The Game of Tag Is Nearly Finished
A look at the NFL franchise tag period for 2024. Also, is this the worst year for football cards?
We're just a little more than a week away from the start of the 2024 NFL league year and the free agency period that comes with it.
As of this writing, just two NFL players have received the franchise tag. The Bengals tagged wide receiver Tee Higgins and the Chiefs tagged cornerback L'Jarius Sneed.
I'm of the opinion that the Bengals should trade Higgins but that, of course, does not mean the Bengals will do that. The Chiefs reportedly will trade Sneed if they are unable to come to terms with him on a new contract.
I have previously mentioned that teams who tag players are in position to ask for a first-round pick as part of a trade package. That does not mean that teams will get such a pick in a trade package, but they do need to ask for at least one. The reason is simple: In trade negotiations, you always ask for more than you expect to get. If you don't expect to get a first, you should still ask for one, because then you are more likely to get what you expect.
Regarding the two players tagged thus far, I would say the pick the teams should expect to get depends on the team in question. A team with a pick in the earlier part of the rounds might mean the expectation of a second-round pick, plus a fifth- or sixth-round pick, is reasonable. For teams with a pick in the latter part of the rounds, the expectation may come closer to a first-round pick or to a second plus a third or fourth.
As for why other players have yet to be tagged, I offer you this quote from Andrew Brant: "Deadlines spur action." One can expect more players to get the tag in the next couple of days. Keep in mind that some teams may have more than one player they think is worthy of the tag, thus they may be hoping to get a player signed to a new deal before going to the tag.
As for other tag candidates, ones worth mentioning are Brian Burns with the Panthers, Josh Allen and Calvin Ridley with the Jaguars, Baker Mayfield and Antoine Winfield Jr. with the Buccaneers, Michael Pittman Jr. with the Colts and Justin Madubuike with the Ravens.
Once again, some of the names I mentioned may not get the tag. There could be another player out there who is a surprise tag candidate.
But once March 5 arrives, we'll get our answers about who is tagged and who will be available in free agency — and after that, we're likely to see more movement as far as trades and cuts. And then, of course, comes the so-called "legal tampering" period in which many free agents will agree to terms on new deals.
In other words, one of the fun parts about NFL free agency is about to begin.
On another note, I've written before about the sports card craze that happened during the COVID-19 pandemic. Between increased demand, inflation and other factors, prices for sports cards have increased — and some would say to the point that they are no longer affordable.
This is particularly true when it comes to football. I lurk at the forums at Blowout Cards and noticed one thread in particular, asking if 2023 has been the worst year for NFL football cards.
The first post raised the issue that the 2023 draft class is underwhelming, prices for wax are high, autographs for the top rookies are few in number and there are "no real winners for products."
On the first point, I disagree. CJ Stroud may be the player in demand the most but this is normal for quarterbacks to draw all the attention as rookies, particularly when one plays as well as Stroud did.
But there are others who did good things this past season, even if they didn't reach the heights Stroud reached. Puka Nucua, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice and DeVon Achane all looked good for the most part. There's still hope that Anthony Richardson will become a quality starter and one can't close the door yet on Bryce Young.
One thing to keep in mind about football cards is that quarterbacks drive the market, but other positions do not. However, at positions other than QB, their cards can achieve higher values over time if they prove to be among the elite. And while their card prices may not reach the heights of top QBs, they can still increase in value.
When it comes to prices for wax, that is particularly true for hobby boxes. Panini Legacy, a hobby-only product, used to be a reasonably-priced product but 2023 Legacy is selling for higher prices than it did in previous years. Panini Prizm prices have gone through the roof, to the point that it's tough to get any return on hobby wax product.
As for the retail sector, I had no objections to prices for blasters increasing from $20 to $25. But in some cases, the prices jumped to $30 or even $35, despite no increase in the number of cards. This happened with products like Prizm, which may cost more to produce, but the tradeoff in the days a blaster cost $20 was you got fewer cards per box than, say, for Score and Donruss.
While a $5 per blaster increase was something I expected, going up $5 for some and $10 or more for others makes less sense, especially when the number of cards per box remains the same for the more expensive products.
The autograph issue comes because Fanatics signed Bryce Young, CJ Stroud and Will Levis to exclusive contracts. Fanatics' NFL license doesn't kick in until 2026, so there's no autographed cards of those three QBs in their NFL uniforms in Panini products. Yet wax still sells for high prices, usually because collectors and breakers are chasing one-of-ones and case inserts.
In all likelihood, Panini Contenders may not be rolled out this year, because that product features autographed rookie cards. But because Panini can't get NFL-licensed autographs for Stroud, Young and Levis, that's three players who won't have autographed cards in that product, should it be released.
As for the "no real winners for products," that refers to no NFL sets that stand out in terms of product design or a concept that one might consider fun or interesting. Compare Panini products to Topps products. Topps rolls out lines like Heritage, Archives, Allen and Ginter and Stadium Club are among the products that have unique designs or concepts, while Panini tends to make just slight alterations on its base products, year in and year out.
There's also the issues with delays in the release of Panini products, which happened for multiple reasons ranging from Fanatics buying the factory that produces Panini products (at which now Topps products will be produced) to the NFLPA wanting to terminate its license with Panini, only for an arbitrator to rule that Panini may continue to release NFL product.
I'll admit to buying more basketball cards because I wanted to look for Victor Wembanyama cards, along with more baseball because I find more satisfaction with Topps products, and less football for reasons ranging from football product sells quicker on retail shelves to higher costs for hobby product.
It's certainly a trying time for the hobby as a whole and, with Fanatics soon to get exclusive control over baseball, football, basketball and a couple of other sports, it's anyone's guess as to what the future holds.
As always, I advise people who collect cards to remember to do what you find to get the most enjoyment out of the hobby. I still like to open wax because it's fun to see what you might get, though I have to remind myself to be selective.
But if your concerns is about prices, take the time to look for the cards of players that are doing well but aren't selling. That's the best way to get cards at reasonable prices, with the potential that they will gain more value in the future.