The Four Things I'm Certain About the 2024 NFL Draft
What will happen in the NFL draft is mostly guesswork but there are a couple of things I expect will happen.
I want to discuss more about the NFL draft in the coming weeks, particularly the practice of trading up or down in the draft. However, that one will require some research.
To sum up, there are those who say it's better to trade down than up in a draft or that if you're going to trade up, it better be for a quarterback. While both bits of advice can be useful, if everyone decided they'd rather trade down than up, but make an exception for QBs, the only times in which a team moves up and another moves down is if the team moving up drafts a QB.
I don't say this to dismiss such bits of advice, but I'd rather look at draft-day trades and figure out how often such moves up or down the board worked out for teams. My focus was going to be on the years since the rookie pay scale went into effect and we now have enough years of that scale, plus enough knowledge about which players worked out for the teams in question, for a sample size to figure out how successful such moves turned out.
Again, that will take research, which I will undertake this week now that I have more free evenings. In the meantime, I wanted to share a few things about the 2024 NFL Draft.
While I don't follow the draft as extensively as others, I follow it enough to understand what's going on with certain teams. Therefore, I have a few observations I believe can be safely made about the upcoming draft.
Everyone will tell you about what teams think of this player or how aggressive a team will be in wanting to trade up for somebody (particularly a QB). But while there may be some truth to these things, they are often based on guesswork, not certainty.
But I do believe four things are certain about the upcoming NFL draft. These are things that didn't require a lot of guesswork, but simply based on observations of the moves teams have made and their current situations.
What are the four things I am certain about the draft? Let's review.
1. The Bears are taking Caleb Williams with the first overall pick.
It wasn't that long ago that some argued that the Bears should trade the first overall pick and build around Justin Fields. But Fields has since been traded to the Steelers and now their top QB on the depth chart is Tyson Bagent.
Then there were those who saw Williams liking a social media post about how unfair the draft is to incoming college players or a family member of Williams talking about it. That led to speculation that Williams didn't want to play for the Bears (who received the Panthers' 2024 first a year ago in a trade and that pick would turn out to be the No. 1 overall pick).
However, it's possible that Williams simply thought that people raised a good point about the draft and that he should get to pick his team, just as he got to pick his college when he was recruited as a high school player. (But with that said, it's still possible he would have chosen the Bears.)
At any rate, I've seen nothing yet to indicate that Williams doesn't like Bears ownership (and ownership is usually what gets a top QB prospect to not want to play for a team). While it's possible something could come up, I see nothing that tells me that there will be any outcome with the No. 1 overall pick than the Bears staying put and taking Williams.
2. The Commanders are taking a quarterback at No. 2 overall and the only question is who they take.
You say there were remarks made in an interview that the Commanders would be open to trade the No. 2 overall pick? Ask yourself why you think this must mean something.
The reality is this: Of course teams will say they are open to offers to trade a pick. That's GM-speak, folks. Most teams will say they are open to offers, but being open to offers doesn't mean you will accept an offer.
There's nothing to indicate that the Commanders are serious about trading down from No. 2 overall. They did add Marcus Mariota but he's a backup at this point. They also traded Sam Howell, so they are in need of a QB and taking one at No. 2 overall makes sense.
The only question I have is which QB they will take. While I would lean toward them taking Jayden Daniels, I could see them taking Drake Maye. I'm not convinced they take JJ McCarthy. But whether it's Daniels or Maye that they take, they'll take that QB No. 2 overall.
3. The Vikings want to trade up for a quarterback and the only question is who is the QB they love.
The Vikings have been in a slow rebuild the past couple of seasons and didn't let their 2022 NFC North title win dissuade them from staying the course with that rebuild.
Here they are now, at No. 11 overall, and swapping picks with the Houston Texans to acquire an additional first-round pick this year. The pick swap is similar to what the Buffalo Bills did in 2018, when they swapped picks with the Bengals (though they included offensive tackle Cordy Glenn) to move up in the first round.
In 2018, the Bills made another move up the board so they could draft Josh Allen. I do believe the Vikings have a similar intent to get a quarterback this year and will utilize the two firsts they have in a move up the board.
Again, the only question is which QB they love. That would likely explain why they haven't made another move up the board yet. And while they have likely done their best to determine who might be gone after the first two picks. it's not surprising they would wait until closer to draft day to, say, move up to No. 3.
One thing to remember is that teams will discuss potential draft-day moves before the draft and there could be an agreement in place with, say, the Patriots, but they and the Vikings might not make the deal if the draft board falls a certain way. But when it comes to the Vikings, I do see their moves about going after a QB, but it remains to be seen who the guy they love happens to be.
4. Jim Harbaugh really wants a wide receiver.
We've heard about Harbaugh talking up JJ McCarthy, a QB prospect in which there's some debate about how good he'll be and whether or not he's ready to start for NFL teams.
However, as Charles Robinson pointed out, Harbaugh has more reasons to talk up McCarthy than the fact that he coached him at University of Michigan. The Chargers have the No. 5 overall pick but there are two teams between them who could take a wide receiver.
That brings us to Marvin Harrison Jr., who is considered the best WR prospect in the draft. And while this is arguably a deep WR class, Harrison is viewed as a game changer at the position.
Given that the Chargers cut Mike Williams and traded Keenan Allen, they need a No. 1 wide receiver. If quarterbacks go off the board with the first four picks, the Chargers get their pick of all wide receivers, which would include Harrison.
So why wouldn't the Chargers head coach talk up the QB some call the fourth-best QB prospect but others have their doubts about how good he'll be? After all, Harbaugh wants to win, so if there's a receiver he loves, whether that's Harrison or somebody else, he'll want to ensure he gets him. Get QBs to go off with the first four picks and Harbaugh gets his wish.