The 2023 NFL Free Agent Field: Offense
What does the free agent field look like for offense and what can we expect in terms of who could get paid big money?
The 2023 NFL free agent field is not expected to be a strong field overall. Teams looking for upgrades to their rosters probably won't find much help in free agency this year.
There could be some notable names who are traded, but when it comes to players who hit the open market and may sign with any team they choose, it's not likely you'll see players who move the needle to a large degree.
At some positions, there may be notable names who become available, but they may not be at the positions that are considered high value.
To illustrate, the quarterback is considered the most important position on offense while the pass rusher (edge rusher and interior defenders who excel at pressuring the QB) would be the most important on defense. After that comes wide receiver, cornerback and offensive tackle. The next group would be interior offensive line and safety, followed by off-ball linebacker and tight end, then running back and interior defenders whose strength is run defense, then specialists (punter, kicker, long snapper, special teams gunner).
When a free agent field is more about players who have less value to a team than others, that could mean prices could go up at said positions. That's because agents will try to negotiate favorable deals for the available players, along with teams who may talk themselves into the idea that said players will help the team win games.
This week, we'll look at the positions on offense and what the potential unrestricted free agent fields may be like. We'll look at some notable names at each position and what it could mean for how the market plays out in 2023. (Note: I won't include street free agents, or players who have been released before their current contracts expired, which means you won't see names like Derek Carr mentioned.)
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson is, by far, the biggest name who is eligible for unrestricted free agency. However, the Ravens are certain to use the exclusive franchise tag, meaning he cannot negotiate with other teams. But the tag would still allow the Ravens to give Jackson and his agent permission to seek a trade, assuming the two sides can't come to terms on a new contract.
The reason for using the exclusive tag is because, under the non-exclusive tag, two first-round draft picks are the compensation if the Ravens choose not to match an offer sheet Jackson signs. Because the Seahawks got more than two firsts in the Russell Wilson trade, the Ravens will want more than two firsts in exchange for Jackson.
As for other QBs set to hit free agency, Jimmy Garoppolo is likely to get a big payday from a team who is under pressure to make the playoffs in 2023. Geno Smith could see a bigger payday as well. Daniel Jones is an interesting case -- he did improve under Brian Daboll but his limitations were evident during the playoffs.
The rest of the field features players who are either hoping to revive their careers like Smith did (Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold) or who are clearly backups at this point (Jacoby Brissett, Teddy Bridgewater). Some of these players could get short-term deals to be the bridge to a QB a team drafts, while others may take one-year deals with the expectation that they will play behind a veteran.
Running backs
Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs are arguably the top two players in this field. After missing most of the 2020 season, then playing poorly in 2021, Barkley bounced back in 2022 and played at a high level. The Raiders, meanwhile, declined the fifth-year option for Jacobs, who then delivered his best season as a pro.
Barkley might get the franchise tag from the Giants, but if not, teams who sign him need to ask not only about his health, but whether they run a scheme that maximizes his talents. As for Jacobs, he's logged 1,072 carries in his career, including 340 this past season. Will Jacobs turn out like Derrick Henry and remain a dominant back? Or will he resemble Ezekiel Elliott, in that he gets a massive extension, then turn in good-but-not-great play and thus fail to justify that extension?
Players such as Devin Singletary, David Montgomery, Tony Pollard and Miles Sanders are quality contributors but none of them have proven to be dominant. That means they shouldn't be paid top dollar, though it's possible a team could overpay on the belief that, because he hasn't logged that many carries, his best years are yet to come.
Other running backs weren't in featured roles and are best viewed as complementary backs who can play an important role in an offense. Those backs may represent the better value because they will come at a lower price.
Wide receivers
If you're looking for a No. 1 wide receiver in free agency, you're out of luck. The receivers set to become unrestricted free agents aren't players you sign to be your team's top target.
However, if you are looking for a No. 2 option, you are in a better position. A player such as Parris Campbell or Allen Lazard could fit the bill. These are the type of players that you don't give a deal at the top of the market, but a tier two deal could pay off.
There are also players who took one-year deals in 2022 who showed they could be productive, such as Mack Hollins and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Again, these are the type of receivers who are best viewed in a No. 2 role, rather than as the top target.
The field also includes some aging players like Marvin Jones, but these players have shown they can be useful as a No. 3 receiver. As long as you are careful about what you spend, somebody like Jones could still contribute.
Tight end
Dalton Schultz and Mike Giesicki both played under the franchise tag in 2022. Neither one played as well in 2022 as they did in 2021. It would surprise me if their teams tagged them again. Meanwhile, Evan Engram signed a one-year deal with the Jaguars and he played well. While the Jaguars are tight on cap space, it's possible they consider the franchise tag.
If all three hit the open market, Engram could be in line for a bigger payday, given his status as a former first-round pick. Schultz might get paid close to the top of the market, while Giesicki may have to go with a one-year deal.
Otherwise, the free agent field here isn't particularly strong. Foster Moreau showed some promise this past season but isn't likely to get a big payday. Juwan Johnson showed improvement in 2022, but he's a restricted free agent. And though the Saints have a lot of work to do to become cap compliant, it would surprise me if they don't attempt to retain Johnson.
If you're looking for a tight end who can fill a complementary role, you should be able to find one for a reasonable price. But there's no game changes, meaning you aren't likely to see big contracts handed out, with the possible exception of somebody taking a chance on Engram.
Offensive tackle
Orlando Brown tops the left tackle field but it won't surprise me if the Chiefs put the franchise tag on him again. After all, their starting right tackle, Andrew Wylie, is also an unrestricted free agent. The Chiefs may let Wylie walk, but it would shock me to see them let Brown walk as well.
The right tackle field is where the better options exist, though it's not exactly a deep group. Mike McGlinchey, Kaleb McGary and Jawaan Taylor are the best of the right tackles, but it's possible their current teams try to retain them, if not tag them.
Beyond that are a bunch of players who are either aging or have a limited number of starts. Put the likes of Brown, McGlinchey, McGary and Taylor aside and you are looking at short-term solutions at best.
Brown might not re-set the market for offensive tackles but he's likely to get paid well. The likes of McGlinchey, McGary and Taylor may not approach what Ryan Ramczyk and Brian O'Neill received, but they are likely to come close.
Interior offensive line
The centers and guards set to hit unrestricted free agency mostly feature older players or those who have talent but have not demonstrated consistent play at a high level. There is one exception: Ben Powers.
Powers is coming off his best season and, given that the Ravens have other priorities to address, he's likely going to hit free agency and will be paid top dollar. The teams with the most cap space available are likely the favorites to add him.
After Powers comes players like Connor McGovern, Jake Brendel, Rodger Saffold, Isaac Seumalo, Austin Blythe, Jon Feliciano and Dalton Risner. These players have all done good things in their careers, but they aren't worth top dollar for one reason or another.
The question that remains is whether teams will recognize that the money Powers is likely to get isn't the type of money that should be paid to other interior offensive linemen. For aging players, this may not be a problem, but for players who are still in their primes, there could be teams who talk themselves into overpaying.
Next week, we'll look at unrestricted free agents on defense.