The Giants QB Conundrum
A team many thought would have a top five pick in 2023 is now 4-1. However, if the Giants make the playoffs, what will they do to get a quarterback?
The New York Giants are a team that some may have believed would be in the running for a top five pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Instead, they are 4-1 going into Week Six.
Some people are talking about the Giants heading to the playoffs. Many people are pegging Brian Daboll as the NFL Coach of the Year.
But the question we should be asking is this: After the 2022 season, what are they going to do about the quarterback position?
Daboll and new Giants general manager Joe Schoen both came from the Buffalo Bills and likely wanted to approach 2022 in a similar fashion the Bills did when Sean McDermott became head coach and Brandon Beane became general manager in 2017.
The McDermott-Beane approach was simple: Get rid of players from the previous regime who don't fit our vision for the team, acquire more draft capital, but do explore the possibility of acquiring players in trade if we think they fit our vision.
The Bills in 2017 made quite a few moves involving draft capital, some of it in which they dealt players for picks, but in a couple of instances, acquired a player for a pick. Most notable is their move down the 2017 first round with the Chiefs, a move that saw the Chiefs take none other than Patrick Mahomes.
In 2017, the Bills didn't have a lot of draft capital, making just six picks, but entered 2018 with more selections. They made a move up the board, prior to the draft, with the Bengals to get closer to the top 10, then made another move up on draft day, taking Josh Allen with the seventh overall pick. They finished with eight total selections, including another first-round selection, that being Tremaine Edmunds.
The Giants under Daboll and Schoen have taken a similar approach in 2022. They passed on the QB draft class and have sought to move on from players from the previous regime that don't fit their vision. On the other hand, the Giants made 11 total selections in the 2022 draft and haven't had as much luck acquiring picks for players they didn't want to keep.
The Bills made the playoffs in their first year under McDermott, but still had Tyrod Taylor under contract (though they did renegotiate his contract before the 2017 season). They did trade Taylor and keep Matt Barkley as their "veteran presence" in the 1018 offseason. Still, the draft capital the Bills accumulated in 2018 gave them a chance to find their quarterback that year.
The Giants, though, could find things more challenging. They currently have nine total picks in the 2023 draft and are projected to have nearly $50M in effective cap space (that is, cap space remaining after getting 51 players under contract). They have the cap space to explore free agency, but don't have multiple firsts like the Bills did in 2018.
But if they make the playoffs, it raises the question about how they will go about getting the quarterback they believe can be the face of the franchise, given they would have fewer draft resources to make a move up the board. They were correct to not exercise the fifth-year option for Daniel Jones, and even though the Giants are winning, Jones isn't the long-term guy.
But who would that be? Free agency in 2023 won't have ideal options. Lamar Jackson is certain to get the franchise tag if he doesn't agree to an extension after the 2022 season. Baker Mayfield will be available, but is he really the guy? What could Jimmy Garoppolo and Geno Smith demand, even if their ceilings are known?
The draft might be an option, but that depends on how the quarterback prospects look and how the draft board plays out. Were the draft to happen today, these are the teams who draft in the top eight: Panthers, Raiders, Steelers, Lions, Texans, Commanders, Bears, Falcons.
The Panthers, Lions, Texans, Commanders and Falcons are all unlikely to trade down, because they all need quarterbacks. The Steelers' willingness depends on how much they like Kenny Pickett. The Raiders' willingness depends on how much longer they want to stick with Derek Carr. As for the Bears, how much do they believe in Justin Fields?
Perhaps a trade for a quarterback is the answer. On one hand, if the Raiders do finish with a top five pick, they may prefer to draft a QB. On the other hand, how much do they want for Carr? And is that going to guarantee the Giants stay in the playoff hunt? Perhaps it would in the NFC, in which the competition is weaker overall. However, the NFC East has two quality teams who have their quarterback in the fold.
Maybe the answer, then, is to hope the Bears finish with the No. 1 pick and they decide to draft another QB, allowing the Giants to inquire about Fields. Of course, that depends on whether or not Daboll and Schoen look at Fields and say to each other, "Yeah, Fields is our guy."
Or perhaps things play out like they did in 2018, in which not only did the Bills get Allen, but Jackson fell down the board and the Ravens traded back into the first round to take him. That worked out pretty well, didn't it?
Whatever it is the Giants decide to do, it should be about finding their guy above all else, not about pacifying whatever pundits are out there. For example, you're likely to hear about how the Giants must do whatever it takes to extend Saquon Barkley, but that's exactly what the Giants should not be doing. (Also, while that isn't about a quarterback, you can already see the "gotta re-sign Barkley" takes warming up.)
The Bills' philosophy of "find our guy and get him" worked out pretty well for them, even after they passed on a QB who turned into one of the best in the NFL. It would not surprise me if the Giants have taken that same philosophy, meaning they aren't going to grab the first guy they see.
The only challenge ahead for the Giants is how they go about this process. There are still a lot of games left to play and there's no telling how the final draft order will play out.
But while things are going well for the Giants thus far, it's not the first season that tells you how good a regime will be, but the second season and beyond. And for the Giants to have a chance at continued success, they will need to think about how they are going to get their guy, whoever that may be.