The Baker Mayfield Trade: Who Was More Desperate?
The Browns send the 2018 No. 1 overall pick to the Panthers in a trade in which one might say that neither team did well here.
Our crazy 2022 NFL offseason saw yet another high-profile player traded -- this time it was quarterback Baker Mayfield, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft.
The Cleveland Browns, who acquired DeShaun Watson earlier in the offseason in one of a number of high-profile trades, sent Mayfield to the Carolina Panthers this past week. The Panthers sent back a 2024 conditional fifth-round pick. As part of the deal, the Browns will pay $10.5M of his 2022 salary, with Mayfield agreeing to reduce the remainder by $3.5M.
That Mayfield was willing to reduce a fully guaranteed base salary is notable, because it would signal how serious he was about wanting out of Cleveland.
What happens with Mayfield remains to be seen, but let's look at each of the teams involved and ask ourselves this question: How desperate were these teams to get this deal done?
What It Means for the Browns
The Browns, of course, made headlines with their decision to trade multiple first-round picks for Watson and give him a five-year, fully guaranteed contract for $230M.
To sum up the Browns' situation regarding Watson, the team's move made it clear they were more concerned about getting Watson than anything else. He had already ruled out the Browns early in his search, and his off-field issues are well documented, but that the Browns came forward with an unprecedented offer demonstrated that nothing mattered other than acquiring him.
Before the trade talks became public, Mayfield made it known publicly that he wanted out. The Browns didn't move him right away, even after trading for Watson. One would think they would have remained patient in trading him — after all, the Browns held the leverage because Mayfield couldn't hold out and risk losing a lot of money.
While there's no guarantee that the Browns would have found a taker at a higher sum during training camp, we've seen it happen before. Recall the Vikings trading for Sam Bradford after the season-ending injury to Teddy Bridgewater, in which they were willing to give up a first- and fourth-round pick for him.
That the Browns decided to move on now suggests they simply wanted to be done with him, regardless of what they got in return.
I'm still surprised they couldn't get a better draft pick for Mayfield. While one is free to debate how good Mayfield is, he has had modest success and been to the playoffs before.
Again, there's no guarantee what the Browns get in return would go up if they traded him closer to or during training camp. But they had to settle for a Day 3 pick two years down the road, which indicates their chief concern was simply "get rid of him."
What It Means for the Panthers
The Panthers now have two quarterbacks taken in the top five in 2018, the other being Sam Darnold. We'll get back to Darnold in a minute.
On one hand, the Panthers did a good job of not giving up too much to get Mayfield. On the other hand, this is the same team that has been on the opposite end of trades in which they got the raw end of the deal.
That brings us back to Darnold, who the Panthers acquired from the Jets last year for three draft picks. They did this just one season after signing Bridgewater to a three-year deal.
After acquiring Darnold, not only did they pick up his fifth-year option, they later sent Bridgewater to the Denver Broncos, getting a sixth-round pick in return and having to pay $7M of his 2021 base salary.
The Panthers are likely stuck with Darnold, whose value is much lower than Mayfield's. Darnold could very well become the backup — and with an $18M fully guaranteed base salary due in 2022, that's one expensive backup.
Furthermore, the Panthers traded up to draft Matt Corral earlier this year. That was a defensible move, because they would at least have an option behind Darnold that they could try out if Darnold struggled again. However, with Mayfield on board, Corral is likely the third-string QB and will be lucky to see the field.
I agree with those who have said that the Mayfield trade is more about Matt Rhule trying to save his head coaching job. I don't know how much input Rhule has in personnel, but I do believe that Rhule is one of the head coaches who has to get his team to the playoffs if he wants to return in 2023.
If things don't work out, the Panthers will need to rebuild, given that they are projected to be over the cap in 2023 and will see both Darnold and Mayfield hit free agency. If the Panthers don't make the playoffs, it will be hard to justify giving either QB the franchise tag.
I guess you can say the Panthers learned one lesson, given that they did a better job with the Mayfield trade than the one to acquire Darnold and the one to move on from Bridgewater. However, this is still a team that doesn't appear to have a coherent plan in place. It won't surprise me if the Panthers are cleaning house after the season.