rosen was ranked second among the prospects at one point, but fell down the ranks. The Cardinals still sent the 15th overall pick, plus picks No. 79 and 152, to move up to ninth overall to get Rosen.
One year later, the Cardinals changed coaches, had the No. 1 overall pick, drafted Kyler Murray and sent Rosen to the Dolphins for a second-round pick in 2019. It's the quickest a team has moved on from a first-round QB since the rookie pay scale was implemented.
9. Lions sign free agent Scott Mitchell
When free agency became reality in 1993, it was tempting for teams to look at backup quarterbacks who played for other teams, then hit the open market. Case in point is Mitchell, the original candidate for why signing free agent QBs to big contracts can come back to haunt you.
Mitchell had started seven games for the Dolphins in 1993 after starter Dan Marino was injured, but the Dolphins stuck with Marino and allowed Mitchell to hit the open market. Enter the Lions, who gave Mitchell a four-year, $21M contract -- a large sum at the time.
The Lions got two playoff trip in Mitchell's five seasons with the team. Mitchell was pretty good in 1995 when he threw for 32 touchdown passes with 12 interceptions and the Lions reached the playoffs. However, he never played that well otherwise and was eventually benched in 1998. Though not a terrible signing, Mitchell failed to move the needle as the Lions had hoped.
8. Bears sign free agent Mike Glennon
Finding a veteran to be the bridge to a quarterback you draft and develop isn't a bad thing. The problem comes when you pay a lot of money to such a quarterback.
Case in point is Glennon, who started 18 games in 2013 and 2014 for the Buccaneers before that team drafted Jameis Winston. Despite Glennon demonstrating he was an average QB at best, it didn't stop the Bears from giving him a three-year, $45 million contract.
The Bears got just four starts out of Glennon before he was benched (we'll get to that one shortly). He was cut after the season, and while the Bears weren't on the hook for the entire contract, they had paid Glennon $16M, or $4M per start -- a far worse outcome than what Mitchell delivered.
7. Bears trade up for Mitchell Trubisky
And that brings us to the other bold move the Bears made in recent years that failed to get a good return. The 2017 draft class had three QBs in the conversation of top prospects and Trubisky was considered by some to be the best of the three.
The Bears got so desperate to get Trubisky that they sent picks 67 and 111 in 2017, plus a third-round pick in 2018, with the No. 3 overall pick to get the No. 2 overall pick. That's right -- moving up one spot in the first round was worth two thirds and a fourth.
Trubisky's play for the Bears wasn't terrible, but it was far from being elite. He was mostly average in his four seasons with the team, but the Bears were so desperate for QB help that they later traded for Nick Foles. And while the Bears twice made the playoffs under Trubisky, they still allowed him to leave in free agency.
6. Colts trade for Craig Erickson
In the years prior to Peyton Manning being the Colts' selection at No. 1 overall in 1998, the team was having its issues finding a quality quarterback. They had traded up to No. 1 overall to select Jeff George, who didn't work out as expected (and we'll visit him later).
Erickson had started 30 games for the Buccaneers in the 1993 and 1994 seasons, but the Bucs were ready to start their first-round pick in 1994, Trent Dilfer. The Colts decided to send a first-round pick to the Bucs to acquire Erickson.
What they got in return was three starts from Erickson, who injured his elbow and required Tommy John surgery. The Colts cut him after the 1995 season, meaning that first-round pick resulted in a player who started just three games -- and thought it was injury that ended his run, the Colts should have asked themselves why they sent a first for a QB with a TD-to-INT ratio of 34 to 31.
5. Falcons trade for Jeff George
The Falcons got a pretty good haul in return for trading out of the No. 1 overall pick in 1990. Four years later, they acquired the very player who the Colts drafted with that pick: George.
After George struggled for most of his time with the Colts, they sent him to the Falcons for first and third-round picks in 1994 and a conditional pick in 1995, which eventually became a first.
The return the Falcons got was better than what the Colts got, because they did make the playoffs in 1995, while the Colts never made the playoffs at all in George's four seasons with that team. However, George clashed so often with coaches that he was suspended for the 1996 season after three games, then was traded to Oakland the following season.
4. Raiders trade for Carson Palmer
After the Bengals drafted Andy Dalton in the second round of the 2011 draft, Palmer didn't report for training camp, indicated his desire to be traded.
The Raiders, meanwhile, had a solid showing that season with Jason Campbell as their quarterback, but after he was lost for the season to injuries, the Raiders opted to acquire Palmer, sending first and second round picks in 2012 to get him.
Some may argue the Raiders did what they had to do because they expected to go to the playoffs, but they missed out on such a trip in 2011, then went 4-11 in Palmer's 15 starts the following season. The Raiders moved on from Palmer, trading him to the Cardinals for Day 3 picks, and thus had little to show for their blockbuster trade.
3. Jaguars sign free agent Nick Foles
While trades up the draft board and trades for veterans have plenty of instance of big failures, free agency is where the biggest failures lie. Case in point would be the Jaguars adding Foles.
Foles started three games in 2017 for the Eagles after Carson Wentz was lost for the season with a torn ACL. The Eagles won the Super Bowl that year and Foles was Super Bowl MVP, but how much that influenced the Jaguars to sign Foles in free agency in 2019 is debatable.
Whatever the reason, the Jaguars gave Foles a four-year, $88M contract, in which they paid him $30.125M for four starts. Foles was injured early in the season, and Gardner Minshew II did some good things, but when Foles was healthy, they went back to him, only to bench him for poor play. The Jaguars then dealt Foles to the Bears after the season.
2. Bills sign free agent Rob Johnson
Bills fans know about the multiple quarterback failures after Jim Kelly retired, and there were several that could have been candidates for this list. But Johnson tops them all by far.
Johnson had played just eight regular-season games with just one start in his three seasons with the Jaguars. Despite that extremely small sample size, in 1998, the Bills gave Johnson a five-year, $25M contract -- again, that was a huge sum at the time.
What the Bills got in return was Doug Flutie outperforming Johnson most of the time and considered the QB responsible for the team's playoff trips in 1998 and 1999. After Flutie was gone, Johnson started 19 games in 2000 and 2001, when it became clear he wasn't the guy. He was gone after 2001.
1. Texans sign free agent Brock Osweiler
Osweiler started seven games for the Denver Broncos in 2015, when the Broncos had a dominant defense, one that propelled them to a Super Bowl win. However, Osweiler, who started after Peyton Manning was injured, was replaced by Manning in the final game of the regular season and Manning started throughout the playoffs.
This didn't stop the Texans from signing Osweiler to a four-year, $72M contract with $37M guaranteed. Osweiler started 14 games in 2016, but was mostly ineffective, and most would say the Texans made the playoffs that year, despite Osweiler's play.
After the season, the Texans dealt Osweiler to the Browns in arguably the most infamous trade in NFL history, with the Texans sending a 2017 second-round pick with Osweiler to unload his salary. Osweiler thus becomes the most prominent example of "buyer beware" when it comes to free agent quarterbacks.