The Future of NFL Teams Projected to Exceed the 2024 Salary Cap
A quick look at the teams (other than the Saints) who may not be cap compliant next season and where they stand.
Over the Cap's Jason Fitzgerald, in his latest podcast, went over the New Orleans Saints and the consequences of their decision to kick the cap can down the road, year after year.
The Saints, in 2024, are guaranteed to be in a terrible cap position, given their previous decisions to keep the band together, all while chasing more playoff runs.
It's true the Saints play in a weak division and still have a shot at either the NFC South title or a wild card spot. However, from a practical standpoint, the Saints are a mediocre team that, once Drew Brees retired, needed to break up the band.
Fitzgerald goes over what sets the Saints apart from other teams. While the Saints have done a lot of things in the short term to keep the roster intact, it's added more long-term costs, in which they have to keep restructuring players just to stay cap compliant.
Compare that to the Buccaneers, who did have issues with cap compliance but recognized that, after Tom Brady's retirement, it was time to reassess. They are simply getting by this season with Baker Mayfield but have stockpiled cap space in 2024. If the Buccaneers can find their long-term quarterback, they will be in a good position.
Other teams are expected to be above the cap in 2024, but none of them are in as desperate of a situation as the Saints. However, they all have to be careful not to fall into the trap the Saints did, for one reason or another.
With the Saints, I will refer you to Fitzgerald's latest podcast. Here's a brief look at the other teams who are projected to be above the cap once they get 51 players under contract.
Cleveland Browns: While the Browns are not that far above the projected cap in 2024, their biggest issue is the contract they gave to DeShaun Watson.
The Watson contract, a five-year deal with every dollar fully guaranteed, makes it impossible to cut him in 2024. The only ways out are to trade him (for which chances are slim to none) or to hope he retires.
Beyond that, the Browns don't have a lot of ways to get some cap space without restructuring deals. They will likely need to sit out free agency and do what they can in the draft, even as they have no first-round pick.
Los Angeles Chargers: Now that the Chargers have extended Justin Herbert, they no longer benefit from a quarterback on a cheap draft pick contract. They have been trying to keep the band together for several seasons, all while chasing the Chiefs in the AFC West.
However, unless they get to the Super Bowl, they cannot keep going down this path. Anything other than a Super Bowl trip means the Chargers need to start cutting the aging players.
It's true that Herbert has a lot of years ahead, but that doesn't mean the Chargers can keep the band together as it is. They need to get younger at other positions and not worry about keeping "big names" around.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills have been chasing a Super Bowl trip for several years. And there have been plenty of people (yours truly included) who believed that, at some point, the Bills will break through and finally get that Lombardi Trophy.
If they get it done in this year, the Bills can certainly talk about bringing the band together in 2024. If not, though, it's time to say goodbye to certain players.
The Bills could look at restructuring Josh Allen's contract but, otherwise, they have to be cautious. It may be frustrating for fans about the lack of a Super Bowl appearance, but the Bills can't force the issue.
Denver Broncos: The Russell Wilson trade and extension have both been major whiffs for the team. It will be painful to get out of the Wilson contract.
Unlike the Watson deal, though, the Broncos at least have an out. But they have to be realistic about things -- they do need to rebuild rather than assume they are just a few players away from a wild card spot.
The Broncos do have more flexibility than other teams to get under the cap, even if they cut Wilson. However, one thing is certain: They can't spend money in free agency like they did this past offseason.
San Francisco 49ers: The Niners are doing some great things but the trade up the 2021 draft board for Trey Lance didn't work out. And while Brock Purdy has done good things, it's still unsettled as to whether or not he's the guy to build around.
The Niners' focus for 2024 is similar to the Bills: If they get to the Super Bowl, they can try to keep everyone together for 2025, but if not, they'll have to be careful moving forward.
There may be a player or two whose deal could be restructured but they have to be careful about extensions for players who enter the final years of their deals. That's because those are the aging players and there's no guarantee they will be worth another long-term deal.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins have taken a step forward this season though it's not a given that they are going to the Super Bowl. Still, they at least have more room for optimism and might be able to do more to keep the band together.
One move likely to come is an extension for Tua Tagovailoa, which would help clear cap space for the Dolphins. After that, they can figure out other moves to make.
The only thing the Dolphins need to watch is how aggressive they are with other moves. While they can approach 2024 for a final Super Bowl push, assuming they don't make it this season, they don't want to risk too much in the long term.
Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys don't have to do a lot to get under the cap, but they do need to be careful about what they do to become cap compliant.
The Cowboys have usually sat out free agency, so that's not really an issue with their approach. The thing they will need to ask themselves is how many of their current players can they afford to keep.
They could look at an extension for CeeDee Lamb and they can consider an extension for Dak Prescott. Otherwise, it would be best to stand pat with contracts as they are.
Pittsburgh Steelers: While they are projected to be slightly under the cap in 2024, they will likely go over the limit once they get 51 players under contract.
For the Steelers, they need to keep in mind two things. First, they have to ask themselves if Kenny Pickett is the guy to build around. If they determine he's not, they need to draft a QB at some point in 2024.
Second, they need to ask themselves how much longer their aging players can be part of the roster. They are a team that may need to think about a soft rebuild, which would mean parting ways with older players, assuming said players don't retire.
In the weeks to come, I'll go into more detail about some of these teams and what they can do to become cap compliant, given their current situations.