The Broncos 2023 Spending and 2024 Outlook
There is a risk to the Broncos' free agent foray, but there are ways to mitigate it. Also, a look at other teams who have to think about the long term.
Normally, I try not to write about the Denver Broncos, given that I write about them all the time for Mile High Huddle.
However, given that the Broncos were active in free agency and spent more money than any other team, some are asking the question: "How can the Broncos do this and keep everyone together for the long haul?"
Certainly, there are legitimate questions about what will happen with Russell Wilson in 2023 after he signed a extension before the start of the 2022 season -- an extension in which they paid him $52M last year, owe him $28M this year and have $39M committed to him next year.
Let's get to Wilson first. Some had advocated for cutting Wilson this year and dealing with the pain. The problem was that there was no way to cut Wilson this year without gutting the roster. That's because, even as a post-June 1 cut, the Broncos would actually lose cap space by cutting him.
In 2024, current figures show the Broncos won't lose cap space by cutting him, though they won't gain any, either. (From a cap space standpoint, it's a "break even" instance.) However, whether it stays that way is depends on what happens in 2025.
Wilson's 2025 salary is guaranteed for injury, meaning the Broncos will have to watch how he plays this coming season. If he struggles early, he has to be benched before he gets injured. Otherwise, the Broncos are on the hook for more money and, thus, are likely stuck with him for another season.
That, of course, doesn't answer the question as to why the Broncos committed so much cash to free agents this offseason. The answer, in this case, was the Broncos lacking draft capital and needing to build a team around Wilson in hopes that he can bounce back in 2023.
Certainly, the Broncos took risk with the way they doled out money. Mike McGlinchey's contract, in particular, is effectively a three-year commitment. The rest of the contracts are mostly "two years then we'll see," but they do represent a significant amount of money.
But what of 2024, you say? The Broncos do have a way to get some cap relief, because a few players will enter the final year of their contracts (in which there's no guaranteed money for them) or have players who may have a few years left on their deals but no more guaranteed money left.
Regardless of how Wilson fares, the fates of Garett Bolles, Randy Gregory, Tim Patrick and DJ Jones will be decided after the 2023 season. Even if Wilson plays well, the other four could be cut if they don't stay healthy or otherwise decline.
In other words, while the Broncos are taking risk with the deals they signed to free agents this offseason, they have a way to get themselves cap space. Plus, they will have more draft capital for 2024, which allows them to get back to replenishing the roster that way.
That doesn't mean there's nothing to concern themselves with for the future. If Wilson struggles, they'll need to bench him sooner than later, lest they risk being on the hook for money in 2025. They'll also have to figure out what's next at quarterback.
But the Broncos aren't the only team that will face some questions for 2024. Other teams have some questions to answer about the long term -- and in a couple of cases, they have less wiggle room available than the Broncos have.
Chargers: The Chargers weren't active in free agency this year, but they did restructure a bunch of contracts to get under the cap. They are a team expecting to return to the playoffs in 2023.
However, they will have to be prepared in case a playoff trip doesn't materialize. Keep in mind that it isn't just a question about what the Broncos do in 2023, but what other AFC teams do as well.
Outside the AFC West, there's four teams in the AFC East and AFC North who are all pushing for a playoff trip. Even if the Broncos miss the playoffs, the Chargers could still miss out if those other two divisions take all the wild card berths.
And with Justin Herbert's fifth-year option coming, his cap hit will increase in 2024. The Chargers also have to think about an extension for him. If they choose to extend him this offseason, the question will be what his cap hit looks like in 2024.
With that said, the Chargers didn't use void years in restructuring deals and kept the amounts pushed into the future at just enough to get under the cap. They can still move on from players next year if necessary. But if the Chargers do miss the playoffs, it's more likely they will cut a couple of players rather than go through another round of restructures.
Bills: After a 2022 offseason that was all about getting to the Super Bowl, the Bills didn't even make it to the AFC title game. They weren't that active in free agency, but they are faced with some questions about the future of the team.
Ed Oliver has a fifth-year option that the Bills must decide about exercising. Gabriel Davis will become an unrestricted free agent next year, as will A.J. Espenesa. It remains to be seen whether the Bills keep any of these players.
If they do, they'll have to make decisions about others on the roster, given that they will need cap space to keep those three. Players like Mitch Morse, Dion Dawkins and Taron Johnson could be released to free cap space.
However, for a team that still has Super Bowl aspirations, they have to ask themselves how much longer they can keep this going. Much of that will come down to how the Bills fare in 2023 -- particularly if they do reach the Super Bowl this time around.
Dolphins: Speaking of teams with playoff aspirations, witness the Dolphins. They traded for Jalen Ramsey and, while they didn't give up much to get him, they further diminished their draft capital.
And this comes at a point in which they are expected to be above the cap in 2024, even if the cap takes a large jump. (For the record, the NFL has been "borrowing" against future cap years since 2021 to avoid dropping the cap too much, after there were no fans attending games in 2020 and, thus, a reduced pool of money for players from revenue sharing. That "borrowing" is expected to end in 2024.)
The Dolphins will have to ask themselves how soon they want to extend Tua Tagovailoa. They must also consider how much to pay Christian Wilkins and the fate of some other players (notably along the offensive line) whose deals will expire.
Even as the Dolphins expect to remain a playoff contender, they'll have to make some decisions about who to keep and who to let go. They were at least smart not to be too active in free agency this year, but next year, there's going to be work to do.
Browns: Unlike the Broncos, the Browns don't have the possibility of getting out of the contract for DeShaun Watson in 2024. Because they fully guaranteed every dollar of that contract, Watson will be their QB unless he retires.
Certainly that's going to be a concern if Watson doesn't play better in 2024. But even if he does, the Browns have questions to ask about how they'll manage the salary cap, given that they are projected to be way above it, even by the most generous cap estimate.
They haven't made a decision on the fifth-year option for Jedrick Willis, but it's hard to see them not picking it up. They'll have to ask themselves if it's worth keeping players such as Amari Cooper, Nick Chubb and Joel Bitonio, who could be cap casualties.
The Browns' future likely depends on whether or not they make the playoffs this year. If they do, they could be tempted to restructure a lot of deals to ensure they keep the band together. If not, it's fair to ask if they decide to clean house.
Saints: We're about to go through another year in which capologists will wonder if the Saints are ever going to get their cap situation figured out.
The Saints did find their quarterback in Derek Carr and have a two-year commitment on the contract he signed. But given that the NFC South is expected to be a weak division, the Saints decided to do a lot of restructures, plus they pursued a number of free agents.
It all added up to the Saints being projected to exceed the 2024 cap by a significant amount -- again, even with the most generous cap estimate. While the Saints, on paper, are the favorites to win the NFC North, what should happen if what's on paper doesn't translate to the field?
The Saints have been kicking the cap can down the road for some time and the best that we've seen from them is being a wild card contender that falls short of such a berth. Perhaps they do win the division this year, but how competitive will they be outside the division?
If things don't go according to plan in 2023, the Saints will be faced with another challenge: How do they navigate the cap and still address their team needs? They've found ways to do it in recent years, but at some point, the moment could come in which it's time to stop restructuring everything and do a re-set.