The Falcons and the Cap: Navigating the Rebuild
While the Falcons don't have the cap crunch they had in 2021, they'll still need to be careful about how they approach their situation in 2022.
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As the 2021 offseason got underway, the Atlanta Falcons had a tricky cap situation to manage. They were $16M over the cap and didn't even have 51 players under contract at that point.
The Falcons restructured the contract of quarterback Matt Ryan at the time, which made some people think the Falcons were still in "win now" mindset. In reality, though, they were entering a rebuild that was going to take time.
Among the moves the Falcons had to make to gain cap space was trading wide receiver Julio Jones. That didn't happen until after June 1, though, because the Falcons couldn't gain cap space by trading him before June 1, nor could they designate a trade post-June 1 (trades count immediately against the cap) and a post-June 1 cut wasn't going to help, either.
This goes back to what happened under the final years of Thomas Dimitroff, the former general manager, who was trying too hard to keep everybody together after a Super Bowl trip and wasn't doing a good job of drafting players in his final years.
The end result was the Falcons having to roll with fewer players under contract because, even with the top 51 cutoff, cap space was going to be tight. Not until they traded Jones did they get the cap relief to sign draft picks and fill out the roster.
Going into 2022, the Falcons' cap situation is a bit better, as they are projected to $12.5M in cap space. However, they have just 29 players under contract, so they will be $8.5M over the cap once they get to 51 players -- and that's only if they add players on futures contracts or tender exclusive rights free agents.
Thus, the Falcons will still be rebuilding as they try to navigate their cap situation. They might be in a position to keep a few veteran players around, but they have to be smart about who to keep.
Let's look at decisions the Falcons will have to make during the 2022 offseason about players currently under contract.
Matt Ryan: The Falcons quarterback will count for a $48.6M cap hit in 2022. He has a $7.5M roster bonus due March 11, plus a $16.25M base salary.
Given that the 2022 quarterback draft class isn't a strong class, it makes sense for the Falcons to keep Ryan. However, they have to be careful with a restructure, because they want to give themselves as much flexibility as possible in 2023 regarding his future with the team.
I would avoid touching Ryan's contract, given his age and that his play, while not bad, hasn't been at a high level. But if the Falcons believe they need to do so, I'd limit it to converting the roster bonus into a signing bonus, then add a couple of void years to spread out the hit. That allows the Falcons to keep Ryan through 2023, though that's the year when they'll have to be prepared to draft his eventual replacement.
Grady Jarrett: He's entering the final year of a four-year contract he signed back in 2019. Jarrett hasn't been bad this year, but some may question if he's worth the $16.5M base salary he's due in 2022.
The Falcons would gain $16.5M in cap space by cutting Jarrett. However, Jarrett will be just 29 years old and he hasn't missed a game the past three seasons.
This all comes down to whether or not the Falcons think Jarrett can bounce back in 2022. If so, they could ask Jarrett to renegotiate the final year of his contract for cap relief, by converting some of his base salary into incentives.
If the Falcons decide to move on from Jarrett, a trade isn't out of the question. There could be teams willing to give up a day three pick, and it would certainly help the Falcons to get additional draft capital for 2022.
Calvin Ridley: The 2018 first-round pick has been a steady performer, but five games into the 2021 season, he announced he was stepping away from mental health reasons.
It remains to be seen if Ridley will return to the Falcons or not. If he opts to retire, the Falcons would be free of the $11.1M fifth-year option on his rookie deal, clearing some cap and cash commitments.
With Ridley, it's as simple as this: The Falcons need to visit with him to determine if he wishes to play in 2022. If he's prepared to return, the Falcons will likely have to roll with the full $11.1M cap hit, rather than extend him. If not, the Falcons need to request that he file his retirement notice so they can get cap cleared.
Deion Jones: The Falcons made Jones one of the highest-paid off-ball linebackers in the NFL when they extended him back in 2019. He has been solid this year, but he'll count for a cap charge of more than $20M in 2022 and has $13.6M in fully guaranteed salary.
Trading Jones is a possibility if the Falcons don't think he's worth the cap hit. They would gain $9.3M by trading him prior to June 1. Considering that Jones is due a $4.5M roster bonus March 21, if the Falcons were to trade him, they need to do so by that date.
If the Falcons decide to keep Jones, they should avoid a restructure. That would allow them the flexibility to move on from him in 2023 should they find it necessary.
Jake Matthews: This one is simple enough: Matthews continues to play well and is worth the $12.5M base salary he's due in 2022. In his case, it makes sense to restructure his deal with a couple of void years added after 2023. An extension might be possible, though that depends on how much Matthews and his agent would be seeking.
If it were up to me, the best thing for the Falcons to do to get under the cap is this: Restructure Matthews, trade Jarrett, keep Ryan and Jones but don't restructure their deals, and find out whether or not Ridley wants to return. If Ridley comes back, don't extend him, but if he retires, you get additional cap space to work with.
The good news for the Falcons is this should be the last year they'll have to carefully navigate their cap situation. In 2023, they'll be in a better position to manage the cap and complete their rebuild.